Photo: Michael Gil from Calgary, AB, Canada · CC BY 2.0Flood mapping exists for Junction Area: 2 on record, latest by Toronto Regional Conservation Authority
For Junction Area, wildfire history is close to nil: 0% of nearby land since 1986, 0.000% a year. Earthquake risk in Junction Area is ordinary: NRCan’s model puts building losses at $0.043 a year per $1,000 of value, close to the typical town’s $0.030. In Health Canada’s survey, just 2.7% of homes tested in the area exceeded 200 Bq/m³ (6.6% typical). Junction Area grades A− for hazard risk; wildfire is low here, so it earns no credit.
What stands out about Junction Area’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Junction Area: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Junction Area faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Junction Area: A−
Risk averages earthquakes and radon; wildfire joins only where it pulls the average down, so a town like Junction Area with little fire nearby would get no credit for it.
Its place: #285 of 866 in Ontario and #700 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Only 74 homes were tested in the survey area, so the radon share is rough. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Wildfire is rare near Junction Area: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0% within 5 km
Past fire around Junction Area’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
A burn rate of 0.000% a year keeps Junction Area in the low band (the typical Canadian town: 0.000%).
Forest makes up 0.5% of the land within 5 km of Junction Area and 0.7% within 25 km, little for a forest fire to run through.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
To three decimals the burn rate around Junction Area is zero, as for 638 of the 871 towns in Ontario, while Sioux Lookout reaches 0.16%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Most of the country’s 2,610 towns are low-band (92%, against 7.5% above); around Junction Area, burning rounds to zero.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
2 flood studies cover Junction Area, the newest from Toronto Regional Conservation Authority
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Junction Area: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
Toronto Regional Conservation Authority and others have studied flooding in areas that include Junction Area: 2 studies, the latest from 2021.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Floodline Consolidation | Toronto Regional Conservation Authority | 2021 | final |
| Rockcliffe Special Policy Area | Toronto and Region Conservation Authority | 2020 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Flood maps are common in Ontario: 69% of towns have one, against 58% nationally, and Junction Area is among them.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood is shown here, never graded: a study says where a map exists, not how many of Junction Area’s homes stand in a flood zone.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Expected shaking damage in Junction Area: $0.043 a year per $1,000
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
1.4 times the typical $0.030: Junction Area’s $0.043 is ordinary.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
The median in Ontario is $0.043; Junction Area, at $0.043, is right beside it, and Alexandria tops the list at $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Around half of Canada’s 2,611 towns expect more shaking damage than Junction Area (36%).
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The model counts damage to Junction Area’s buildings and their occupants from shaking only: not liquefaction, landslides, tsunami or fires after a quake.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean). · Earthquake risk: one figure for all of the city of Toronto
2.7% of homes tested around Junction Area are over the radon guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
Junction Area’s area, at 2.7%, is below the 6.6% of the typical Canadian town, though any one home can still be high. Junction Area shares its radon tests numbers with the rest of the City of Toronto Health Unit.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
The median in Ontario is 4% over 200 Bq/m³; around Junction Area it is 2.7%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Radon rarely tops the guideline around Junction Area, as for 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 63% see more.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
One home in Junction Area can be high while next door is low; a three-month test settles it.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Junction Area
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Junction Area; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
For fires near Junction Area, the national fire information system maps danger and active fires daily; local authorities give any evacuation order.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Junction Area
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junction Area | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| High Park North 22,162 · 1.2 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | None listed |
| Weston-Pelham Park 10,680 · 1.2 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Runnymede-Bloor West Village 10,129 · 1.5 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Junction-Wallace Emerson 23,484 · 2.1 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | None listed |
| Rockcliffe-Smythe 22,242 · 2.1 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Lambton Baby Point 7,966 · 2.1 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
Junction Area’s low band tops its neighbours; High Park North is next (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Junction Area faces
What to do about the hazards Junction Area faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; Junction Area’s figure is its subdivision’s.
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around Junction Area’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in Junction Area.
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, Junction Area takes its 2007 health region’s share.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Junction Area
How is Junction Area’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Junction Area’s Hazard risk grade is A−, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
How big is the earthquake risk in Junction Area?
In NRCan’s seismic model, Junction Area’s buildings lose $0.043 per $1,000 of value in an average year.
Is radon a problem in Junction Area?
Around Junction Area, 74 survey homes were tested and 2.7% came in over 200 Bq/m³, a guide to the area, not to any one home.
Does Junction Area flood?
The inventory lists a study touching Junction Area; whether a given street floods is on that map, not in the grade.
Is Junction Area at risk of wildfire?
No meaningful wildfire history near Junction Area: 0% of nearby land since 1986, band low.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).