Photo: David Stanley from Nanaimo, Canada · CC BY 2.0Earthquakes are Shawnigan’s biggest hazard: $0.57 of damage a year per $1,000 of buildings, 19 times the norm
Wildfire is rare near Shawnigan: 0.3% of the land within 25 km has burned since 1986, a burn rate of 0.008% a year. Radon is lower than usual: 0.9% of tested homes in the survey area topped the guideline, against 6.6% for the typical town. Hazard risk gives Shawnigan a grade of B−; its wildfire band pulls it down.
What stands out about Shawnigan’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Shawnigan: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Shawnigan faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Shawnigan: B−
Risk averages earthquakes and radon; wildfire joins only where it pulls the average down, so a town like Shawnigan with little fire nearby would get no credit for it.
Its place: #129 of 254 in British Columbia and #1,645 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Few fires near Shawnigan: 0% within 5 km, 0.3% within 25 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Shawnigan’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
The land within 25 km of Shawnigan burns at 0.008% a year on average, the low band; the typical Canadian town: 0.000%.
Shawnigan’s homes have had no fire within 5 km since 1986; the closest was 6.7 km away.
Near or far, forest fuel covers a similar share around Shawnigan: 77% within 5 km and 75% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in British Columbia · highest of 255
In the upper half in British Columbia but far from Oliver (0.98%): Shawnigan ranks 104th of 255, at 0.008% a year.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Low, like 92% of the country’s 2,610 towns: the land around Shawnigan burns, but slower than in the 7.5% above it.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
A flood study covers Shawnigan, from Cowichan Valley Regional District: 1 on the inventory
Flood studies whose area touches Shawnigan, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
Cowichan Valley Regional District holds the flood mapping that covers Shawnigan (2020), linked below.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shawnigan Lake Flood Preparedness Monitoring Project | Cowichan Valley Regional District | 2020 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
76% of towns in British Columbia have a flood study, more than Canada’s 58%; Shawnigan has one too.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Listed, not scored: a flood study proves a map exists, not that Shawnigan floods.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Shaking is Shawnigan’s costliest hazard: $0.57 a year per $1,000
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
The typical town loses $0.030 a year to shaking; Shawnigan loses $0.57, 19.1 times as much.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Earthquake risk in British Columbia peaks in Duncan ($1.33); Shawnigan, at $0.57, sits above the median of $0.36.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Shawnigan is in the top tenth of Canada’s 2,611 towns for earthquake risk; 0.9% rank higher.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The model counts damage to Shawnigan’s buildings and their occupants from shaking only: not liquefaction, landslides, tsunami or fires after a quake.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon runs low around Shawnigan: 0.9% of tested homes over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
A lower share than most: 0.9% of tested homes around Shawnigan, the typical Canadian town 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
The median in British Columbia is 1.8% over 200 Bq/m³; around Shawnigan it is 0.9%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Shawnigan is in the lowest band, with 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns: under 5% of tests over the guideline, while 63% have more.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
The survey sampled homes around Shawnigan; it can’t tell you your basement’s level.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Area behind the radon tests figures: the Central Vancouver Island health region
Weather and fire alerts for Shawnigan
Alerts for Shawnigan come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Evacuation orders for Shawnigan come from the municipality or the province, while CWFIS maps fire danger every day.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Shawnigan
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawnigan | Low | $0.57 | 0.9% | Yes |
| Electoral Area A, Cowichan Valley 5,156 · 6.6 km | Low | $0.75 | 0.9% | Yes |
| Cobble Hill 5,074 · 7.0 km | Low | $0.68 | 0.9% | None listed |
| Cowichan Bay 3,713 · 9.6 km | Low | $1.08 | 0.9% | Yes |
| Cowichan 2,509 · 13 km | Low | $0.72 | 0.9% | Yes |
| Electoral Area E, Cowichan Valley 4,482 · 13 km | Low | $0.83 | 0.9% | Yes |
| Duncan 5,745 · 15 km | Low | $1.33 | 0.9% | Yes |
Nowhere around Shawnigan burns more: Electoral Area A, Cowichan Valley, the closest rival, is low to its low.
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Shawnigan faces
What to do about the hazards Shawnigan faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap the water heater down.
- Keep 72 hours of supplies.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
- Is earthquake cover included?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; Shawnigan’s figure is its subdivision’s.
- Radon is a survey. Radon figures pool the survey’s home tests by area: postal areas once their boundaries arrive, the 2007 health region around Shawnigan until then.
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around Shawnigan’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. Flood studies cover areas of every size, which is why the page lists them for Shawnigan without grading them.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Shawnigan
Does Shawnigan flood?
A flood study covers Shawnigan on Canada’s Flood Map Inventory; open the owner’s map to check a street, since flood isn’t graded.
How is Shawnigan’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Shawnigan’s Hazard risk grade is B−, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Is Shawnigan at risk of wildfire?
Fire has reached 0.3% of the land around Shawnigan since 1986 (last in 2024); at low, it neither helps nor hurts the grade.
Is radon a problem in Shawnigan?
Around Shawnigan, 109 survey homes were tested and 0.9% came in over 200 Bq/m³, a guide to the area, not to any one home.
How big is the earthquake risk in Shawnigan?
About $0.57 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Shawnigan.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).