Photo: Neil and Kathy Carey from Edmonton, Canada · CC BY-SA 2.0A flood study covers Malpeque Bay: 2 on the national inventory, the newest from Department of Environment, Energy and Climate Action - Government of Prince Edward Island
Wildfire isn’t Malpeque Bay’s worry: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986 (0.000% a year). Shaking is about as much of a worry in Malpeque Bay as in most places, at $0.027 a year per $1,000 of building value ($0.030 typical). Radon is lower than usual: 3.5% of tested homes in the survey area topped the guideline, against 6.6% for the typical town. Hazard risk gives Malpeque Bay a grade of A−, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Malpeque Bay’s hazards
For Malpeque Bay, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Malpeque Bay faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Malpeque Bay: A−
Two inputs always count for Malpeque Bay, earthquakes and radon; the third, wildfire, counts only against a town.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Few fires near Malpeque Bay: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Malpeque Bay’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
A burn rate of 0.000% a year keeps Malpeque Bay in the low band (the typical Canadian town: 0.000%).
The nearer ring around Malpeque Bay is less wooded (5.8% forest fuel) than the land out to 25 km (16%).
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns on Prince Edward Island · highest of 13
Fire is all but absent around the 13 towns on Prince Edward Island, Malpeque Bay included.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns are in the low band and 7.5% above it; Malpeque Bay is among the many where the yearly burn rate rounds to zero.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Flooding around Malpeque Bay is mapped in 2 studies, the newest by Department of Environment, Energy and Climate Action - Government of Prince Edward Island
Flood studies whose area touches Malpeque Bay, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
Department of Environment, Energy and Climate Action - Government of Prince Edward Island and others have studied flooding in areas that include Malpeque Bay: 2 studies, the latest from 2024.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| PEI Pluvial Flood Mapping | Department of Environment, Energy and Climate Action - Government of Prince Edward Island | 2024 | final |
| Prince Edward Island Coastal Hazards | Province of PEI, Department of Environment, Energy and Climate Action | 2021 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
100% of towns on Prince Edward Island have a flood study, more than Canada’s 58%; Malpeque Bay has one too.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
The grade leaves flood out, since a study area says nothing about how many of Malpeque Bay’s homes are at risk.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Expected shaking damage in Malpeque Bay: $0.027 a year per $1,000
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Malpeque Bay’s $0.027 is close to the typical town’s $0.030 (0.9 times as much).
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
At $0.027, Malpeque Bay is above the typical town on Prince Edward Island ($0.020); O'Leary has the most at $0.034.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Malpeque Bay’s earthquake risk lands near the centre of Canada’s range; 53% of the 2,611 towns are higher.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Only shaking damage to buildings in Malpeque Bay is counted; landslides, liquefaction, tsunami and fire after a quake aren’t.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Little radon around Malpeque Bay: 3.5% of area homes over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
At 3.5% over the guideline, the area around Malpeque Bay is under the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%. Nobody publishes radon tests for Malpeque Bay alone, so this card uses the figure for the Prince Edward Island Health Region.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
The typical town on Prince Edward Island has 3.5% over 200 Bq/m³; Malpeque Bay’s area has 3.5%, much the same.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
The quietest radon band, under 5%, holds 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns and Malpeque Bay; 63% sit higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Whatever Malpeque Bay’s area share, the reading that matters is your own home’s, over a winter.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Where to get warnings in Malpeque Bay
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Malpeque Bay; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
For fires near Malpeque Bay, the national fire information system maps danger and active fires daily; local authorities give any evacuation order.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Malpeque Bay
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malpeque Bay | Low | $0.027 | 3.5% | Yes |
| Kensington, Part 1 3,357 · 7.6 km | Low | $0.029 | 3.5% | Yes |
| Kensington 2,016 · 7.6 km | Low | $0.032 | 3.5% | Yes |
| New London 1,443 · 10 km | Low | $0.021 | 3.5% | Yes |
| Summerside 19,006 · 15 km | Low | $0.030 | 3.5% | Yes |
| Kinkora 1,416 · 17 km | Low | $0.027 | 3.5% | Yes |
| Miscouche 1,113 · 18 km | Low | $0.036 | 3.5% | Yes |
Among its neighbours Malpeque Bay has the most fire on record (low); Kensington, Part 1 follows (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Malpeque Bay faces
What to do about the hazards Malpeque Bay faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Wildfire counts one way. Burned land within 25 km of where people live, averaged over 1986–2025 and checked for fuel near homes, is the measure; it looks back, not ahead, and only ever counts against Malpeque Bay.
- Earthquakes are modelled. The earthquake figure is an expected loss, not a forecast, worked out by NRCan for each census subdivision, Malpeque Bay’s included.
- Radon is a survey. About 14,000 homes were tested across Canada in 2009–2011, and the share over the guideline for Malpeque Bay is its health region’s, the survey’s design unit.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. NRCan’s inventory says where flood mapping exists, not where water goes; the map’s owner is the authority for Malpeque Bay.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Malpeque Bay
Is radon a problem in Malpeque Bay?
In Health Canada’s survey, 3.5% of 113 homes tested in Malpeque Bay’s area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
How is Malpeque Bay’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Malpeque Bay’s Hazard risk grade is A−, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Is Malpeque Bay at risk of wildfire?
No meaningful wildfire history near Malpeque Bay: 0% of nearby land since 1986, band low.
Does Malpeque Bay flood?
There is flood mapping for Malpeque Bay on the national inventory, each study linked to its owner’s map, none of them graded.
How big is the earthquake risk in Malpeque Bay?
About $0.027 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Malpeque Bay.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).