Photo: Rkehler3 · CC BY-SA 3.0A flood study covers Emerson-Franklin: 2 on the national inventory, the newest from Hydrologic Forecasting and Water Management Branch of Manitoba Transporation and Infrastructure
Wildfire is rare near Emerson-Franklin: 1.5% of the land within 25 km has burned since 1986, a burn rate of 0.04% a year. Shaking is less of a worry than in most places, at $0.005 a year per $1,000 of building value ($0.030 typical). Radon around Emerson-Franklin is ordinary for Canada: 9.7% of tested homes over the guideline (6.6% typical). Hazard risk gives Emerson-Franklin a grade of A−; its wildfire band pulls it down.
What stands out about Emerson-Franklin’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Emerson-Franklin: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Emerson-Franklin faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Emerson-Franklin: A−
Earthquake risk and radon make Emerson-Franklin’s grade; wildfire can only lower it, never raise it, and flood studies are listed but not scored.
Its place: #1 of 185 in Manitoba and #635 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Wildfire is rare near Emerson-Franklin: 1.5% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0% within 5 km
Past fire around Emerson-Franklin’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
In a typical year 0.04% of the land near Emerson-Franklin burns; the typical Canadian town sees 0.000%, and both are low.
Emerson-Franklin’s homes have had no fire within 5 km since 1986; the closest was 6.3 km away.
Land that isn’t forest covers nearly all the ground around Emerson-Franklin: forest fuel is 0% within 5 km and 0.1% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Manitoba · highest of 189
The land around Emerson-Franklin burns at 0.04% a year, the 21st highest rate of 189 towns in Manitoba; Flin Flon (Part) tops it at 1.68%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
7.5% of Canada’s 2,610 towns burn fast enough to rank moderate or above; Emerson-Franklin stays low, with 92%.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
2 flood studies cover Emerson-Franklin, the newest from Hydrologic Forecasting and Water Management Branch of Manitoba Transporation and Infrastructure
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Emerson-Franklin: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
Hydrologic Forecasting and Water Management Branch of Manitoba Transporation and Infrastructure and others have studied flooding in areas that include Emerson-Franklin: 2 studies, the latest from 2025.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hydrodynamic Modelling Study for the Red River | Hydrologic Forecasting and Water Management Branch of Manitoba Transporation and Infrastructure | 2025 | final · not public |
| Rat and Roseau River 2D Hydrodynamic Modeling Study | Manitoba Infrastructure | 2022 | final · not public |
Towns with a flood study on file
Mapping in Manitoba reaches 18% of towns, Emerson-Franklin among them, below the 58% across Canada.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
The grade leaves flood out, since a study area says nothing about how many of Emerson-Franklin’s homes are at risk.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Little shaking expected in Emerson-Franklin: $0.005 a year per $1,000
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
At $0.005 per $1,000, Emerson-Franklin carries 0.2 times the typical Canadian town’s earthquake risk ($0.030): low.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Shaking damage around Emerson-Franklin runs at $0.005 a year, near the $0.006 of the typical town in Manitoba; Virden has $0.007.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Emerson-Franklin is among Canada’s quietest towns for earthquakes: 96% of the 2,611 expect more damage.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Roads, pipes and bridges aren’t in Emerson-Franklin’s figure, nor landslides or tsunami: it is buildings and shaking.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Some radon around Emerson-Franklin: 9.7% of area homes over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
Around Emerson-Franklin, 9.7% of tested homes topped the guideline, near the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%. Emerson-Franklin doesn’t get its own radon tests figures; the ones here come from the South Eastman health region.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Emerson-Franklin’s area, at 9.7%, is close to the median in Manitoba (12%).
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Between 5% and 10% of tests over the guideline: Emerson-Franklin, and 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 26% are higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
The share describes the area, not a house: in Emerson-Franklin as anywhere, test to be sure.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Emerson-Franklin
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Emerson-Franklin; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
For fires near Emerson-Franklin, the national fire information system maps danger and active fires daily; local authorities give any evacuation order.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Get ready for what Emerson-Franklin faces
Practical steps for Emerson-Franklin’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Radon is a survey. The radon share comes from about 14,000 long-term home tests in 2009–2011, pooled for now by the 2007 health region Emerson-Franklin sits in.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. A study’s area can be a whole watershed or province, so being on the inventory says a map exists, not that a home in Emerson-Franklin floods.
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of Emerson-Franklin’s homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as Emerson-Franklin’s.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Emerson-Franklin
How is Emerson-Franklin’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Emerson-Franklin grades A− for hazard risk, from earthquakes and radon, with wildfire counted only where it lowers the grade.
Is Emerson-Franklin at risk of wildfire?
Not much by Canadian standards: Emerson-Franklin’s band is low, with 1.5% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986 (last in 2012), so wildfire doesn’t change its grade.
Does Emerson-Franklin flood?
Emerson-Franklin’s area has been studied for flooding, and the owner’s map shows which streets lie in a zone; the grade leaves flood out.
How big is the earthquake risk in Emerson-Franklin?
In NRCan’s seismic model, Emerson-Franklin’s buildings lose $0.005 per $1,000 of value in an average year.
Is radon a problem in Emerson-Franklin?
9.7% of the 113 homes Health Canada tested around Emerson-Franklin topped the guideline; your own house needs its own test.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).