Photo: Mennowiki · CC BY-SA 4.0Flood mapping exists for Mitchell: 2 on record, latest by Hydrologic Forecasting and Water Management Branch of Manitoba Transporation and Infrastructure
The burn rate around Mitchell is 0.11% a year (3.2% of the land within 25 km since 1986), a moderate band. Seismic risk runs low: $0.005 of expected damage per $1,000 of buildings a year, the typical town $0.030. In Health Canada’s survey, 9.7% of homes tested in Mitchell’s area exceeded 200 Bq/m³, close to the typical 6.6%. Hazard risk gives Mitchell a grade of A−; its wildfire band pulls it down.
What stands out about Mitchell’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Mitchell: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Mitchell faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Mitchell grades A− for hazard risk
Earthquake risk and radon make Mitchell’s grade; wildfire can only lower it, never raise it, and flood studies are listed but not scored.
Its place: #1 of 185 in Manitoba and #635 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Fire reaches the land around Mitchell: 0% within 5 km, 3.2% within 25 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Mitchell’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
Moderate: the land around Mitchell burns at 0.11% a year, where the typical Canadian town sees 0.000%.
Forest makes up 0% of the land within 5 km of Mitchell and 1.2% within 25 km, little for a forest fire to run through.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Manitoba · highest of 189
The land around Mitchell burns at 0.11% a year, the 13th highest rate of 189 towns in Manitoba; Flin Flon (Part) tops it at 1.68%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Mitchell is in the moderate band, which holds 5.4% of Canada’s 2,610 towns; 2.1% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Flooding around Mitchell is mapped in 2 studies, the newest by Hydrologic Forecasting and Water Management Branch of Manitoba Transporation and Infrastructure
Flood studies whose area touches Mitchell, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
Hydrologic Forecasting and Water Management Branch of Manitoba Transporation and Infrastructure and others have studied flooding in areas that include Mitchell: 2 studies, the latest from 2025.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hydrodynamic Modelling Study for the Red River | Hydrologic Forecasting and Water Management Branch of Manitoba Transporation and Infrastructure | 2025 | final · not public |
| Rat and Roseau River 2D Hydrodynamic Modeling Study | Manitoba Infrastructure | 2022 | final · not public |
Towns with a flood study on file
Flood maps are thinner in Manitoba, 18% of towns against 58% nationally, but Mitchell has one.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Nothing here counts toward Risk; the studies are pointers to the maps their owners keep for Mitchell.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Low seismic risk in Mitchell: $0.005 per $1,000 of buildings a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Shaking costs the typical town $0.030 a year; in Mitchell it is only $0.005, 0.2 times as much.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
The median in Manitoba is $0.006; Mitchell, at $0.005, is right beside it, and Virden tops the list at $0.007.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Mitchell is among Canada’s quietest towns for earthquakes: 96% of the 2,611 expect more damage.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The model counts damage to Mitchell’s buildings and their occupants from shaking only: not liquefaction, landslides, tsunami or fires after a quake.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Some radon around Mitchell: 9.7% of area homes over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
9.7% of tested homes around Mitchell were over the guideline, much like the typical Canadian town at 6.6%. Nobody publishes radon tests for Mitchell alone, so this card uses the figure for the South Eastman health region.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Around Mitchell, 9.7% of tests topped the guideline, about the same as the typical town in Manitoba (12%).
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Between 5% and 10% of tests over the guideline: Mitchell, and 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 26% are higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
The survey sampled homes around Mitchell; it can’t tell you your basement’s level.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Mitchell
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Mitchell; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
For fires near Mitchell, the national fire information system maps danger and active fires daily; local authorities give any evacuation order.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Mitchell
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell | Moderate | $0.005 | 9.7% | Yes |
| Steinbach 21,671 · 7.7 km | Moderate | $0.005 | 9.7% | None listed |
| St-Pierre-Jolys 1,371 · 16 km | Low | $0.006 | 9.7% | Yes |
| La Broquerie 7,808 · 17 km | High | $0.005 | 9.7% | Yes |
| De Salaberry 4,401 · 18 km | Low | $0.005 | 9.7% | Yes |
Fire is heaviest around La Broquerie (high), against moderate for Mitchell.
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Mitchell faces
Practical steps for Mitchell’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- How close is the forest edge?
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Radon is a survey. Radon figures pool the survey’s home tests by area: postal areas once their boundaries arrive, the 2007 health region around Mitchell until then.
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; Mitchell’s figure is its subdivision’s.
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around Mitchell’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. Flood studies cover areas of every size, which is why the page lists them for Mitchell without grading them.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Mitchell
Is radon a problem in Mitchell?
The area’s survey found 9.7% of 113 tested homes above Health Canada’s guideline, so a three-month test is worth doing in Mitchell.
How big is the earthquake risk in Mitchell?
About $0.005 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Mitchell.
Is Mitchell at risk of wildfire?
Some, but Mitchell’s moderate band (3.2% of nearby land burned since 1986, latest 2024) is short of the level that counts.
How is Mitchell’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Mitchell grades A− for hazard risk, from earthquakes and radon, with wildfire counted only where it lowers the grade.
Does Mitchell flood?
A flood study covers Mitchell on Canada’s Flood Map Inventory; open the owner’s map to check a street, since flood isn’t graded.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).