Photo: Cantons-de-l'Est · CC BY-SA 4.0A flood study covers Waterville: 3 on the national inventory, the newest from Ville de Sherbrooke
Wildfire is rare near Waterville: 0% of the land within 25 km has burned since 1986, a burn rate of 0.000% a year. For earthquakes Waterville is middling, $0.039 a year per $1,000 against $0.030 for the typical town. Waterville’s survey area, 7.3% over the radon guideline, is close to the typical town’s 6.6%. Hazard risk gives Waterville a grade of B, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Waterville’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Waterville: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Waterville faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Waterville grades B for hazard risk
Seismic risk and radon set Waterville’s grade, wildfire can drag it down, and flood mapping stays out of it.
Its place: #54 of 507 in Quebec and #1,416 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. The radon share rests on 55 home tests in the survey area, so a few homes move it. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Wildfire is rare near Waterville: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0.1% within 5 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Waterville’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
Around Waterville fire takes 0.000% of the land in a typical year, the typical Canadian town 0.000%, which is low.
Forest fuel covers 24% of the land close to Waterville and 36% across 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Quebec · highest of 513
Little or nothing burns around Waterville in a typical year; 144 of the 513 towns in Quebec share that, and Mistissini leads at 0.31%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns are in the low band and 7.5% above it; Waterville is among the many where the yearly burn rate rounds to zero.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Flooding around Waterville is mapped in 3 studies, the newest by Ville de Sherbrooke
Flood studies whose area touches Waterville, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
3 studies on the inventory touch Waterville, the newest Ville de Sherbrooke’s from 2010, and their areas can be large, so they say maps exist, not that the town floods.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sherbrooke Zones inondables | Ville de Sherbrooke | 2010 | final |
| Sherbrooke-Lennoxville | Gouvernement du Québec | 2004 | final |
| Waterville | Gouvernement du Québec | 2004 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Waterville is one of the 45% of towns in Quebec with a flood study on file, fewer than Canada’s 58%.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Mapping around Waterville began in the 2000s; the 2000s saw the most work (2 of 3 studies), the latest in the 2010s.
Study dates as the NRCan inventory lists them, one count per study touching Waterville.
Listed, not scored: a flood study proves a map exists, not that Waterville floods.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Ordinary seismic risk in Waterville: $0.039 per $1,000 of buildings a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Nothing unusual about Waterville’s ground: $0.039 against a typical $0.030, 1.3 times.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Waterville’s $0.039 sits under the median in Quebec, $0.14, and well under La Pocatière’s $0.48.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Neither high nor low for Canada: 45% of the 2,611 towns expect more damage than Waterville.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The loss is to Waterville’s buildings alone, from ground shaking; infrastructure and secondary hazards are left out.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
7.3% of homes tested around Waterville are over the radon guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline. · Shared with the rest of the Estrie health region: radon tests
Waterville’s area sits close to the typical Canadian town: 7.3% over the guideline, against 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Waterville’s area, at 7.3%, is close to the median in Quebec (8.2%).
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Between 5% and 10% of tests over the guideline: Waterville, and 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 26% are higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Basements, soil and how a house is sealed decide its radon, so in Waterville only a test can say.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Waterville
Alerts for Waterville come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Fire danger and active fires near Waterville are mapped daily by the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System; evacuation orders come from the municipality or province.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Waterville’s neighbours compare on hazards
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waterville | Low | $0.039 | 7.3% | Yes |
| Hatley 2,512 · 3.0 km | Low | $0.046 | 7.3% | Yes |
| Compton 3,351 · 7.5 km | Low | $0.039 | 7.3% | None listed |
| Sherbrooke 184,135 · 11 km | Low | $0.043 | 7.3% | Yes |
| Sainte-Catherine-de-Hatley 2,938 · 12 km | Low | $0.038 | 7.3% | Yes |
| Ascot Corner 3,725 · 18 km | Low | $0.044 | 7.3% | Yes |
| Ayer's Cliff 1,284 · 19 km | Low | $0.042 | 7.3% | Yes |
The fire record around Ascot Corner is a touch heavier than Waterville’s, but the band is the same: low (here low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Waterville faces
Practical steps for Waterville’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. A study’s area can be a whole watershed or province, so being on the inventory says a map exists, not that a home in Waterville floods.
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around Waterville’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
- Radon is a survey. The radon share comes from about 14,000 long-term home tests in 2009–2011, pooled for now by the 2007 health region Waterville sits in.
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; Waterville’s figure is its subdivision’s.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Waterville
Is Waterville at risk of wildfire?
Some, but Waterville’s low band (0% of nearby land burned since 1986, latest 2005) is short of the level that counts.
How big is the earthquake risk in Waterville?
Expected earthquake damage in Waterville comes to $0.039 a year for each $1,000 that buildings are worth.
How is Waterville’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Waterville’s Hazard risk grade is B, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Is radon a problem in Waterville?
The area’s survey found 7.3% of 55 tested homes above Health Canada’s guideline, so a three-month test is worth doing in Waterville.
Does Waterville flood?
Waterville’s area has been studied for flooding, and the owner’s map shows which streets lie in a zone; the grade leaves flood out.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).