FEMA expects more hazard damage per building in Willow than in 96% of U.S. towns, mostly from earthquakes
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Willow gets a D− for hazard risk: higher expected damage per building than 96% of U.S. towns. Most of that expected damage is earthquakes (75%), then wildfire (17%). Flood insurance has paid 11 claims here since 2006.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What Willow faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
Earthquakes
Wildfire
River and rain flooding
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind Willow’s grade
Earthquakes are 75% of the building damage FEMA expects in Willow, and Willow’s rate of earthquakes damage is in the top 1% of U.S. census tracts. Wildfire adds 17%, at a rate in the top 2% of U.S. census tracts.
D− higher expected damage per building than 96% of U.S. towns (21,298).
Willow’s residents live in 2 census tracts; FEMA’s figures are combined by where they live.
In dollars, FEMA expects about $19.7M a year in losses across Willow: $3.5M to buildings, the rest to people and crops.
Does Willow flood? Sometimes: 11 flood claims since 2006
Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in Willow, from FEMA’s records: 5.6 per 1,000 homes, more than 63% of the 13,809 U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
Willow isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.
Insurance rates: Matanuska-Susitna Borough.3 federal disasters brought FEMA money to Willow
Disasters that paid out in Willow itself (aid to households or repair grants to Willow), newest first, with that year’s flood claims.
- 2018Earthquake101 households applied for aid$440K aid approved
- 2003Severe Winter Storm, Including High Winds and Freezing Temperatures3 households applied for aid$977 aid approved
- 2002Earthquake1 households applied for aid$3K aid approved
Matanuska-Susitna Borough has had 14 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often severe storms, then floods.
Also 3 FEMA wildfire suppression grants (Fire Management Assistance, not a disaster declaration) for fires in Matanuska-Susitna Borough, 2015–2019.
Old photos of Willow after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.
Add to the Willow archive →Willow and its neighbors
Willow is 4th of the 7 graded towns here, from least expected damage per building to most. Tap a town to see its hazards.
| Town | Hazard risk | Mostly (buildings) | Flood claims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Susitna North | C−more damage than 84% | earthquakes | — |
| Fishhook | Dmore damage than 90% | earthquakes | — |
| Tanaina | Dmore damage than 93% | earthquakes | 1 |
| Willow | D−more damage than 96% | earthquakes | 11 |
| Meadow Lakes | D−more damage than 97% | earthquakes | 5 |
| Big Lake | D−more damage than 98% | earthquakes | 1 |
| Houston | D−more damage than 98% | earthquakes | 4 |
Hazard risk = FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade; the map is shaded by fifths of the same scale. Flood claims = paid federal flood insurance claims on record.
Get ready for what Willow faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap tall furniture and the water heater to the wall.
- Know how to shut off the gas.
- Clear dead leaves and brush within 5 feet of the house.
- Sign up for local alerts and know two ways out.
- Keep N95 masks for smoky days.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in Willow
Is Willow at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Willow has higher expected damage per building than 96% of U.S. towns: D− for hazard risk. Most of the expected damage is earthquakes (75%) and wildfire (17%). This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Does Willow flood?
Flood insurance has paid 11 claims in Willow since 2006, $427K in all, or 5.6 per 1,000 homes, more than 63% of U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
Is Willow in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Matanuska-Susitna Borough, 23% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 0.4% of all homes do.
How much is flood insurance in Willow?
FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Willow’s flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
What was the biggest storm in Willow?
By FEMA money that reached Willow, Earthquake (2018): 101 households applied for aid, $440K approved.
Is Willow at risk from earthquakes?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (75%), and Willow’s rate for it is in the top 1% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Willow.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Willow’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.