Photo: SriMesh · CC BY-SA 3.0Mayfair faces fewer hazards than 91% of Canadian towns
Little of the land around Mayfair has burned: 0.2% within 25 km since 1986, or 0.004% a year. Seismic risk runs low: $0.006 of expected damage per $1,000 of buildings a year, the typical town $0.030. In Health Canada’s survey, 6.6% of homes tested in Mayfair’s area exceeded 200 Bq/m³, close to the typical 6.6%. Mayfair grades A for hazard risk, with wildfire counted against it.
What stands out about Mayfair’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Mayfair: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Mayfair faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Mayfair: A
For Mayfair, Risk will be the average of earthquakes and radon, with wildfire added only if it makes the average worse.
Its place: #9 of 104 in Saskatchewan and #299 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Only 76 homes were tested in the survey area, so the radon share is rough. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Few fires near Mayfair: 0% within 5 km, 0.2% within 25 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Mayfair’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
Low: the land around Mayfair burns at 0.004% a year, where the typical Canadian town sees 0.000%.
The 5 km ring around Mayfair’s homes is clear of burns since 1986, the nearest 24 km out.
Around Mayfair the forest is thin or far off: 0% of the land within 5 km and 0% within 25 km is forest fuel.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Saskatchewan · highest of 104
At 0.004% a year, Mayfair ranks 45th of the 104 towns in Saskatchewan; La Loche leads at 1.94%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Some fire is mapped around Mayfair, but not enough to leave the low band, where 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns are; 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
No flood study is listed for Mayfair
Flood studies whose area touches Mayfair, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
No flood study on the national inventory covers Mayfair; ask the municipality, which is the authority for its flood maps.
Towns with a flood study on file
Only 55% of towns in Saskatchewan have a flood study, short of Canada’s 58%, and Mayfair is not among them.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood is shown here, never graded: a study says where a map exists, not how many of Mayfair’s homes stand in a flood zone.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Earthquakes cost buildings in Mayfair just $0.006 per $1,000 a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Shaking costs the typical town $0.030 a year; in Mayfair it is only $0.006, 0.2 times as much.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Mayfair’s $0.006 is close to the median in Saskatchewan, $0.006; Weyburn is highest at $0.033.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Earthquakes cost less around Mayfair than in 88% of Canada’s 2,611 towns.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The loss is to Mayfair’s buildings alone, from ground shaking; infrastructure and secondary hazards are left out.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean). · Data for earthquake risk covers the city of Saskatoon
Radon about average around Mayfair: 6.6% over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
Mayfair’s area, at 6.6%, is close to the 6.6% of the typical Canadian town.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Mayfair’s area, at 6.6%, is below the median in Saskatchewan (9.1%).
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Between 5% and 10% of tests over the guideline: Mayfair, and 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 26% are higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
One home in Mayfair can be high while next door is low; a three-month test settles it.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Area behind the radon tests figures: the Saskatoon RHA
Weather and fire alerts for Mayfair
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Mayfair; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
In fire season, check CWFIS for danger and active fires around Mayfair, and listen to local authorities for orders.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Mayfair’s neighbours compare on hazards
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mayfair | Low | $0.006 | 6.6% | None listed |
| Caswell Hill 2,573 · 0.9 km | Low | $0.006 | 6.6% | Yes |
| City Park 3,827 · 1.7 km | Low | $0.006 | 6.6% | Yes |
| Mount Royal 5,292 · 1.8 km | Low | $0.006 | 6.6% | None listed |
| Westmount 2,872 · 1.9 km | Low | $0.006 | 6.6% | Yes |
| North Park 5,000 · 2.0 km | Low | $0.006 | 6.6% | Yes |
| Central Business District 4,987 · 2.0 km | Low | $0.006 | 6.6% | Yes |
Central Business District burns a little more than Mayfair, in the same low band (low here).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Mayfair faces
Practical steps for Mayfair’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of Mayfair’s homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in Mayfair.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as Mayfair’s.
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, Mayfair takes its 2007 health region’s share.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Mayfair
How is Mayfair’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Mayfair A, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
Is Mayfair at risk of wildfire?
Some, but Mayfair’s low band (0.2% of nearby land burned since 1986, latest 2023) is short of the level that counts.
How big is the earthquake risk in Mayfair?
About $0.006 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Mayfair.
Does Mayfair flood?
The inventory has 0 studies for Mayfair, and an empty list isn’t a clean bill: the municipality holds any flood maps.
Is radon a problem in Mayfair?
The area’s survey found 6.6% of 76 tested homes above Health Canada’s guideline, so a three-month test is worth doing in Mayfair.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).