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Sunflower Ranger StaitonSunflower Ranger Staiton · Photo: Matthew.kowal · CC BY-SA 4.0
D−Hazard risk
Natural hazards in Tonto Basin · FEMA

FEMA expects more hazard damage per building in Tonto Basin than in 98% of U.S. towns, mostly from river and rain flooding

On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Tonto Basin gets a D− for hazard risk: higher expected damage per building than 98% of U.S. towns. Most of that expected damage is river and rain flooding (70%), then wildfire (29%). FEMA’s files show no paid flood insurance claims here.

River and rain flooding 70%Wildfire 29%

Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded

more than 98%of U.S. townsLess damageMoreExpected yearly damage per dollar of building, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade
Hazard risk
D−
in Arizona · higher than 98% of U.S. towns
Main hazard
River and rain flooding
70% of expected building damage
Flood claims
0
paid since 1978 · $0
Disasters paid out here
0
of 12 declared for Gila County

What stands out about Tonto Basin’s natural hazards

From FEMA’s model and FEMA’s records, below.

Wildfire: the top 1% of U.S. tractsFEMA’s building-damage rate for wildfire here ranks in the top 1% of U.S. census tracts; it is 29.3% of the damage it expects.Moved out of harm’s way2 flood-prone properties bought out and cleared with FEMA grants.
By hazard

What Tonto Basin faces

Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.

River and rain flooding

70%of expected building damage
Well above average · in the top 2% of U.S. census tracts
Recorded about 5 times a year in the area

Wildfire

29%of expected building damage
Well above average · in the top 1% of U.S. census tracts
Smaller shares here
 Earthquakes Strong wind Tornadoes Hail Hurricanes Winter storms Heat waves Landslides Lightning Avalanches top 1%
FEMA models no building damage here
Coastal floodingIce stormsCold wavesTsunamisVolcanic activity
People, not buildings.Counting harm to people as well as buildings, FEMA’s model puts river and rain flooding at 80% of Tonto Basin’s expected losses. River and rain flooding does little damage to buildings (69.9%), so they aren’t part of the grade.

Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.

Flood risk changes street by street. Check a specific address on FEMA’s flood map, and ask about flood insurance before you buy.
Hazard risk grade

What’s behind Tonto Basin’s grade

River and rain flooding is 70% of the building damage FEMA expects in Tonto Basin, and Tonto Basin’s rate of river and rain flooding damage is in the top 2% of U.S. census tracts. Wildfire adds 29%, at a rate in the top 1% of U.S. census tracts.

Where Tonto Basin sits
Tonto Basin
Least damageMiddleMost damage

D− higher expected damage per building than 98% of U.S. towns (21,298).

All of Tonto Basin’s residents live in one census tract; the figures are that tract’s.

What drives the damage to buildings
River and rain flooding70%Wildfire29%Everything else1%

In dollars, FEMA expects about $3.3M a year in losses across Tonto Basin: $1.8M to buildings, the rest to people and crops.

Shared tract.All of Tonto Basin’s 1,444 residents (2020 census) live in one census tract, which it shares with Rock House CDP (10 residents). FEMA publishes its model by tract, so the rate and the hazard mix are the tract’s, the same for all of them. The flood claims below are the town’s own.
A shared figure. The grade describes the whole tract, not each street in it, and FEMA’s model is an average year for today’s buildings, not a record: the claims below are the record.

How TownRatings grades hazard risk →

Flood insurance claims

Does Tonto Basin flood? No paid flood claims on record

FEMA’s records show no paid flood insurance claims in Tonto Basin. That’s not a promise: most homes don’t carry flood insurance, so small floods go unrecorded.

of homes in flood zones are insured
of all homes are insured
No community discount

Tonto Basin isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.

Insurance rates: Gila County.
What’s been done with FEMA grants
2flood-prone properties bought out and cleared
Disasters

The storms Tonto Basin remembers

None of the 12 disasters declared for Gila County shows FEMA aid or repair money reaching Tonto Basin itself in FEMA’s records, so these are its biggest flood-claim years.

Disasters declared, by decade
Paid out in Tonto BasinGila County only

Gila County has had 12 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often floods, then severe storms. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.

Also 8 FEMA wildfire suppression grants (Fire Management Assistance, not a disaster declaration) for fires in Gila County, 1999–2021.

Be ready

Get ready for what Tonto Basin faces

A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.

When the river rises
  • Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
  • Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
  • Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
More from Ready.gov ↗
Wildfire
  • Clear dead leaves and brush within 5 feet of the house.
  • Sign up for local alerts and know two ways out.
  • Keep N95 masks for smoky days.
More from Ready.gov ↗
Before you buy or rent
  • Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
  • Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
  • Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
When a storm is coming
Forecast and alertsWeather →911, the nearest ERSafety →

Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.

Questions about natural hazards in Tonto Basin

Is Tonto Basin at risk for natural disasters?

On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Tonto Basin has higher expected damage per building than 98% of U.S. towns: D− for hazard risk. Most of the expected damage is river and rain flooding (70%) and wildfire (29%). The figures are for the one census tract the town shares with its neighbors. This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.

Is Tonto Basin in a flood zone?

Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Gila County, 11% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 0.9% of all homes do.

How much is flood insurance in Tonto Basin?

FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Tonto Basin’s flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.

Is Tonto Basin at risk from river and rain flooding?

It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (70%), and Tonto Basin’s rate for it is in the top 2% of U.S. census tracts.

Storm stories

Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Tonto Basin.

Town Square →
Start the conversation

Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Tonto Basin’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.