Photo: Themightyquill · CC BY-SA 2.5Ashcroft faces more hazards than almost every Canadian town
At 1.01% of the land burned each year (39% within 25 km since 1986), Ashcroft is in the very high wildfire band. Earthquake risk in Ashcroft is ordinary: NRCan’s model puts building losses at $0.029 a year per $1,000 of value, close to the typical town’s $0.030. In Health Canada’s survey, 6.4% of homes tested in Ashcroft’s area exceeded 200 Bq/m³, close to the typical 6.6%. Ashcroft grades D− for hazard risk, with wildfire counted against it.
What stands out about Ashcroft’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Ashcroft: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Ashcroft faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Ashcroft: D−
The grade weighs Ashcroft’s seismic risk and radon equally, and wildfire is one-sided: a high band counts against a town, a low one earns nothing.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Fire country: 39% of the land within 25 km of Ashcroft has burned since 1986, 32% within 5 km
Past fire around Ashcroft’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
At 1.01% of the land a year, Ashcroft’s burn rate is very high, far beyond the typical Canadian town’s 0.000%.
Homes in Ashcroft sit on open or built-up ground (0.2% forest fuel within 5 km); the wider 25 km holds 37%.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in British Columbia · highest of 256
Of the 256 towns in British Columbia, the land around Ashcroft burns fastest, 1.01% a year against 0.98% for Oliver.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Very high is the rarest band, 0.2% of Canada’s 2,610 towns, and Ashcroft is in it.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Ashcroft is on the flood map inventory: 1 study, by Fraser Basin Council
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Ashcroft: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
Fraser Basin Council studied flooding in an area that includes Ashcroft (2020); open its map to see which streets lie in a flood zone.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thompson River Watershed Base Level Flood Hazard Mapping | Fraser Basin Council | 2020 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Ashcroft is one of the 76% of towns in British Columbia with a flood study on file; across Canada it is 58%.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood mapping is shown for Ashcroft to be opened and checked, never turned into a grade.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Expected shaking damage in Ashcroft: $0.029 a year per $1,000
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
With $0.029 of shaking damage a year per $1,000, Ashcroft sits right at the typical $0.030.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Below the middle in British Columbia: Ashcroft’s $0.029 against a median of $0.36; Duncan has $1.33.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Neither high nor low for Canada: 51% of the 2,611 towns expect more damage than Ashcroft.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The loss is to Ashcroft’s buildings alone, from ground shaking; infrastructure and secondary hazards are left out.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Some radon around Ashcroft: 6.4% of area homes over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline. · Shared with the rest of the Thompson/Cariboo health region: radon tests
Around Ashcroft, 6.4% of tested homes topped the guideline, near the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Ashcroft’s area, at 6.4%, is above the median in British Columbia (1.8%).
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
26% of Canada’s 2,611 towns have more homes over 200 Bq/m³ than Ashcroft’s 5–10% band, which holds 37%.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
One home in Ashcroft can be high while next door is low; a three-month test settles it.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Ashcroft
Alerts for Ashcroft come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Evacuation orders for Ashcroft come from the municipality or the province, while CWFIS maps fire danger every day.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Ashcroft
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashcroft | Very high | $0.029 | 6.4% | Yes |
| Cache Creek 1,053 · 9.2 km | Very high | $0.018 | 6.4% | Yes |
| Electoral Area I (Blue Sky Country), Thompson-Nicola 1,189 · 16 km | High | $0.029 | 6.4% | Yes |
Cache Creek burns a little more than Ashcroft, in the same very high band (very high here).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Ashcroft faces
What to do about the hazards Ashcroft faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- How close is the forest edge?
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of Ashcroft’s homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as Ashcroft’s.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. A study’s area can be a whole watershed or province, so being on the inventory says a map exists, not that a home in Ashcroft floods.
- Radon is a survey. The radon share comes from about 14,000 long-term home tests in 2009–2011, pooled for now by the 2007 health region Ashcroft sits in.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Ashcroft
Does Ashcroft flood?
Ashcroft’s area has been studied for flooding, and the owner’s map shows which streets lie in a zone; the grade leaves flood out.
How is Ashcroft’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Ashcroft’s Hazard risk grade is D−, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
How big is the earthquake risk in Ashcroft?
NRCan’s model expects shaking to cost buildings in Ashcroft $0.029 a year for every $1,000 of their value, on average over many years.
Is radon a problem in Ashcroft?
Around Ashcroft, 109 survey homes were tested and 6.4% came in over 200 Bq/m³, a guide to the area, not to any one home.
Is Ashcroft at risk of wildfire?
More than most Canadian towns; Ashcroft’s very high band rests on 39% of nearby land burned since 1986 (most recently 2025).
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).