Photo: Robert Linsdell from St. Andrews, Canada · CC BY 2.0A flood study covers St. Adolphe: 1 on the national inventory, the newest from Hydrologic Forecasting and Water Management Branch of Manitoba Transporation and Infrastructure
Since 1986 almost nothing has burned near St. Adolphe: 0% of the land within 25 km, or 0.000% a year. Earthquakes matter little: NRCan’s model puts building losses at $0.005 a year per $1,000 of value, against $0.030 for the typical town. St. Adolphe’s survey area, 9.7% over the radon guideline, is close to the typical town’s 6.6%. Hazard risk gives St. Adolphe a grade of A−, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about St. Adolphe’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for St. Adolphe: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What St. Adolphe faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
St. Adolphe grades A− for hazard risk
Two inputs always count for St. Adolphe, earthquakes and radon; the third, wildfire, counts only against a town.
Its place: #1 of 185 in Manitoba and #635 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Little of the land around St. Adolphe has burned: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km since 1986
Past fire around St. Adolphe’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
Fire claims 0.000% of the land around St. Adolphe each year, a low band, with the typical Canadian town at 0.000%.
With 0% forest fuel within 5 km and 0% within 25 km, the land around St. Adolphe gives a fire little to burn.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Manitoba · highest of 189
Among the 189 towns in Manitoba, Flin Flon (Part) burns fastest (1.68% a year); St. Adolphe is with the 60 near zero.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
St. Adolphe shares the low band with 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns, its burn rate rounding to nothing; 7.5% burn faster.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
A flood study covers St. Adolphe, from Hydrologic Forecasting and Water Management Branch of Manitoba Transporation and Infrastructure : 1 on the inventory
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for St. Adolphe: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
Hydrologic Forecasting and Water Management Branch of Manitoba Transporation and Infrastructure studied flooding in an area that includes St. Adolphe (2025); open its map to see which streets lie in a flood zone.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hydrodynamic Modelling Study for the Red River | Hydrologic Forecasting and Water Management Branch of Manitoba Transporation and Infrastructure | 2025 | final · not public |
Towns with a flood study on file
Mapping in Manitoba reaches 18% of towns, St. Adolphe among them, below the 58% across Canada.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood studies don’t enter the grade; they are listed so you can open the official map for St. Adolphe.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Earthquakes cost buildings in St. Adolphe just $0.005 per $1,000 a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
0.2 times the typical $0.030: St. Adolphe’s $0.005 is low for Canada.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Typical for its province: St. Adolphe at $0.005 beside a median in Manitoba of $0.006, with Virden on top at $0.007.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
St. Adolphe is among Canada’s quietest towns for earthquakes: 96% of the 2,611 expect more damage.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Roads, pipes and bridges aren’t in St. Adolphe’s figure, nor landslides or tsunami: it is buildings and shaking.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Some radon around St. Adolphe: 9.7% of area homes over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
At 9.7% over the guideline, the area around St. Adolphe is about level with the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%. For radon tests, the only official count covers all of the South Eastman health region, St. Adolphe included.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
St. Adolphe’s area, at 9.7%, is close to the median in Manitoba (12%).
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
26% of Canada’s 2,611 towns have more homes over 200 Bq/m³ than St. Adolphe’s 5–10% band, which holds 37%.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
The share describes the area, not a house: in St. Adolphe as anywhere, test to be sure.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for St. Adolphe
Alerts for St. Adolphe come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Alert Ready carries evacuation orders for St. Adolphe to phones; CWFIS shows the day’s fire danger.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How St. Adolphe’s neighbours compare on hazards
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Adolphe | Low | $0.005 | 9.7% | Yes |
| Niverville 7,277 · 7.1 km | Low | $0.005 | 9.7% | Yes |
| St. Norbert 8,251 · 13 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | Yes |
| La Salle 9,215 · 14 km | Low | $0.006 | 43% | Yes |
| Richmond West 6,114 · 15 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| South Pointe 8,168 · 15 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| Fort Richmond 11,563 · 15 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
The neighbour with the most fire is Niverville (low), still no more than St. Adolphe (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what St. Adolphe faces
What to do about the hazards St. Adolphe faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around St. Adolphe’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
- Radon is a survey. The radon share comes from about 14,000 long-term home tests in 2009–2011, pooled for now by the 2007 health region St. Adolphe sits in.
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; St. Adolphe’s figure is its subdivision’s.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. A study’s area can be a whole watershed or province, so being on the inventory says a map exists, not that a home in St. Adolphe floods.
Questions about flooding and hazards in St. Adolphe
Does St. Adolphe flood?
St. Adolphe’s area has been studied for flooding, and the owner’s map shows which streets lie in a zone; the grade leaves flood out.
How is St. Adolphe’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
St. Adolphe’s Hazard risk grade is A−, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Is St. Adolphe at risk of wildfire?
The burned-area record shows next to nothing around St. Adolphe (0% within 25 km since 1986), so its band is low.
How big is the earthquake risk in St. Adolphe?
In NRCan’s seismic model, St. Adolphe’s buildings lose $0.005 per $1,000 of value in an average year.
Is radon a problem in St. Adolphe?
Around St. Adolphe, 113 survey homes were tested and 9.7% came in over 200 Bq/m³, a guide to the area, not to any one home.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).