Photo: Ian Poellet · CC BY-SA 3.0Phoenix’s building-damage rate from wildfire is in the top 4% of U.S. census tracts
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Phoenix gets a C+ for hazard risk: higher expected damage per building than 62% of U.S. towns, #51 of 142 in Oregon. Most of that expected damage is river and rain flooding (63%), then earthquakes (23%). Flood insurance has paid 2 claims here since 1997.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What Phoenix faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
River and rain flooding
Earthquakes
Wildfire
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind Phoenix’s grade
River and rain flooding is 63% of the building damage FEMA expects in Phoenix, and Phoenix’s rate of river and rain flooding damage is higher than 59% of U.S. census tracts. Wildfire adds 14%, at a rate in the top 4% of U.S. census tracts.
C+ #51 of 142 in Oregon; higher expected damage per building than 62% of U.S. towns (21,298).
Phoenix’s residents live in 3 census tracts; FEMA’s figures are combined by where they live.
The typical Oregon town has higher expected damage than 69% of U.S. towns; within the state, Phoenix has less expected damage per building than 65% of Oregon towns.
In dollars, FEMA expects about $1.7M a year in losses across Phoenix: $1.4M to buildings, the rest to people and crops.
Does Phoenix flood? Rarely: 2 flood claims since 1997
Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in Phoenix, from FEMA’s records: 1.0 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 78% of the 13,809 U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
Phoenix isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.
Insurance rates: Jackson County.2 federal disasters brought FEMA money to Phoenix
Disasters that paid out in Phoenix itself (aid to households or repair grants to the City of Phoenix), newest first, with that year’s flood claims.
- 2020Wildfires and Straight-line Winds933 households applied for aid$3.6M aid approved$1.4M to the City of Phoenix for repairs
- 2005Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides$6K to the City of Phoenix for repairs
Jackson County has had 7 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often severe storms, then floods. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Also 11 FEMA wildfire suppression grants (Fire Management Assistance, not a disaster declaration) for fires in Jackson County, 2002–2026.
Old photos of Phoenix after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.
Add to the Phoenix archive →Phoenix and its neighbors
Phoenix is 2nd of the 2 graded towns here, from least expected damage per building to most. Tap a town to see its hazards.
| Town | Hazard risk | Mostly (buildings) | Flood claims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medford | B−more damage than 51% | river and rain flooding | 15 |
| Phoenix | C+more damage than 62% | river and rain flooding | 2 |
Hazard risk = FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade; the map is shaded by fifths of the same scale. Flood claims = paid federal flood insurance claims on record.
Get ready for what Phoenix faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap tall furniture and the water heater to the wall.
- Know how to shut off the gas.
- Clear dead leaves and brush within 5 feet of the house.
- Sign up for local alerts and know two ways out.
- Keep N95 masks for smoky days.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in Phoenix
Is Phoenix at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Phoenix has higher expected damage per building than 62% of U.S. towns: C+ for hazard risk, #51 of 142 in Oregon. Most of the expected damage is river and rain flooding (63%) and earthquakes (23%). This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Does Phoenix flood?
Flood insurance has paid 2 claims in Phoenix since 1997, $36K in all, or 1.0 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 78% of U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
Is Phoenix in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Jackson County, 28% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 1.1% of all homes do.
How much is flood insurance in Phoenix?
FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Phoenix’s flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
What was the biggest storm in Phoenix?
By FEMA money that reached Phoenix, Wildfires and Straight-line Winds (2020): 933 households applied for aid, $3.6M approved, and $1.4M to the City of Phoenix for repairs.
Is Phoenix at risk from river and rain flooding?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (63%), and Phoenix’s rate for it is higher than 59% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Phoenix.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Phoenix’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.