Hazard risk in Northern Lights County is higher than in 95% of Canadian towns
Fire is a regular visitor: 10% of the land within 25 km of Northern Lights County has burned since 1986 (0.26% a year). Shaking is less of a worry than in most places, at $0.008 a year per $1,000 of building value ($0.030 typical). Radon around Northern Lights County is ordinary for Canada: 8.9% of tested homes over the guideline (6.6% typical). Hazard risk gives Northern Lights County a grade of D; its wildfire band pulls it down.
What stands out about Northern Lights County’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Northern Lights County: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Northern Lights County faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Northern Lights County: D
Earthquake risk and radon make Northern Lights County’s grade; wildfire can only lower it, never raise it, and flood studies are listed but not scored.
Its place: #465 of 474 in Alberta and #2,536 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
2.3% of the land near Northern Lights County’s homes has burned since 1986, 10% within 25 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Northern Lights County’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
At 0.26% of the land a year, Northern Lights County’s burn rate is high, many times the typical Canadian town’s 0.000%.
There is forest near Northern Lights County’s homes (20% within 5 km) and more of it further out (31% within 25 km).
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Alberta · highest of 478
At 0.26% a year, Northern Lights County is near the top in Alberta: 10th of 478, behind Wainwright (1.43%).
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Northern Lights County is one of the few of Canada’s 2,610 towns in the high band (1.9%); 0.2% rank very high.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Northern Lights County is on the flood map inventory: 2 studies, latest by Government of Alberta
Flood studies whose area touches Northern Lights County, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
Government of Alberta and others have studied flooding in areas that include Northern Lights County: 2 studies, the latest from 2024.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peace River Flood Study | Government of Alberta | 2024 | final |
| Manning Flood Hazard Study | Government of Alberta | 2000 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Only 46% of towns in Alberta have a flood study, short of Canada’s 58%; Northern Lights County is one of them.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
No single decade dominates: 2 studies for Northern Lights County between the 2000s and the 2020s.
Study dates as the NRCan inventory lists them, one count per study touching Northern Lights County.
Nothing here counts toward Risk; the studies are pointers to the maps their owners keep for Northern Lights County.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Little shaking expected in Northern Lights County: $0.008 a year per $1,000
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
At $0.008 per $1,000, Northern Lights County carries 0.3 times the typical Canadian town’s earthquake risk ($0.030): low.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
At $0.008, Northern Lights County is below the typical town in Alberta ($0.013); Black Diamond is highest at $0.048.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Toward the quiet end of Canada’s range: 87% of its 2,611 towns sit above Northern Lights County.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Roads, pipes and bridges aren’t in Northern Lights County’s figure, nor landslides or tsunami: it is buildings and shaking.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Some radon around Northern Lights County: 8.9% of area homes over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline. · Measured across the Peace Country Health: radon tests
The survey area of Northern Lights County reads 8.9%, a shade from the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Around Northern Lights County, 8.9% of tests topped the guideline, close to the typical town in Alberta (7.5%); 1% were over 600.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns share Northern Lights County’s band of 5 to 10%; 26% sit higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
One home in Northern Lights County can be high while next door is low; a three-month test settles it.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Northern Lights County
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Northern Lights County; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Smoke and fire warnings for Northern Lights County come through Environment Canada and Alert Ready; the fire map is CWFIS’s.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Northern Lights County
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Lights County | High | $0.008 | 8.9% | Yes |
| Manning 1,153 · 17 km | Moderate | $0.007 | 8.9% | Yes |
The neighbour with the most fire is Manning (moderate), still no more than Northern Lights County (high).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Northern Lights County faces
Practical steps for Northern Lights County’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- How close is the forest edge?
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as Northern Lights County’s.
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, Northern Lights County takes its 2007 health region’s share.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in Northern Lights County.
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of Northern Lights County’s homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Northern Lights County
How big is the earthquake risk in Northern Lights County?
About $0.008 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Northern Lights County.
How is Northern Lights County’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Northern Lights County’s Hazard risk grade is D, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Is Northern Lights County at risk of wildfire?
It is: 10% of the land within 25 km of Northern Lights County has burned since 1986, the latest in 2025, which puts it in the high band that lowers Risk.
Does Northern Lights County flood?
The inventory lists a study touching Northern Lights County; whether a given street floods is on that map, not in the grade.
Is radon a problem in Northern Lights County?
8.9% of the 203 homes Health Canada tested around Northern Lights County topped the guideline; your own house needs its own test.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).