Likely, 2004
Likely’s story
140 years in pictures
The archive holds 3 old photos and papers going back to 2004 and 2 maps from 1983 on.
- 1886Likely is settled
LikelyCA
A town in California.
Jess Valley Schoolhouse · Photo: Ian Poellet · CC BY-SA 3.0
Land area
1 sq mi
Is Likely a good place to live?
Likely’s January low is 21°F, below both California’s towns (40°F) and U.S. towns (22°F). Likely’s density of trails is 2.2 miles per square mile, above both California’s towns (1.0) and U.S. towns (0.4). We don’t grade Likely yet; the figures below are still real.
Getting set up
Moving to Likely: who provides what
Likely is unincorporated, so Modoc County and regional agencies provide most services.
PowerSurprise Valley Electrification13.5¢/kWh · EIA 2025HIFLD · EIA
WaterPit River Xl Rancheria water systemNo health-based violations in 5 years · EPAEPA
InternetProviders and speedsData pending · D4
Trash & county servicesModoc CountyModoc County provides services here
Register to voteOnlineIn California you can register online until 15 days before Election Day, in person up to and including Election Day, or by mail (postmarked 15 days before).vote.govWho runs elections hereModoc County Clerk-ElectionsModoc County; contacts on the Handbook page.FVAP, Jul 2025
ZIP code9611696116 100%Census 2020
EPA SDWIS (Oct 9, 2026) · HIFLD + EIA-861 2025 · Census 2020 ZCTAs · NCES 2024–25 · registration: vote.gov, updated Nov 18, 2024.
The data
Ordered by what stands out in Likely.
Natural hazards
Very high risk in Likely, with inland flooding at the top
Expected losses in Likely break down as 42% from inland flooding and 33% from wildfires. FEMA expects more storm and flood damage locally than in 81% of U.S. communities.
81risk score of 100
FEMA risk score
Inland floodingWildfireDrought
FEMA National Risk Index · OpenFEMA
45″snow a winter
Typical low → high °F
Winter21–44°
Spring31–60°
Summer46–85°
Fall32–66°
Sep 12
typical first frost
Jun 3
typical last frost
+1.3°
vs. the 20th-century average
NOAA U.S. Climate Normals, 1991–2020
Health
More of Likely’s adults have diabetes than in the typical California or U.S. town
For adults in Likely, the share who sleep under 7 hours is 33%. Only 4 of the 848 California towns we compare have a higher share of adults who have high blood pressure than Likely. Just over a fifth of adults in Likely report frequent physical distress; 11% binge drink. Against the California average, Likely comes out ahead on 7 CDC measures out of 32, and behind on 13.
| Likely | Typical California town | Typical U.S. town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diabetes (CDC PLACES) | 20% | 12% | 12% |
| Frequent physical distress (CDC PLACES) | 22% | 14% | 14% |
| Binge drink (CDC PLACES) | 11% | 16% | 16% |
| High blood pressure (CDC PLACES) | 50% | 31% | 35% |
32 measures vs. California
7 better12 too close to call13 worse
| What stands out | Likely | CA |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer uninsured adults | 6.6% | 10.6% |
| Fewer binge drinkers | 10.7% | 15.3% |
| More adults with COPD | 14.2% | 5.1% |
Modoc Medical Center
18.5 mi away · emergency room
2 of 3
care shortages: primary care, mental health
CDC PLACES 2025 · modeled estimates for adults · CMS · HRSA
0%conserved
0%
conserved · 0 of 848 acres
2.9 mi
of trails · 2.2 per sq mi
Trails & parks © OpenStreetMap contributors · Conserved land: USGS PAD-US
Keep exploring
Everything we know about Likely
13pages on Likely
The big questions
After high school
Colleges nearby
None within 15 miles of Likely; the nearest are
About Likely
Census-designated place in California, United States
Likely (formerly, South Fork) is a census-designated place in Modoc County, California, United States. It is located near the south fork of the Pit River, 18 miles (29 km) south of the county seat of Alturas, at an elevation of 4,449 feet (1,356 m). Its population is 53 as of the 2020 census, down from 63 at the time of the 2010 census. Located 6 miles (9.7 km) north-northwest of Likely Mountain, it is somewhat sheltered from prevailing southwesterly winds, and its microclimate is noticeably drier and less stormy than surrounding areas. The ZIP Code for the community is 96116.
From Wikipedia, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0 · facts via Wikidata (CC0)
- Area
- 1.3 sq mi
- Elevation
- 4,449 ft
- ZIP code
- 96116
- Area code
- 530
Questions about Likely
Short answers, built from the data on this page.
Is Likely, CA a good place to live?
We don’t grade Likely yet; the figures below are still real. A town in California.