Photo: Buiobuione · CC BY-SA 4.0Earthquakes are Tofino’s biggest hazard: $0.50 of damage a year per $1,000 of buildings, 17 times the norm
Little of the land around Tofino has burned: 0.1% within 25 km since 1986, or 0.001% a year. Fewer homes than usual carry radon here, 0.9% over the guideline where the typical town has 6.6%. Hazard risk gives Tofino a grade of B−, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Tofino’s hazards
For Tofino, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Tofino faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Tofino grades B− for hazard risk
Seismic risk and radon set Tofino’s grade, wildfire can drag it down, and flood mapping stays out of it.
Its place: #125 of 254 in British Columbia and #1,639 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Few fires near Tofino: 0% within 5 km, 0.1% within 25 km
Past fire around Tofino’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
The yearly burn rate around Tofino is 0.001%, low beside 0.000% for the typical Canadian town.
Nothing inside 5 km of Tofino’s homes has burned since 1986, and the nearest scar is 24 km off.
Near or far, forest fuel covers a similar share around Tofino: 94% within 5 km and 97% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in British Columbia · highest of 255
Some fire is mapped around Tofino (0.001% a year), but it ranks only 239th of 255 towns in British Columbia; Oliver has 0.98%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Beside 2,610 Canadian towns, Tofino reads low, with 92% of them; only 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Tofino is on the flood map inventory: 2 studies, latest by District of Tofino
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Tofino: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
The newest of 2 studies covering Tofino is District of Tofino’s, from 2023; open its map to see the zones.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Coast Probabilistic Earthquake and Tsunami Risk Assessment | District of Tofino | 2023 | final · not public |
| District of Tofino Coastal Flood Mapping | District of Tofino | 2019 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
76% of towns in British Columbia have a flood study, more than Canada’s 58%; Tofino has one too.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
No single decade dominates: 2 studies for Tofino between the 2010s and the 2020s.
Study dates as the NRCan inventory lists them, one count per study touching Tofino.
Flood mapping is shown for Tofino to be opened and checked, never turned into a grade.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Earthquakes cost buildings in Tofino $0.50 per $1,000 a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
Roughly 16.7 times the typical $0.030: Tofino’s $0.50 marks real seismic exposure.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Above the middle in British Columbia: Tofino’s $0.50 against a median of $0.36, with Duncan highest at $1.33.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Tofino is in the top tenth of Canada’s 2,611 towns for earthquake risk; 1.2% rank higher.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Only shaking damage to buildings in Tofino is counted; landslides, liquefaction, tsunami and fire after a quake aren’t.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Little radon around Tofino: 0.9% of area homes over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
Radon runs below the typical Canadian town (6.6%) in Tofino’s area, at 0.9%. Tofino doesn’t get its own radon tests figures; the ones here come from the Central Vancouver Island health region.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Radon runs lower around Tofino than in most towns in British Columbia: 0.9% against 1.8%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Under 5% puts Tofino with 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 63% have more high tests.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
A low area share in Tofino doesn’t clear a house, nor does a high one condemn it: test.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Where to get warnings in Tofino
Alerts for Tofino come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Evacuation orders for Tofino come from the municipality or the province, while CWFIS maps fire danger every day.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Get ready for what Tofino faces
Practical steps for Tofino’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap the water heater down.
- Keep 72 hours of supplies.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
- Is earthquake cover included?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in Tofino.
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, Tofino takes its 2007 health region’s share.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Seismic risk is NRCan’s model of yearly building losses from shaking, averaged over many years and given for Tofino’s census subdivision (a neighbourhood shows its city’s).
- Wildfire counts one way. For Tofino, wildfire means how much nearby land burned in the past forty years, a one-way input that can pull Risk down and nothing more.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Tofino
How is Tofino’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Tofino’s Hazard risk grade is B−, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Is Tofino at risk of wildfire?
Some, but Tofino’s low band (0.1% of nearby land burned since 1986, latest 1987) is short of the level that counts.
Is radon a problem in Tofino?
The area’s survey found 0.9% of 109 tested homes above Health Canada’s guideline, so a three-month test is worth doing in Tofino.
How big is the earthquake risk in Tofino?
NRCan’s model expects shaking to cost buildings in Tofino $0.50 a year for every $1,000 of their value, on average over many years.
Does Tofino flood?
The inventory lists a study touching Tofino; whether a given street floods is on that map, not in the grade.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).