Photo: Robert Taylor from Stirling, ON, Canada · CC BY 2.0Black Creek is on Canada’s flood inventory: 1 listed, led by Toronto Regional Conservation Authority
No wildfire is mapped within 25 km of Black Creek’s homes since 1986 (0% of the land, 0.000% a year). Shaking is about as much of a worry in Black Creek as in most places, at $0.043 a year per $1,000 of building value ($0.030 typical). Fewer homes than usual carry radon here, 2.7% over the guideline where the typical town has 6.6%. Hazard risk gives Black Creek a grade of A−, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Black Creek’s hazards
For Black Creek, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Black Creek faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Black Creek grades A− for hazard risk
The grade weighs Black Creek’s seismic risk and radon equally, and wildfire is one-sided: a high band counts against a town, a low one earns nothing.
Its place: #285 of 866 in Ontario and #700 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. The radon share rests on 74 home tests in the survey area, so a few homes move it. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Few fires near Black Creek: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km
Past fire around Black Creek’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
At 0.000% of the land a year, Black Creek’s burn rate is in the low band; the typical Canadian town sees 0.000%.
Forest makes up 0.3% of the land within 5 km of Black Creek and 2.2% within 25 km, little for a forest fire to run through.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Near-zero burning puts Black Creek with 638 of the 871 towns in Ontario, far below Sioux Lookout at 0.16%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
The low band holds 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns, and Black Creek sits at its very bottom; only 7.5% are above it.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Toronto Regional Conservation Authority has mapped flooding for Black Creek (1 study)
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Black Creek: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
A 2021 study by Toronto Regional Conservation Authority covers Black Creek, and its map, not the inventory, shows the zones.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Floodline Consolidation | Toronto Regional Conservation Authority | 2021 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Flood maps are common in Ontario: 69% of towns have one, against 58% nationally, and Black Creek is among them.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
The grade leaves flood out, since a study area says nothing about how many of Black Creek’s homes are at risk.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Ordinary seismic risk in Black Creek: $0.043 per $1,000 of buildings a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
1.4 times the typical $0.030: Black Creek’s $0.043 is ordinary.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
About level with the typical town in Ontario: Black Creek’s $0.043 against $0.043; Alexandria reaches $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Neither high nor low for Canada: 36% of the 2,611 towns expect more damage than Black Creek.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
What a quake does after the shaking, fire, landslides, tsunami, falls outside NRCan’s figure for Black Creek.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean). · Area behind the earthquake risk figures: the city of Toronto
Radon runs low around Black Creek: 2.7% of tested homes over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
Black Creek’s survey area reads 2.7% over the guideline, under the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%. For radon tests, the only official count covers all of the City of Toronto Health Unit, Black Creek included.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Radon runs lower around Black Creek than in most towns in Ontario: 2.7% against 4%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Radon rarely tops the guideline around Black Creek, as for 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 63% see more.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
A low area share in Black Creek doesn’t clear a house, nor does a high one condemn it: test.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Where to get warnings in Black Creek
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Black Creek; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
For fires near Black Creek, the national fire information system maps danger and active fires daily; local authorities give any evacuation order.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Black Creek
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Black Creek | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Glenfield-Jane Heights 30,197 · 1.9 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| York University Heights 28,557 · 1.9 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Humbermede 16,959 · 2.9 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Humber Summit 12,194 · 4.1 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Oakdale-Beverley Heights 21,386 · 4.4 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Edgeley 7,016 · 4.4 km | Low | $0.028 | 0% | Yes |
Glenfield-Jane Heights (low) has the heaviest fire record of Black Creek’s neighbours, and Black Creek (low) matches or beats it.
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Black Creek faces
What to do about the hazards Black Creek faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in Black Creek.
- Wildfire counts one way. Burned land within 25 km of where people live, averaged over 1986–2025 and checked for fuel near homes, is the measure; it looks back, not ahead, and only ever counts against Black Creek.
- Earthquakes are modelled. The earthquake figure is an expected loss, not a forecast, worked out by NRCan for each census subdivision, Black Creek’s included.
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, Black Creek takes its 2007 health region’s share.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Black Creek
How is Black Creek’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Black Creek A−, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
Does Black Creek flood?
The inventory lists a study touching Black Creek; whether a given street floods is on that map, not in the grade.
Is Black Creek at risk of wildfire?
Hardly at all on record: 0% of the land within 25 km of Black Creek since 1986, a low band, though small grass fires aren’t mapped.
How big is the earthquake risk in Black Creek?
In NRCan’s seismic model, Black Creek’s buildings lose $0.043 per $1,000 of value in an average year.
Is radon a problem in Black Creek?
In Health Canada’s survey, 2.7% of 74 homes tested in Black Creek’s area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).