Earthquakes are Montecito’s biggest hazard: $0.36 of damage a year per $1,000 of buildings, 12 times the norm
Wildfire is rare near Montecito: 0.2% of the land within 25 km has burned since 1986, a burn rate of 0.004% a year. In Health Canada’s survey, just 0% of homes tested in the area exceeded 200 Bq/m³ (6.6% typical). Hazard risk gives Montecito a grade of B; its wildfire band pulls it down.
What stands out about Montecito’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Montecito: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Montecito faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Montecito grades B for hazard risk
Seismic risk and radon set Montecito’s grade, wildfire can drag it down, and flood mapping stays out of it.
Its place: #35 of 254 in British Columbia and #1,485 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Wildfire is rare near Montecito: 0.2% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0% within 5 km
Past fire around Montecito’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
The yearly burn rate around Montecito is 0.004%, low beside 0.000% for the typical Canadian town.
No fire has burned within 5 km of Montecito’s homes since 1986; the nearest burn is 14 km away.
Forest fuel covers 9.8% of the land close to Montecito and 40% across 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in British Columbia · highest of 255
In the lower half in British Columbia: Montecito at 0.004% a year, 144th of 255, far from Oliver’s 0.98%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Some fire is mapped around Montecito, but not enough to leave the low band, where 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns are; 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
No flood study is listed for Montecito
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Montecito: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
There is no study for Montecito on the national flood inventory, which is far from complete.
Towns with a flood study on file
Flood maps are common in British Columbia, 76% of towns against 58% nationally, but none in the inventory touches Montecito.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood studies don’t enter the grade; they are listed so you can open the official map for Montecito.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Earthquakes cost buildings in Montecito $0.36 per $1,000 a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
Roughly 12 times the typical $0.030: Montecito’s $0.36 marks real seismic exposure.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
About level with the typical town in British Columbia: Montecito’s $0.36 against $0.36; Duncan reaches $1.33.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Only 4.9% of Canada’s 2,611 towns expect more shaking damage than Montecito.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The loss is to Montecito’s buildings alone, from ground shaking; infrastructure and secondary hazards are left out.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean). · Not measured by town: earthquake risk (the city of Burnaby)
0% of homes tested around Montecito are over the radon guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
Radon runs below the typical Canadian town (6.6%) in Montecito’s area, at 0%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Against the typical town in British Columbia (1.8%), the area around Montecito has fewer high tests: 0%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
63% of Canada’s 2,611 towns have a higher share of homes over 200 Bq/m³ than Montecito’s band, which holds 37%.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
A survey sample isn’t a map: any home in Montecito can be high, and a three-month test is the only way to know.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Radon tests: the Fraser North health region
Weather and fire alerts for Montecito
Alerts for Montecito come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Evacuation orders for Montecito come from the municipality or the province, while CWFIS maps fire danger every day.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Montecito
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montecito | Low | $0.36 | 0% | None listed |
| Lochdale 7,463 · 1.0 km | Low | $0.36 | 0% | None listed |
| Bainbridge 3,015 · 1.2 km | Low | $0.36 | 0% | None listed |
| Holdom 7,976 · 1.9 km | Low | $0.36 | 0% | None listed |
| Lake City 3,240 · 2.2 km | Low | $0.36 | 0% | None listed |
| Deer Lake 8,417 · 3.2 km | Low | $0.36 | 0% | None listed |
| Brentwood 22,170 · 3.2 km | Low | $0.36 | 0% | None listed |
Nowhere around Montecito burns more: Lochdale, the closest rival, is low to its low.
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Montecito faces
Practical steps for Montecito’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap the water heater down.
- Keep 72 hours of supplies.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
- Is earthquake cover included?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of Montecito’s homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. NRCan’s inventory says where flood mapping exists, not where water goes; the map’s owner is the authority for Montecito.
- Radon is a survey. About 14,000 homes were tested across Canada in 2009–2011, and the share over the guideline for Montecito is its health region’s, the survey’s design unit.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as Montecito’s.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Montecito
How big is the earthquake risk in Montecito?
NRCan’s model expects shaking to cost buildings in Montecito $0.36 a year for every $1,000 of their value, on average over many years.
How is Montecito’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Montecito B, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
Is Montecito at risk of wildfire?
Some, but Montecito’s low band (0.2% of nearby land burned since 1986, latest 2022) is short of the level that counts.
Does Montecito flood?
The inventory has 0 studies for Montecito, and an empty list isn’t a clean bill: the municipality holds any flood maps.
Is radon a problem in Montecito?
The area’s survey found 0% of 108 tested homes above Health Canada’s guideline, so a three-month test is worth doing in Montecito.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).