Photo: RollyGagne · CC BY-SA 4.0St-Pierre-Jolys is on Canada’s flood inventory: 2 listed, led by Hydrologic Forecasting and Water Management Branch of Manitoba Transporation and Infrastructure
Little of the land around St-Pierre-Jolys has burned: 0.1% within 25 km since 1986, or 0.002% a year. Shaking is less of a worry than in most places, at $0.006 a year per $1,000 of building value ($0.030 typical). In Health Canada’s survey, 9.7% of homes tested in St-Pierre-Jolys’ area exceeded 200 Bq/m³, close to the typical 6.6%. Hazard risk gives St-Pierre-Jolys a grade of A−; its wildfire band pulls it down.
What stands out about St-Pierre-Jolys’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for St-Pierre-Jolys: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What St-Pierre-Jolys faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in St-Pierre-Jolys: A−
The grade weighs St-Pierre-Jolys’ seismic risk and radon equally, and wildfire is one-sided: a high band counts against a town, a low one earns nothing.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Wildfire is rare near St-Pierre-Jolys: 0.1% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0% within 5 km
Past fire around St-Pierre-Jolys’ homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
In a typical year 0.002% of the land near St-Pierre-Jolys burns; the typical Canadian town sees 0.000%, and both are low.
Fire has stayed at least 20 km from St-Pierre-Jolys’ homes since 1986.
Only 0% of the land within 25 km of St-Pierre-Jolys is forest fuel, and 0% close in.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Manitoba · highest of 190
At 0.002% a year, St-Pierre-Jolys is near the top in Manitoba: 31st of 190, behind Flin Flon (Part) (1.68%).
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
St-Pierre-Jolys is in the low band with 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns; 7.5% sit in moderate or higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Flooding around St-Pierre-Jolys is mapped in 2 studies, the newest by Hydrologic Forecasting and Water Management Branch of Manitoba Transporation and Infrastructure
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for St-Pierre-Jolys: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
Hydrologic Forecasting and Water Management Branch of Manitoba Transporation and Infrastructure and others have studied flooding in areas that include St-Pierre-Jolys: 2 studies, the latest from 2025.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hydrodynamic Modelling Study for the Red River | Hydrologic Forecasting and Water Management Branch of Manitoba Transporation and Infrastructure | 2025 | final · not public |
| Rat and Roseau River 2D Hydrodynamic Modeling Study | Manitoba Infrastructure | 2022 | final · not public |
Towns with a flood study on file
Only 18% of towns in Manitoba have a flood study, short of Canada’s 58%; St-Pierre-Jolys is one of them.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Nothing here counts toward Risk; the studies are pointers to the maps their owners keep for St-Pierre-Jolys.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Earthquakes cost buildings in St-Pierre-Jolys just $0.006 per $1,000 a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
St-Pierre-Jolys’ $0.006 is a fraction of the typical town’s $0.030 (0.2 times as much): quiet ground by Canadian standards.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Shaking damage around St-Pierre-Jolys runs at $0.006 a year, near the $0.006 of the typical town in Manitoba; Virden has $0.007.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
88% of Canada’s 2,611 towns expect more shaking damage than St-Pierre-Jolys.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Roads, pipes and bridges aren’t in St-Pierre-Jolys’ figure, nor landslides or tsunami: it is buildings and shaking.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
9.7% of homes tested around St-Pierre-Jolys are over the radon guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
The survey area of St-Pierre-Jolys reads 9.7%, a shade from the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
St-Pierre-Jolys’ area, at 9.7%, is close to the median in Manitoba (12%).
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
St-Pierre-Jolys is in the 5–10% band with 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 26% have more.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Basements, soil and how a house is sealed decide its radon, so in St-Pierre-Jolys only a test can say.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Area behind the radon tests figures: the South Eastman health region
Weather and fire alerts for St-Pierre-Jolys
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for St-Pierre-Jolys; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
For fires near St-Pierre-Jolys, the national fire information system maps danger and active fires daily; local authorities give any evacuation order.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around St-Pierre-Jolys
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St-Pierre-Jolys | Low | $0.006 | 9.7% | Yes |
| De Salaberry 4,401 · 5.7 km | Low | $0.005 | 9.7% | Yes |
| Mitchell 19,950 · 16 km | Moderate | $0.005 | 9.7% | Yes |
| Niverville 7,277 · 18 km | Low | $0.005 | 9.7% | Yes |
Next door, Mitchell sits in a moderate fire band; St-Pierre-Jolys is low.
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what St-Pierre-Jolys faces
What to do about the hazards St-Pierre-Jolys faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; St-Pierre-Jolys’ figure is its subdivision’s.
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around St-Pierre-Jolys’ homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. Flood studies cover areas of every size, which is why the page lists them for St-Pierre-Jolys without grading them.
- Radon is a survey. Radon figures pool the survey’s home tests by area: postal areas once their boundaries arrive, the 2007 health region around St-Pierre-Jolys until then.
Questions about flooding and hazards in St-Pierre-Jolys
How big is the earthquake risk in St-Pierre-Jolys?
NRCan’s model expects shaking to cost buildings in St-Pierre-Jolys $0.006 a year for every $1,000 of their value, on average over many years.
Is radon a problem in St-Pierre-Jolys?
In Health Canada’s survey, 9.7% of 113 homes tested in St-Pierre-Jolys’ area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
Does St-Pierre-Jolys flood?
A flood study covers St-Pierre-Jolys on Canada’s Flood Map Inventory; open the owner’s map to check a street, since flood isn’t graded.
Is St-Pierre-Jolys at risk of wildfire?
Less than most of Canada: 0.1% of the land within 25 km of St-Pierre-Jolys has burned since 1986, the last in 2015, a low band that leaves Risk alone.
How is St-Pierre-Jolys’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
St-Pierre-Jolys’ Hazard risk grade is A−, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).