Photo: Fil.Al · CC BY 2.0Hazard risk in Jasper is higher than in 98% of Canadian towns
Fire is a regular visitor: 20% of the land within 25 km of Jasper has burned since 1986 (0.50% a year). NRCan expects $0.034 of shaking damage a year per $1,000 of buildings in Jasper, near the typical $0.030. About as many homes carry radon around Jasper as elsewhere, 9.6% over the guideline where the typical town has 6.6%. Hazard risk gives Jasper a grade of D−; its wildfire band pulls it down.
What stands out about Jasper’s hazards
For Jasper, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Jasper faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Jasper grades D− for hazard risk
Seismic risk and radon set Jasper’s grade, wildfire can drag it down, and flood mapping stays out of it.
Its place: #469 of 474 in Alberta and #2,570 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
A high wildfire band for Jasper: 37% within 5 km, 20% within 25 km
Past fire around Jasper’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
High: the land around Jasper burns at 0.50% a year, where the typical Canadian town sees 0.000%.
The ring nearest Jasper is the most wooded: 51% forest fuel within 5 km against 46% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Alberta · highest of 478
At 0.50% a year, Jasper is near the top in Alberta: 6th of 478, behind Wainwright (1.43%).
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Jasper is one of the few of Canada’s 2,610 towns in the high band (1.9%); 0.2% rank very high.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
No flood study is listed for Jasper
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Jasper: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
An empty entry for Jasper on the inventory isn’t proof of safety; ask locally for flood maps.
Towns with a flood study on file
Mapping in Alberta reaches 46% of towns, below the 58% across Canada, and not Jasper.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Listed, not scored: a flood study proves a map exists, not that Jasper floods.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Expected shaking damage in Jasper: $0.034 a year per $1,000
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
Jasper’s $0.034 is close to the typical town’s $0.030 (1.1 times as much).
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
At $0.034, Jasper is above the typical town in Alberta ($0.013); Black Diamond has the most at $0.048.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Around half of Canada’s 2,611 towns expect more shaking damage than Jasper (46%).
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
What a quake does after the shaking, fire, landslides, tsunami, falls outside NRCan’s figure for Jasper.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon about average around Jasper: 9.6% over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline. · Shared with the rest of the Aspen Regional Health Authority: radon tests
9.6% of tested homes around Jasper were over the guideline, much like the typical Canadian town at 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Around Jasper, 9.6% of tests were over 200 Bq/m³ and 0.5% over 600, against a median of 7.5% in Alberta.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns share Jasper’s band of 5 to 10%; 26% sit higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Whatever Jasper’s area share, the reading that matters is your own home’s, over a winter.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Where to get warnings in Jasper
Alerts for Jasper come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Evacuation orders for Jasper come from the municipality or the province, while CWFIS maps fire danger every day.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Get ready for what Jasper faces
Practical steps for Jasper’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- How close is the forest edge?
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in Jasper.
- Earthquakes are modelled. The earthquake figure is an expected loss, not a forecast, worked out by NRCan for each census subdivision, Jasper’s included.
- Wildfire counts one way. Burned land within 25 km of where people live, averaged over 1986–2025 and checked for fuel near homes, is the measure; it looks back, not ahead, and only ever counts against Jasper.
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, Jasper takes its 2007 health region’s share.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Jasper
How big is the earthquake risk in Jasper?
In NRCan’s seismic model, Jasper’s buildings lose $0.034 per $1,000 of value in an average year.
How is Jasper’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Jasper’s Hazard risk grade is D−, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Is radon a problem in Jasper?
9.6% of the 219 homes Health Canada tested around Jasper topped the guideline; your own house needs its own test.
Is Jasper at risk of wildfire?
It is: 20% of the land within 25 km of Jasper has burned since 1986, the latest in 2024, which puts it in the high band that lowers Risk.
Does Jasper flood?
No study on Canada’s Flood Map Inventory covers Jasper (0), which doesn’t mean it has never been mapped, so ask the municipality.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).