FEMA expects more hazard damage per building in Phelan than almost anywhere in the U.S., led by earthquakes
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Phelan gets a D− for hazard risk: among the highest expected damage per building of U.S. towns, #762 of 847 in California. Most of that expected damage is earthquakes (40%), then river and rain flooding (37%). Flood insurance has paid 2 claims here since 1999.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What Phelan faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
Earthquakes
River and rain flooding
Wildfire
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind Phelan’s grade
Earthquakes are 40% of the building damage FEMA expects in Phelan, and Phelan’s rate of earthquakes damage is in the top 3% of U.S. census tracts. River and rain flooding adds 37%, at a rate in the top 7% of U.S. census tracts.
D− #762 of 847 in California; among the highest expected damage per building of U.S. towns (21,298).
Phelan’s residents live in 4 census tracts; FEMA’s figures are combined by where they live.
The typical California town has higher expected damage than 92% of U.S. towns; within the state, Phelan has more expected damage per building than 90% of California towns.
In dollars, FEMA expects about $13.0M a year in losses across Phelan: $10.0M to buildings, the rest to people and crops.
Does Phelan flood? Rarely: 2 flood claims since 1999
Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in Phelan, from FEMA’s records: 0.4 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 93% of the 13,809 U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
- Tropical Storm Hilary1 claim · $73K
Phelan isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.
Insurance rates: San Bernardino County.3 federal disasters brought FEMA money to Phelan
Disasters that paid out in Phelan itself (aid to households or repair grants to Phelan), newest first, with that year’s flood claims.
- 2023Severe Winter Storms, Straight-line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides23 households applied for aid$60K aid approved1 flood claim paid that year
- 2020Wildfires6 households applied for aid$2K aid approved
- 2004Severe Storms, Flooding, Debris Flows, and Mudslides8 households applied for aid$5K aid approved
San Bernardino County has had 34 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often severe storms, then floods. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Also 24 FEMA wildfire suppression grants (Fire Management Assistance, not a disaster declaration) for fires in San Bernardino County, 2002–2024.
Old photos of Phelan after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.
Add to the Phelan archive →Phelan and its neighbors
Phelan is 2nd of the 3 graded towns here, from least expected damage per building to most. Tap a town to see its hazards.
| Town | Hazard risk | Mostly (buildings) | Flood claims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oak Hills | Dmore damage than 94% | earthquakes | — |
| Phelan | D−among the highest damage | earthquakes | 2 |
| Piñon Hills | D−among the highest damage | earthquakes | 2 |
Hazard risk = FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade; the map is shaded by fifths of the same scale. Flood claims = paid federal flood insurance claims on record.
Get ready for what Phelan faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap tall furniture and the water heater to the wall.
- Know how to shut off the gas.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- Clear dead leaves and brush within 5 feet of the house.
- Sign up for local alerts and know two ways out.
- Keep N95 masks for smoky days.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in Phelan
Is Phelan at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Phelan has among the highest expected damage per building of U.S. towns: D− for hazard risk, #762 of 847 in California. Most of the expected damage is earthquakes (40%) and river and rain flooding (37%). This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Does Phelan flood?
Flood insurance has paid 2 claims in Phelan since 1999, $78K in all, or 0.4 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 93% of U.S. towns with a flood insurance record. The most claims came from Tropical Storm Hilary (1).
Is Phelan in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In San Bernardino County, 15% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 0.3% of all homes do.
How much is flood insurance in Phelan?
FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Phelan’s flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
What was the biggest storm in Phelan?
By FEMA money that reached Phelan, Severe Winter Storms, Straight-line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides (2023): 23 households applied for aid, $60K approved. By flood claims, Tropical Storm Hilary: 1 paid, $73K.
Is Phelan at risk from earthquakes?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (40%), and Phelan’s rate for it is in the top 3% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Phelan.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Phelan’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.