Photo: Suburban Rapid Transit Co. via Winnipeg Electric Co. · Public domainRadon is Headingley’s main hazard: 43% of tested homes in its area top Health Canada’s guideline
Wildfire isn’t Headingley’s worry: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986 (0.000% a year). Earthquakes matter little: NRCan’s model puts building losses at $0.006 a year per $1,000 of value, against $0.030 for the typical town. Headingley grades C+ for hazard risk; wildfire is low here, so it earns no credit.
What stands out about Headingley’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Headingley: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Headingley faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Headingley grades C+ for hazard risk
Seismic risk and radon set Headingley’s grade, wildfire can drag it down, and flood mapping stays out of it.
Its place: #174 of 185 in Manitoba and #1,819 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Wildfire is rare near Headingley: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0% within 5 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Headingley’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
Forty years of fire maps put Headingley at 0.000% a year, low next to the typical Canadian town’s 0.000%.
Only 0% of the land within 25 km of Headingley is forest fuel, and 0% close in.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Manitoba · highest of 189
To three decimals the burn rate around Headingley is zero, as for 60 of the 189 towns in Manitoba, while Flin Flon (Part) reaches 1.68%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
The low band holds 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns, and Headingley sits at its very bottom; only 7.5% are above it.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Manitoba Infrastructure has mapped flooding for Headingley (1 study)
Flood studies whose area touches Headingley, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
A 2019 study by Manitoba Infrastructure covers Headingley, and its map, not the inventory, shows the zones.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lower Assiniboine River | Manitoba Infrastructure | 2019 | final · not public |
Towns with a flood study on file
Its flood study sets Headingley apart in Manitoba, where 18% of towns have one (Canada: 58%).
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
The grade leaves flood out, since a study area says nothing about how many of Headingley’s homes are at risk.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Low seismic risk in Headingley: $0.006 per $1,000 of buildings a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Shaking costs the typical town $0.030 a year; in Headingley it is only $0.006, 0.2 times as much.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Neither high nor low in Manitoba: Headingley’s $0.006 sits by the median of $0.006, while Virden reaches $0.007.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Toward the quiet end of Canada’s range: 88% of its 2,611 towns sit above Headingley.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The model counts damage to Headingley’s buildings and their occupants from shaking only: not liquefaction, landslides, tsunami or fires after a quake.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
43% of homes tested around Headingley are over the radon guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline. · Area-wide: radon tests, counted over the Central health region
At 43% over the guideline, the area around Headingley beats the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Radon runs higher around Headingley than in most towns in Manitoba: 43% over the guideline (12% is typical), 7.4% over 600.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Headingley is in the top band, 30% or more, with just 1.5% of Canada’s towns.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
One home in Headingley can be high while next door is low; a three-month test settles it.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Headingley
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Headingley; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
In fire season, check CWFIS for danger and active fires around Headingley, and listen to local authorities for orders.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Headingley
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headingley | Low | $0.006 | 43% | Yes |
| Glendale 3,586 · 4.6 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | Yes |
| Westdale 5,339 · 4.7 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | Yes |
| Buchanan 3,473 · 5.3 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | Yes |
| Betsworth 7,476 · 5.9 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | Yes |
| Westwood 5,716 · 6.2 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| Crestview 8,658 · 6.2 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
None of the places around has more fire nearby than Headingley (low); Glendale comes closest (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Headingley faces
Practical steps for Headingley’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as Headingley’s.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. A study’s area can be a whole watershed or province, so being on the inventory says a map exists, not that a home in Headingley floods.
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of Headingley’s homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
- Radon is a survey. The radon share comes from about 14,000 long-term home tests in 2009–2011, pooled for now by the 2007 health region Headingley sits in.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Headingley
How big is the earthquake risk in Headingley?
About $0.006 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Headingley.
Is Headingley at risk of wildfire?
Very little by the national record: Headingley’s band is low, with 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, so wildfire doesn’t change its grade.
How is Headingley’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Headingley’s Hazard risk grade is C+, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Is radon a problem in Headingley?
The area’s survey found 43% of 108 tested homes above Health Canada’s guideline, so a three-month test is worth doing in Headingley.
Does Headingley flood?
Headingley’s area has been studied for flooding, and the owner’s map shows which streets lie in a zone; the grade leaves flood out.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).