Hazard risk in Carlton is lower than in 98% of Canadian towns
For Carlton, wildfire history is close to nil: 0% of nearby land since 1986, 0.000% a year. Earthquakes matter little: NRCan’s model puts building losses at $0.013 a year per $1,000 of value, against $0.030 for the typical town. Fewer homes than usual carry radon here, 1.4% over the guideline where the typical town has 6.6%. Carlton grades A+ for hazard risk, with wildfire counted against it.
What stands out about Carlton’s hazards
For Carlton, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Carlton faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Carlton grades A+ for hazard risk
For Carlton, Risk will be the average of earthquakes and radon, with wildfire added only if it makes the average worse.
Its place: #11 of 474 in Alberta and #22 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. The radon share rests on 73 home tests in the survey area, so a few homes move it. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Wildfire is rare near Carlton: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0% within 5 km
Past fire around Carlton’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
Next to the typical Canadian town (0.000% a year), Carlton’s 0.000% is in the low band.
Forest fuel is scarce around Carlton: 0% of the land within 5 km, 0.3% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Alberta · highest of 478
Of the 478 towns in Alberta, 386 have a burn rate that rounds to zero, Carlton among them; Wainwright leads at 1.43% a year.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Most of the country’s 2,610 towns are low-band (92%, against 7.5% above); around Carlton, burning rounds to zero.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
No flood study is listed for Carlton
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Carlton: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists no study whose area touches Carlton, which doesn’t mean it has never been mapped.
Towns with a flood study on file
Flood maps are thinner in Alberta, 46% of towns against 58% nationally, and Carlton has none.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
The grade leaves flood out, since a study area says nothing about how many of Carlton’s homes are at risk.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Low seismic risk in Carlton: $0.013 per $1,000 of buildings a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
Shaking costs the typical town $0.030 a year; in Carlton it is only $0.013, 0.4 times as much.
Figures for earthquake risk are published for the city of Edmonton as a whole, not for Carlton alone.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Shaking damage around Carlton runs at $0.013 a year, near the $0.013 of the typical town in Alberta; Black Diamond has $0.048.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Most of Canada’s 2,611 towns (75%) face more earthquake damage than Carlton.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
For Carlton the model prices shaking damage to buildings, nothing more.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon runs low around Carlton: 1.4% of tested homes over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
Carlton’s survey area reads 1.4% over the guideline, under the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%. For radon tests, the only official count covers all of the Capital Health, Carlton included.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Fewer homes top the guideline around Carlton (1.4%) than in the typical town in Alberta (7.5%).
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Few tests over the guideline: Carlton shares the bottom band with 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns, below the other 63%.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
A low area share in Carlton doesn’t clear a house, nor does a high one condemn it: test.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Where to get warnings in Carlton
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Carlton; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Smoke and fire warnings for Carlton come through Environment Canada and Alert Ready; the fire map is CWFIS’s.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Carlton’s neighbours compare on hazards
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlton | Low | $0.013 | 1.4% | None listed |
| Oxford 4,460 · 0.8 km | Low | $0.013 | 1.4% | None listed |
| Cumberland 6,493 · 1.1 km | Low | $0.013 | 1.4% | None listed |
| Albany 3,015 · 1.4 km | Low | $0.013 | 1.4% | None listed |
| Hudson 3,634 · 1.8 km | Low | $0.013 | 1.4% | None listed |
| Dunluce 6,079 · 2.1 km | Low | $0.013 | 1.4% | None listed |
| Caernarvon 5,972 · 2.1 km | Low | $0.013 | 1.4% | None listed |
The neighbour with the most fire is Oxford (low), still no more than Carlton (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Carlton faces
Practical steps for Carlton’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Wildfire counts one way. For Carlton, wildfire means how much nearby land burned in the past forty years, a one-way input that can pull Risk down and nothing more.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Seismic risk is NRCan’s model of yearly building losses from shaking, averaged over many years and given for Carlton’s census subdivision (a neighbourhood shows its city’s).
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in Carlton.
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, Carlton takes its 2007 health region’s share.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Carlton
How is Carlton’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Carlton’s Hazard risk grade is A+, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Is radon a problem in Carlton?
The area’s survey found 1.4% of 73 tested homes above Health Canada’s guideline, so a three-month test is worth doing in Carlton.
Does Carlton flood?
The inventory has 0 studies for Carlton, and an empty list isn’t a clean bill: the municipality holds any flood maps.
How big is the earthquake risk in Carlton?
NRCan’s model expects shaking to cost buildings in Carlton $0.013 a year for every $1,000 of their value, on average over many years.
Is Carlton at risk of wildfire?
No meaningful wildfire history near Carlton: 0% of nearby land since 1986, band low.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).