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C−Hazard risk
Natural hazards in Dover · FEMA

More hazard damage per building is expected in Dover than in 77% of U.S. towns, led by river and rain flooding

On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Dover gets a C− for hazard risk: higher expected damage per building than 77% of U.S. towns, #288 of 638 in Florida. Most of that expected damage is river and rain flooding (47%), then hurricanes (43%). FEMA’s files show no paid flood insurance claims here.

River and rain flooding 47%Hurricanes 43%Tornadoes 6%

Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded

more than 77%of U.S. townsLess damageMoreExpected yearly damage per dollar of building, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade#288 of 638 in Florida
Hazard risk
C−#288 of 638
in Florida · higher than 77% of U.S. towns
Main hazard
River and rain flooding
47% of expected building damage
Flood claims
0
paid since 1978 · $0
Disasters paid out here
9
of 34 declared for Hillsborough County
By hazard

What Dover faces

Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.

River and rain flooding

47%of expected building damage
About average · higher than 56% of U.S. census tracts
Recorded about 2 times a year in the area

Hurricanes

43%of expected building damage
Well above average · in the top 9% of U.S. census tracts
Recorded about once every 4 years in the area

Tornadoes

6%of expected building damage
Above average · higher than 71% of U.S. census tracts
Smaller shares here
 Wildfire Hail Strong wind Earthquakes Cold waves Lightning Heat waves Landslides
FEMA models no building damage here
Coastal floodingWinter stormsIce stormsAvalanchesTsunamisVolcanic activity
People, not buildings.Counting harm to people as well as buildings, FEMA’s model puts cold waves at 17% of Dover’s expected losses. Cold waves do little damage to buildings (0.1%), so they aren’t part of the grade.

Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.

Flood risk changes street by street. Check a specific address on FEMA’s flood map, and ask about flood insurance before you buy.
Hazard risk grade

What’s behind Dover’s grade

River and rain flooding is 47% of the building damage FEMA expects in Dover, and Dover’s rate of river and rain flooding damage is higher than 56% of U.S. census tracts. Hurricanes add 43%, at a rate in the top 9% of U.S. census tracts.

Where Dover sits
Dover
Least damageMiddleMost damage

C− #288 of 638 in Florida; higher expected damage per building than 77% of U.S. towns (21,298).

Dover’s residents live in 2 census tracts; FEMA’s figures are combined by where they live.

What drives the damage to buildings
River and rain flooding47%Hurricanes43%Tornadoes6%Everything else4%

The typical Florida town has higher expected damage than 79% of U.S. towns; within the state, Dover has less expected damage per building than 55% of Florida towns.

In dollars, FEMA expects about $1.4M a year in losses across Dover: $663K to buildings, the rest to people and crops.

Recent disaster.FEMA’s model looks at expected damage to the buildings standing today. After Hurricane Milton in 2024, FEMA took 2,464 aid registrations from Dover addresses (the town has 1,100 homes).
A small-area figure. Dover covers 2 census tracts, combined by where residents live. FEMA’s model is an average year for today’s buildings, not a record: the claims and disasters below are the record.

How TownRatings grades hazard risk →

Flood insurance claims

Does Dover flood? No paid flood claims on record

FEMA’s records show no paid flood insurance claims in Dover. That’s not a promise: most homes don’t carry flood insurance, so small floods go unrecorded.

of homes in flood zones are insured
of all homes are insured
No community discount

Dover isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.

Insurance rates: Hillsborough County.
Disasters

9 federal disasters brought FEMA money to Dover

Disasters that paid out in Dover itself (aid to households or repair grants to Dover), newest first, with that year’s flood claims.

  1. 2024Hurricane Milton2,464 households applied for aid$3.9M aid approved
  2. 2024Hurricane Helene247 households applied for aid$250K aid approved
  3. 2024Hurricane Debby28 households applied for aid$46K aid approved
  4. 2023Hurricane Idalia21 households applied for aid$14K aid approved
  5. 2022Hurricane Ian872 households applied for aid$510K aid approved
  6. 2017Hurricane Irma1,204 households applied for aid$506K aid approved
Show all 9
  1. 2016Hurricane Hermine3 households applied for aid$8K aid approved
  2. 2004Hurricane Jeanne318 households applied for aid$521K aid approved
  3. 2004Hurricane Frances129 households applied for aid$188K aid approved
Disasters declared, by decade
Paid out in DoverHillsborough County only

Hillsborough County has had 34 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often hurricanes and tropical storms, then severe storms. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.

Also 3 FEMA wildfire suppression grants (Fire Management Assistance, not a disaster declaration) for fires in Hillsborough County, 1999–2001.

Were you here?

Old photos of Dover after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.

Add to the Dover archive →
Be ready

Get ready for what Dover faces

A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.

When the river rises
  • Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
  • Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
  • Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
More from Ready.gov ↗
Hurricane season
  • The season runs June through November and peaks from mid-August to mid-October.
  • Bring in porch furniture and anything the wind can throw.
  • Fill the gas tank and charge phones before the storm arrives.
More from Ready.gov ↗
Tornado warnings
  • Pick your spot now: the lowest floor, an inside room, no windows.
  • A watch means be ready; a warning means take cover now.
  • Keep shoes and a flashlight by the bed.
More from Ready.gov ↗
Before you buy or rent
  • Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
  • Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
  • Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
When a storm is coming
Forecast and alertsWeather →911, the nearest ERSafety →

Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.

Questions about natural hazards in Dover

Is Dover at risk for natural disasters?

On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Dover has higher expected damage per building than 77% of U.S. towns: C− for hazard risk, #288 of 638 in Florida. Most of the expected damage is river and rain flooding (47%) and hurricanes (43%). This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.

Is Dover in a flood zone?

Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Hillsborough County, 61% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 12.1% of all homes do.

How much is flood insurance in Dover?

FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Dover’s flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.

What was the biggest storm in Dover?

By FEMA money that reached Dover, Hurricane Milton (2024): 2,464 households applied for aid, $3.9M approved.

Is Dover at risk from river and rain flooding?

It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (47%), and Dover’s rate for it is higher than 56% of U.S. census tracts.

Storm stories

Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Dover.

Town Square →
Start the conversation

Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Dover’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.