For strong wind, Toluca’s building-damage rate is in the top 3% of U.S. census tracts
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Toluca gets a B for hazard risk: lower expected damage per building than 60% of U.S. towns. Most of that expected damage is river and rain flooding (70%), then tornadoes (12%). Flood insurance has paid 1 claim here since 2014.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What Toluca faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
River and rain flooding
Tornadoes
Strong wind
Earthquakes
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind Toluca’s grade
River and rain flooding is 70% of the building damage FEMA expects in Toluca, and Toluca’s rate of river and rain flooding damage is lower than 52% of U.S. census tracts. Strong wind adds 10%, at a rate in the top 3% of U.S. census tracts.
B lower expected damage per building than 60% of U.S. towns (21,298).
All of Toluca’s residents live in one census tract; the figures are that tract’s.
In dollars, FEMA expects about $951K a year in losses across Toluca: $561K to buildings, the rest to people and crops.
Does Toluca flood? Rarely: 1 flood claim since 2014
Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in Toluca, from FEMA’s records: 1.5 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 68% of the 13,809 U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
Toluca isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.
Insurance rates: Marshall County.5 federal disasters brought FEMA money to Toluca
Disasters that paid out in Toluca itself (aid to households or repair grants to the City of Toluca), newest first, with that year’s flood claims.
- 2013Severe Storms, Straight-line Winds, and Flooding14 households applied for aid$30K aid approved$7K to the City of Toluca for repairs
- 2011Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm$7K to the City of Toluca for repairs
- 2006Snow$6K to the City of Toluca for repairs
- 2000Illinois Winter Snow Storms$4K to the City of Toluca for repairs
- 1999Il-winter Storm 1/1/99$6K to the City of Toluca for repairs
Marshall County has had 11 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often winter storms, then floods. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Old photos of Toluca after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.
Add to the Toluca archive →Get ready for what Toluca faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- Pick your spot now: the lowest floor, an inside room, no windows.
- A watch means be ready; a warning means take cover now.
- Keep shoes and a flashlight by the bed.
- Trim dead limbs over the house and driveway.
- Tie down trash cans and outdoor furniture.
- Stay clear of downed lines and call the utility.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap tall furniture and the water heater to the wall.
- Know how to shut off the gas.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in Toluca
Is Toluca at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Toluca has lower expected damage per building than 60% of U.S. towns: B for hazard risk. Most of the expected damage is river and rain flooding (70%) and tornadoes (12%). The figures are for the one census tract the town shares with its neighbors. This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Does Toluca flood?
Flood insurance has paid 1 claim in Toluca since 2014, $2K in all, or 1.5 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 68% of U.S. towns with a flood insurance record. 1 properties have flooded more than once.
Is Toluca in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Marshall County, 21% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 0.4% of all homes do.
How much is flood insurance in Toluca?
FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Toluca’s flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
What was the biggest storm in Toluca?
By FEMA money that reached Toluca, Severe Storms, Straight-line Winds, and Flooding (2013): 14 households applied for aid, $30K approved, and $7K to the City of Toluca for repairs.
Is Toluca at risk from river and rain flooding?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (70%), and Toluca’s rate for it is lower than 52% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Toluca.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Toluca’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.