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B−Hazard risk
Natural hazards in San Manuel · FEMA

FEMA expects about as much hazard damage per building in San Manuel as in the typical U.S. town, mostly from river and rain flooding

On FEMA’s National Risk Index, San Manuel gets a B− for hazard risk: higher expected damage per building than 51% of U.S. towns, #31 of 140 in Arizona. Most of that expected damage is river and rain flooding (92%). FEMA’s files show no paid flood insurance claims here.

River and rain flooding 92%Wildfire 5%Hail 1%

Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded

more than 51%of U.S. townsLess damageMoreExpected yearly damage per dollar of building, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade#31 of 140 in Arizona
Hazard risk
B−#31 of 140
in Arizona · higher than 51% of U.S. towns
Main hazard
River and rain flooding
92% of expected building damage
Flood claims
0
paid since 1978 · $0
Disasters paid out here
0
of 10 declared for Pinal County
By hazard

What San Manuel faces

Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.

River and rain flooding

92%of expected building damage
Above average · higher than 74% of U.S. census tracts
Recorded about 4 times a year in the area

Wildfire

5%of expected building damage
Well above average · in the top 7% of U.S. census tracts
Smaller shares here
 Hail Earthquakes Strong wind Tornadoes Lightning Hurricanes Winter storms Heat waves Landslides
FEMA models no building damage here
Coastal floodingIce stormsCold wavesAvalanchesTsunamisVolcanic activity
People, not buildings.Counting harm to people as well as buildings, FEMA’s model puts heat waves at 8% of San Manuel’s expected losses. Heat waves do little damage to buildings (0.0%), so they aren’t part of the grade.

Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.

Flood risk changes street by street. Check a specific address on FEMA’s flood map, and ask about flood insurance before you buy.
Hazard risk grade

What’s behind San Manuel’s grade

River and rain flooding is 92% of the building damage FEMA expects in San Manuel, and San Manuel’s rate of river and rain flooding damage is higher than 74% of U.S. census tracts. Wildfire adds 5%, at a rate in the top 7% of U.S. census tracts.

Where San Manuel sits
San Manuel
Least damageMiddleMost damage

B− #31 of 140 in Arizona; higher expected damage per building than 51% of U.S. towns (21,298).

All of San Manuel’s residents live in one census tract; the figures are that tract’s.

What drives the damage to buildings
River and rain flooding92%Wildfire5%Everything else2%

The typical Arizona town has higher expected damage than 78% of U.S. towns; within the state, San Manuel has less expected damage per building than 78% of Arizona towns.

In dollars, FEMA expects about $794K a year in losses across San Manuel: $687K to buildings, the rest to people and crops.

Shared tract.All of San Manuel’s 3,114 residents (2020 census) live in one census tract. FEMA publishes its model by tract, so the rate and the hazard mix are the tract’s. The flood claims below are the town’s own.
A shared figure. The grade describes the whole tract, not each street in it, and FEMA’s model is an average year for today’s buildings, not a record: the claims below are the record.

How TownRatings grades hazard risk →

Flood insurance claims

Does San Manuel flood? No paid flood claims on record

FEMA’s records show no paid flood insurance claims in San Manuel. That’s not a promise: most homes don’t carry flood insurance, so small floods go unrecorded.

of homes in flood zones are insured
of all homes are insured
No community discount

San Manuel isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.

Insurance rates: Pinal County.
Disasters

The storms San Manuel remembers

None of the 10 disasters declared for Pinal County shows FEMA aid or repair money reaching San Manuel itself in FEMA’s records, so these are its biggest flood-claim years.

Disasters declared, by decade
Paid out in San ManuelPinal County only

Pinal County has had 10 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often floods, then severe storms. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.

Also 10 FEMA wildfire suppression grants (Fire Management Assistance, not a disaster declaration) for fires in Pinal County, 2002–2025.

Be ready

Get ready for what San Manuel faces

A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.

When the river rises
  • Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
  • Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
  • Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
More from Ready.gov ↗
Wildfire
  • Clear dead leaves and brush within 5 feet of the house.
  • Sign up for local alerts and know two ways out.
  • Keep N95 masks for smoky days.
More from Ready.gov ↗
Before you buy or rent
  • Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
  • Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
  • Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
When a storm is coming
Forecast and alertsWeather →911, the nearest ERSafety →

Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.

Questions about natural hazards in San Manuel

Is San Manuel at risk for natural disasters?

On FEMA’s National Risk Index, San Manuel has higher expected damage per building than 51% of U.S. towns: B− for hazard risk, #31 of 140 in Arizona. Most of the expected damage is river and rain flooding (92%) and wildfire (5%). The figures are for the one census tract the town shares with its neighbors. This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.

Is San Manuel in a flood zone?

Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Pinal County, 21% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 0.5% of all homes do.

How much is flood insurance in San Manuel?

FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for San Manuel’s flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.

Is San Manuel at risk from river and rain flooding?

It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (92%), and San Manuel’s rate for it is higher than 74% of U.S. census tracts.

Storm stories

Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in San Manuel.

Town Square →
Start the conversation

Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where San Manuel’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.