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Keyes California AerialPhoto: formulanone · CC BY-SA 2.0
B−Hazard risk
Natural hazards in Keyes · FEMA

On FEMA’s figures, Keyes faces about as much hazard damage per building as the typical U.S. town, mostly from river and rain flooding

On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Keyes gets a B− for hazard risk: higher expected damage per building than 55% of U.S. towns, #63 of 847 in California. Most of that expected damage is river and rain flooding (50%), then earthquakes (48%). FEMA’s files show no paid flood insurance claims here.

River and rain flooding 50%Earthquakes 48%Wildfire 2%

Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded

more than 55%of U.S. townsLess damageMoreExpected yearly damage per dollar of building, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade#63 of 847 in California
Hazard risk
B−#63 of 847
in California · higher than 55% of U.S. towns
Main hazard
River and rain flooding
50% of expected building damage
Flood claims
0
paid since 1978 · $0
Disasters paid out here
0
of 16 declared for Stanislaus County
By hazard

What Keyes faces

Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.

River and rain flooding

50%of expected building damage
Below average · lower than 64% of U.S. census tracts
Recorded about once every 2 years in the area

Earthquakes

48%of expected building damage
Well above average · higher than 87% of U.S. census tracts
Smaller shares here
 Wildfire Tornadoes Strong wind Hail Winter storms Heat waves Landslides Lightning Volcanic activity top 4%
FEMA models no building damage here
Coastal floodingHurricanesIce stormsCold wavesAvalanchesTsunamis
People, not buildings.Counting harm to people as well as buildings, FEMA’s model puts drought at 30% of Keyes’ expected losses. Drought does little damage to buildings (0.0%), so they aren’t part of the grade.

Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.

Flood risk changes street by street. Check a specific address on FEMA’s flood map, and ask about flood insurance before you buy.
Hazard risk grade

What’s behind Keyes’ grade

River and rain flooding is 50% of the building damage FEMA expects in Keyes, and Keyes’ rate of river and rain flooding damage is lower than 64% of U.S. census tracts. Next is earthquakes at 48% (higher than 87% of U.S. census tracts).

Where Keyes sits
Keyes
Least damageMiddleMost damage

B− #63 of 847 in California; higher expected damage per building than 55% of U.S. towns (21,298).

Keyes’ residents live in 2 census tracts; FEMA’s figures are combined by where they live.

What drives the damage to buildings
River and rain flooding50%Earthquakes48%Everything else2%

The typical California town has higher expected damage than 92% of U.S. towns; within the state, Keyes has less expected damage per building than 93% of California towns.

In dollars, FEMA expects about $2.6M a year in losses across Keyes: $1.5M to buildings, the rest to people and crops.

A small-area figure. Keyes covers 2 census tracts, combined by where residents live. FEMA’s model is an average year for today’s buildings, not a record: the claims and disasters below are the record.

How TownRatings grades hazard risk →

Flood insurance claims

Does Keyes flood? No paid flood claims on record

FEMA’s records show no paid flood insurance claims in Keyes. That’s not a promise: most homes don’t carry flood insurance, so small floods go unrecorded.

of homes in flood zones are insured
of all homes are insured
No community discount

Keyes isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.

Insurance rates: Stanislaus County.
Disasters

The storms Keyes remembers

None of the 16 disasters declared for Stanislaus County shows FEMA aid or repair money reaching Keyes itself in FEMA’s records, so these are its biggest flood-claim years.

Disasters declared, by decade
Paid out in KeyesStanislaus County only

Stanislaus County has had 16 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often severe storms, then floods. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.

Also 1 FEMA wildfire suppression grant (Fire Management Assistance, not a disaster declaration) for fires in Stanislaus County, 2020–2020.

Be ready

Get ready for what Keyes faces

A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.

When the river rises
  • Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
  • Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
  • Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
More from Ready.gov ↗
Earthquakes
  • Drop, cover and hold on.
  • Strap tall furniture and the water heater to the wall.
  • Know how to shut off the gas.
More from Ready.gov ↗
Before you buy or rent
  • Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
  • Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
  • Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
When a storm is coming
Forecast and alertsWeather →911, the nearest ERSafety →

Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.

Questions about natural hazards in Keyes

Is Keyes at risk for natural disasters?

On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Keyes has higher expected damage per building than 55% of U.S. towns: B− for hazard risk, #63 of 847 in California. Most of the expected damage is river and rain flooding (50%) and earthquakes (48%). This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.

Is Keyes in a flood zone?

Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Stanislaus County, 23% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 0.4% of all homes do.

How much is flood insurance in Keyes?

FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Keyes’ flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.

Is Keyes at risk from river and rain flooding?

It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (50%), and Keyes’ rate for it is lower than 64% of U.S. census tracts.

Storm stories

Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Keyes.

Town Square →
Start the conversation

Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Keyes’ residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.