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Downtown Tracy (cropped)Photo: Michael Patrick · Public domain
C−Hazard risk
Natural hazards in Tracy · FEMA

On FEMA’s figures, Tracy faces more hazard damage per building than 82% of U.S. towns, mostly from earthquakes

On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Tracy gets a C− for hazard risk: higher expected damage per building than 82% of U.S. towns, #188 of 847 in California. Most of that expected damage is earthquakes (52%), then river and rain flooding (47%). Flood insurance has paid 7 claims here since 1983.

Earthquakes 52%River and rain flooding 47%Wildfire 1%

Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded

more than 82%of U.S. townsLess damageMoreExpected yearly damage per dollar of building, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade#188 of 847 in California
Hazard risk
C−#188 of 847
in California · higher than 82% of U.S. towns
Main hazard
Earthquakes
52% of expected building damage
Flood claims
7
paid since 1983 · $19K
Disasters paid out here
2
of 22 declared for San Joaquin County
By hazard

What Tracy faces

Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.

Earthquakes

52%of expected building damage
Well above average · in the top 10% of U.S. census tracts

River and rain flooding

47%of expected building damage
Above average · higher than 66% of U.S. census tracts
Recorded about once a year in the area
Smaller shares here
 Wildfire Tornadoes Hail Strong wind Winter storms Heat waves Landslides Lightning Volcanic activity top 4%
FEMA models no building damage here
Coastal floodingHurricanesIce stormsCold wavesAvalanchesTsunamis

Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.

Flood risk changes street by street. Check a specific address on FEMA’s flood map, and ask about flood insurance before you buy.
Hazard risk grade

What’s behind Tracy’s grade

Earthquakes are 52% of the building damage FEMA expects in Tracy, and Tracy’s rate of earthquakes damage is in the top 10% of U.S. census tracts. Next is river and rain flooding at 47% (higher than 66% of U.S. census tracts).

Where Tracy sits
Tracy
Least damageMiddleMost damage

C− #188 of 847 in California; higher expected damage per building than 82% of U.S. towns (21,298).

Tracy’s residents live in 24 census tracts; FEMA’s figures are combined by where they live.

What drives the damage to buildings
Earthquakes52%River and rain flooding47%Everything else1%

The typical California town has higher expected damage than 92% of U.S. towns; within the state, Tracy has less expected damage per building than 78% of California towns.

Among the 400 U.S. cities of 100,000 or more, Tracy has higher expected damage per building than 75% (#300 of 400). Because it is so big, its total expected yearly loss, $47.2M, is the 260th largest of those 400.

A firm figure. It combines 24 census tracts by where Tracy’s residents live. FEMA’s model is an average year for today’s buildings, not a record: the claims and disasters below are the record.

How TownRatings grades hazard risk →

Flood insurance claims

Does Tracy flood? Rarely: 7 flood claims since 1983

Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in Tracy, from FEMA’s records: 0.2 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 96% of the 13,809 U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.

Paid flood claims, by year
1983: 3 claims1984: 0 claims1985: 0 claims1986: 1 claim1987: 0 claims1988: 0 claims1989: 0 claims1990: 0 claims1991: 0 claims1992: 0 claims1993: 0 claims1994: 0 claims1995: 0 claims1996: 0 claims1997: 0 claims1998: 3 claims1999: 0 claims2000: 0 claims2001: 0 claims2002: 0 claims2003: 0 claims2004: 0 claims2005: 0 claims2006: 0 claims2007: 0 claims2008: 0 claims2009: 0 claims2010: 0 claims2011: 0 claims2012: 0 claims2013: 0 claims2014: 0 claims2015: 0 claims2016: 0 claims2017: 0 claims2018: 0 claims2019: 0 claims2020: 0 claims2021: 0 claims2022: 0 claims2023: 0 claims2024: 0 claims2025: 0 claims2026: 0 claims198319861998
19832026
Biggest named events
  • The Pineapple Express - Southern3 claims · $7K
7
paid claims since 1983
$19K
paid to owners
0
homes flooded more than once
$3K
average claim
of homes in flood zones are insured
of all homes are insured
No community discount

Tracy isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.

Insurance rates: San Joaquin County.
What’s been done with FEMA grants
1flood-prone property bought out and cleared
1home raised above flood level
Disasters

2 federal disasters brought FEMA money to Tracy

Disasters that paid out in Tracy itself (aid to households or repair grants to the City of Tracy), newest first, with that year’s flood claims.

  1. 2022Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides162 households applied for aid$198K aid approved$331K to the City of Tracy for repairs
  2. 2017Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides$75K to the City of Tracy for repairs
Disasters declared, by decade
Paid out in TracySan Joaquin County only

San Joaquin County has had 22 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often floods, then severe storms. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.

Were you here?

Old photos of Tracy after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.

Add to the Tracy archive →
Be ready

Get ready for what Tracy faces

A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.

Earthquakes
  • Drop, cover and hold on.
  • Strap tall furniture and the water heater to the wall.
  • Know how to shut off the gas.
More from Ready.gov ↗
When the river rises
  • Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
  • Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
  • Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
More from Ready.gov ↗
Before you buy or rent
  • Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
  • Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
  • Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
When a storm is coming
Forecast and alertsWeather →911, the nearest ERSafety →

Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.

Questions about natural hazards in Tracy

Is Tracy at risk for natural disasters?

On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Tracy has higher expected damage per building than 82% of U.S. towns: C− for hazard risk, #188 of 847 in California. Most of the expected damage is earthquakes (52%) and river and rain flooding (47%). This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.

Does Tracy flood?

Flood insurance has paid 7 claims in Tracy since 1983, $19K in all, or 0.2 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 96% of U.S. towns with a flood insurance record. The most claims came from Pineapple Express - Southern (3).

Is Tracy in a flood zone?

Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In San Joaquin County, 25% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 1.8% of all homes do.

How much is flood insurance in Tracy?

FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Tracy’s flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.

What was the biggest storm in Tracy?

By FEMA money that reached Tracy, Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides (2022): 162 households applied for aid, $198K approved, and $331K to the City of Tracy for repairs. By flood claims, Pineapple Express - Southern: 3 paid, $7K.

Is Tracy at risk from earthquakes?

It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (52%), and Tracy’s rate for it is in the top 10% of U.S. census tracts.

Storm stories

Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Tracy.

Town Square →
Start the conversation

Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Tracy’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.