Photo: Drm310 · CC BY-SA 3.0Hazard risk in Avalon is lower than in 91% of Canadian towns
Little of the land around Avalon has burned: 0.6% within 25 km since 1986, or 0.01% a year. Shaking is less of a worry than in most places, at $0.006 a year per $1,000 of building value ($0.030 typical). In Health Canada’s survey, 6.6% of homes tested in Avalon’s area exceeded 200 Bq/m³, close to the typical 6.6%. Hazard risk gives Avalon a grade of A; its wildfire band pulls it down.
What stands out about Avalon’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Avalon: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Avalon faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Avalon: A
Seismic risk and radon set Avalon’s grade, wildfire can drag it down, and flood mapping stays out of it.
Its place: #9 of 104 in Saskatchewan and #299 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. The radon share rests on 76 home tests in the survey area, so a few homes move it. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Few fires near Avalon: 0% within 5 km, 0.6% within 25 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Avalon’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
Around Avalon fire takes 0.01% of the land in a typical year, the typical Canadian town 0.000%, which is low.
The 5 km ring around Avalon’s homes is clear of burns since 1986, the nearest 18 km out.
With 0% forest fuel within 5 km and 0% within 25 km, the land around Avalon gives a fire little to burn.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Saskatchewan · highest of 104
Avalon ranks 24th of the 104 towns in Saskatchewan for burn rate, at 0.01% a year; La Loche leads with 1.94%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Avalon is in the low band with 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns; 7.5% sit in moderate or higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Water Security Agency has mapped flooding for Avalon (1 study)
Flood studies whose area touches Avalon, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
The flood study touching Avalon is Water Security Agency’s, dated 2024; its own map shows the zones street by street.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| City of Saskatoon Flood Mapping Study | Water Security Agency | 2024 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Avalon is one of the 55% of towns in Saskatchewan with a flood study on file, fewer than Canada’s 58%.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
The grade leaves flood out, since a study area says nothing about how many of Avalon’s homes are at risk.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Earthquakes cost buildings in Avalon just $0.006 per $1,000 a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Shaking costs the typical town $0.030 a year; in Avalon it is only $0.006, 0.2 times as much.
Avalon doesn’t get its own earthquake risk figures; the ones here come from the city of Saskatoon.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
About level with the typical town in Saskatchewan: Avalon’s $0.006 against $0.006; Weyburn reaches $0.033.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
88% of Canada’s 2,611 towns expect more shaking damage than Avalon.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The loss is to Avalon’s buildings alone, from ground shaking; infrastructure and secondary hazards are left out.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Some radon around Avalon: 6.6% of area homes over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline. · Source area for radon tests: the Saskatoon RHA
Avalon’s area sits close to the typical Canadian town: 6.6% over the guideline, against 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Radon runs lower around Avalon than in most towns in Saskatchewan: 6.6% against 9.1%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Between 5% and 10% of tests over the guideline: Avalon, and 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 26% are higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
A survey sample isn’t a map: any home in Avalon can be high, and a three-month test is the only way to know.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Avalon
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Avalon; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
In fire season, check CWFIS for danger and active fires around Avalon, and listen to local authorities for orders.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Avalon
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avalon | Low | $0.006 | 6.6% | Yes |
| Adelaide/Churchill 2,652 · 1.4 km | Low | $0.006 | 6.6% | None listed |
| Buena Vista 5,777 · 1.6 km | Low | $0.006 | 6.6% | Yes |
| Haultain 6,126 · 1.9 km | Low | $0.006 | 6.6% | Yes |
| Nutana Park 3,045 · 2.3 km | Low | $0.006 | 6.6% | None listed |
| Holliston 2,963 · 2.4 km | Low | $0.006 | 6.6% | None listed |
| Grosvenor Park 6,240 · 3.1 km | Low | $0.006 | 6.6% | Yes |
Adelaide/Churchill burns a little more than Avalon, in the same low band (low here).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Avalon faces
Practical steps for Avalon’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; Avalon’s figure is its subdivision’s.
- Radon is a survey. Radon figures pool the survey’s home tests by area: postal areas once their boundaries arrive, the 2007 health region around Avalon until then.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. Flood studies cover areas of every size, which is why the page lists them for Avalon without grading them.
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around Avalon’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Avalon
Is radon a problem in Avalon?
The area’s survey found 6.6% of 76 tested homes above Health Canada’s guideline, so a three-month test is worth doing in Avalon.
How big is the earthquake risk in Avalon?
About $0.006 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Avalon.
Is Avalon at risk of wildfire?
Some, but Avalon’s low band (0.6% of nearby land burned since 1986, latest 2023) is short of the level that counts.
Does Avalon flood?
A flood study covers Avalon on Canada’s Flood Map Inventory; open the owner’s map to check a street, since flood isn’t graded.
How is Avalon’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Avalon’s Hazard risk grade is A, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).