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Warner's RanchWarner's Ranch · Photo: Historic American Buildings Survey - Jack E. Boucher · Public domain
D−Hazard risk
Natural hazards in Julian · FEMA

FEMA expects more hazard damage per building in Julian than almost anywhere in the U.S., mostly from wildfire

On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Julian gets a D− for hazard risk: among the highest expected damage per building of U.S. towns. Most of that expected damage is wildfire (80%), then river and rain flooding (12%). FEMA’s files show no paid flood insurance claims here.

Wildfire 80%River and rain flooding 12%Earthquakes 7%

Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded

among the highestof U.S. townsLess damageMoreExpected yearly damage per dollar of building, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade
Hazard risk
D−
in California · among the highest of U.S. towns
Main hazard
Wildfire
80% of expected building damage
Flood claims
0
paid since 1978 · $0
Disasters paid out here
3
of 30 declared for San Diego County
By hazard

What Julian faces

Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.

Wildfire

80%of expected building damage
Well above average · in the top 1% of U.S. census tracts

River and rain flooding

12%of expected building damage
Above average · higher than 62% of U.S. census tracts
Recorded about 8 times a year in the area

Earthquakes

7%of expected building damage
Well above average · higher than 86% of U.S. census tracts
Smaller shares here
 Landslides top 1% Hurricanes Tornadoes Hail Strong wind Winter storms Heat waves Lightning Avalanches top 1% Volcanic activity
FEMA models no building damage here
Coastal floodingIce stormsCold wavesTsunamis

Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.

Flood risk changes street by street. Check a specific address on FEMA’s flood map, and ask about flood insurance before you buy.
Hazard risk grade

What’s behind Julian’s grade

Wildfire is 80% of the building damage FEMA expects in Julian, and Julian’s rate of wildfire damage is in the top 1% of U.S. census tracts. Next is river and rain flooding at 12% (higher than 62% of U.S. census tracts).

Where Julian sits
Julian
Least damageMiddleMost damage

D− among the highest expected damage per building of U.S. towns (21,298).

All of Julian’s residents live in one census tract; the figures are that tract’s.

What drives the damage to buildings
Wildfire80%River and rain flooding12%Earthquakes7%

In dollars, FEMA expects about $4.1M a year in losses across Julian: $3.9M to buildings, the rest to people and crops.

Shared tract.All of Julian’s 1,768 residents (2020 census) live in one census tract. FEMA publishes its model by tract, so the rate and the hazard mix are the tract’s. The flood claims below are the town’s own.
A shared figure. The grade describes the whole tract, not each street in it, and FEMA’s model is an average year for today’s buildings, not a record: the claims below are the record.

How TownRatings grades hazard risk →

Flood insurance claims

Does Julian flood? No paid flood claims on record

FEMA’s records show no paid flood insurance claims in Julian. That’s not a promise: most homes don’t carry flood insurance, so small floods go unrecorded.

of homes in flood zones are insured
of all homes are insured
No community discount

Julian isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.

Insurance rates: San Diego County.
Disasters

3 federal disasters brought FEMA money to Julian

Disasters that paid out in Julian itself (aid to households or repair grants to Julian), newest first, with that year’s flood claims.

  1. 2007Wildfires, Flooding, Mud Flows, and Debris Flows177 households applied for aid$463 aid approved
  2. 2004Severe Storms, Flooding, Debris Flows, and Mudslides17 households applied for aid$17K aid approved
  3. 2003Wildfires, Flooding, Mudflow and Debris Flow Directly Related T991 households applied for aid$2.5M aid approved
Disasters declared, by decade
Paid out in JulianSan Diego County only

San Diego County has had 30 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often severe storms, then floods. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.

Also 18 FEMA wildfire suppression grants (Fire Management Assistance, not a disaster declaration) for fires in San Diego County, 2002–2018.

Were you here?

Old photos of Julian after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.

Add to the Julian archive →
Be ready

Get ready for what Julian faces

A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.

Wildfire
  • Clear dead leaves and brush within 5 feet of the house.
  • Sign up for local alerts and know two ways out.
  • Keep N95 masks for smoky days.
More from Ready.gov ↗
When the river rises
  • Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
  • Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
  • Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
More from Ready.gov ↗
Earthquakes
  • Drop, cover and hold on.
  • Strap tall furniture and the water heater to the wall.
  • Know how to shut off the gas.
More from Ready.gov ↗
Before you buy or rent
  • Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
  • Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
  • Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
When a storm is coming
Forecast and alertsWeather →911, the nearest ERSafety →

Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.

Questions about natural hazards in Julian

Is Julian at risk for natural disasters?

On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Julian has among the highest expected damage per building of U.S. towns: D− for hazard risk. Most of the expected damage is wildfire (80%) and river and rain flooding (12%). The figures are for the one census tract the town shares with its neighbors. This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.

Is Julian in a flood zone?

Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In San Diego County, 24% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 0.7% of all homes do.

How much is flood insurance in Julian?

FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Julian’s flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.

What was the biggest storm in Julian?

By FEMA money that reached Julian, Wildfires, Flooding, Mudflow and Debris Flow Directly Related T (2003): 991 households applied for aid, $2.5M approved.

Is Julian at risk from wildfire?

It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (80%), and Julian’s rate for it is in the top 1% of U.S. census tracts.

Storm stories

Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Julian.

Town Square →
Start the conversation

Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Julian’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.