More hazard damage per building is expected in Flagler Estates than in 85% of U.S. towns, mostly from river and rain flooding
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Flagler Estates gets a C− for hazard risk: higher expected damage per building than 85% of U.S. towns, #380 of 638 in Florida. Most of that expected damage is river and rain flooding (75%), then hurricanes (18%). FEMA’s files show no paid flood insurance claims here.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What Flagler Estates faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
River and rain flooding
Hurricanes
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind Flagler Estates’ grade
River and rain flooding is 75% of the building damage FEMA expects in Flagler Estates, and Flagler Estates’ rate of river and rain flooding damage is higher than 87% of U.S. census tracts. Wildfire adds 4%, at a rate in the top 7% of U.S. census tracts.
C− #380 of 638 in Florida; higher expected damage per building than 85% of U.S. towns (21,298).
All of Flagler Estates’ residents live in one census tract; the figures are that tract’s.
The typical Florida town has higher expected damage than 79% of U.S. towns; within the state, Flagler Estates has more expected damage per building than 59% of Florida towns.
In dollars, FEMA expects about $1.1M a year in losses across Flagler Estates: $751K to buildings, the rest to people and crops.
Does Flagler Estates flood? No paid flood claims on record
FEMA’s records show no paid flood insurance claims in Flagler Estates. That’s not a promise: most homes don’t carry flood insurance, so small floods go unrecorded.
Flagler Estates isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.
Insurance rates: St. Johns County.The storms Flagler Estates remembers
None of the 22 disasters declared for St. Johns County shows FEMA aid or repair money reaching Flagler Estates itself in FEMA’s records, so these are its biggest flood-claim years.
St. Johns County has had 22 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often hurricanes and tropical storms, then severe storms. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Get ready for what Flagler Estates faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- The season runs June through November and peaks from mid-August to mid-October.
- Bring in porch furniture and anything the wind can throw.
- Fill the gas tank and charge phones before the storm arrives.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in Flagler Estates
Is Flagler Estates at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Flagler Estates has higher expected damage per building than 85% of U.S. towns: C− for hazard risk, #380 of 638 in Florida. Most of the expected damage is river and rain flooding (75%) and hurricanes (18%). The figures are for the one census tract the town shares with its neighbors. This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Is Flagler Estates in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In St. Johns County, 23.2% of all homes carry federal flood insurance.
How much is flood insurance in Flagler Estates?
FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Flagler Estates’ flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
Is Flagler Estates at risk from river and rain flooding?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (75%), and Flagler Estates’ rate for it is higher than 87% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Flagler Estates.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Flagler Estates’ residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.