Photo: Masalai · CC BY-SA 3.025% of homes tested in Grenfell’s area are above the radon guideline
Fire has left almost no mark near Grenfell: 0% of the land within 25 km since 1986, 0.000% a year. Seismic risk runs low: $0.006 of expected damage per $1,000 of buildings a year, the typical town $0.030. Hazard risk gives Grenfell a grade of B−, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Grenfell’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Grenfell: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Grenfell faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Grenfell grades B− for hazard risk
Risk averages earthquakes and radon; wildfire joins only where it pulls the average down, so a town like Grenfell with little fire nearby would get no credit for it.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Little of the land around Grenfell has burned: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km since 1986
Past fire around Grenfell’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
The yearly burn rate around Grenfell is 0.000%, low beside 0.000% for the typical Canadian town.
Around Grenfell the forest is thin or far off: 0% of the land within 5 km and 0% within 25 km is forest fuel.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Saskatchewan · highest of 105
To three decimals the burn rate around Grenfell is zero, as for 55 of the 105 towns in Saskatchewan, while La Loche reaches 1.94%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Measured against 2,610 towns, Grenfell is in the largest group, low (92%), and at its floor, while 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
The flood map inventory lists nothing for Grenfell
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Grenfell: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
Nationally, Grenfell has no listed flood study; the municipality is the place to ask.
Towns with a flood study on file
No study touches Grenfell; in Saskatchewan, 55% of towns have one, below Canada’s 58%.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood studies don’t enter the grade; they are listed so you can open the official map for Grenfell.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Little shaking expected in Grenfell: $0.006 a year per $1,000
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
Grenfell’s $0.006 is a fraction of the typical town’s $0.030 (0.2 times as much): quiet ground by Canadian standards.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Shaking damage around Grenfell runs at $0.006 a year, near the $0.006 of the typical town in Saskatchewan; Weyburn has $0.033.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Earthquakes cost less around Grenfell than in 88% of Canada’s 2,611 towns.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Roads, pipes and bridges aren’t in Grenfell’s figure, nor landslides or tsunami: it is buildings and shaking.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
25% of homes tested around Grenfell are over the radon guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
A higher share than most: 25% of tested homes around Grenfell, the typical Canadian town 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Around Grenfell, 25% of tests were over 200 Bq/m³ and 4.3% over 600, against a median of 9.1% in Saskatchewan.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Grenfell is in the 20–30% band, which holds only 3.1% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 1.5% are higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
One home in Grenfell can be high while next door is low; a three-month test settles it.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Radon tests: one figure for all of the Regina Qu'Appelle RHA
Weather and fire alerts for Grenfell
Alerts for Grenfell come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Fire danger and active fires near Grenfell are mapped daily by the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System; evacuation orders come from the municipality or province.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Get ready for what Grenfell faces
What to do about the hazards Grenfell faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as Grenfell’s.
- Radon is a survey. The radon share comes from about 14,000 long-term home tests in 2009–2011, pooled for now by the 2007 health region Grenfell sits in.
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of Grenfell’s homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. A study’s area can be a whole watershed or province, so being on the inventory says a map exists, not that a home in Grenfell floods.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Grenfell
Is radon a problem in Grenfell?
In Health Canada’s survey, 25% of 94 homes tested in Grenfell’s area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
Does Grenfell flood?
Nothing is listed for Grenfell on the national inventory (0); local maps may still exist with the municipality.
Is Grenfell at risk of wildfire?
No meaningful wildfire history near Grenfell: 0% of nearby land since 1986, band low.
How big is the earthquake risk in Grenfell?
NRCan’s model expects shaking to cost buildings in Grenfell $0.006 a year for every $1,000 of their value, on average over many years.
How is Grenfell’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Grenfell grades B− for hazard risk, from earthquakes and radon, with wildfire counted only where it lowers the grade.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).