Photo: A J Butler · CC BY 3.0A flood study covers Bathurst Manor: 1 on the national inventory, the newest from Toronto Regional Conservation Authority
Around Bathurst Manor, wildfire is practically absent from the record: 0% within 25 km since 1986, 0.000% a year. Seismic risk in Bathurst Manor sits near the middle: $0.043 of expected damage per $1,000 of buildings a year, the typical town $0.030. Radon is lower than usual: 2.7% of tested homes in the survey area topped the guideline, against 6.6% for the typical town. Bathurst Manor grades A− for hazard risk; wildfire is low here, so it earns no credit.
What stands out about Bathurst Manor’s hazards
For Bathurst Manor, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Bathurst Manor faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Bathurst Manor: A−
Risk averages earthquakes and radon; wildfire joins only where it pulls the average down, so a town like Bathurst Manor with little fire nearby would get no credit for it.
Its place: #285 of 866 in Ontario and #700 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. The radon share rests on 74 home tests in the survey area, so a few homes move it. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Wildfire is rare near Bathurst Manor: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0% within 5 km
Past fire around Bathurst Manor’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
Fire claims 0.000% of the land around Bathurst Manor each year, a low band, with the typical Canadian town at 0.000%.
Forest fuel is scarce around Bathurst Manor: 0.1% of the land within 5 km, 2.4% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Among the 871 towns in Ontario, Sioux Lookout burns fastest (0.16% a year); Bathurst Manor is with the 638 near zero.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Like most of Canada’s 2,610 towns (92%), Bathurst Manor is in the low band, with a burn rate of zero to three decimals; 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
A flood study covers Bathurst Manor, from Toronto Regional Conservation Authority: 1 on the inventory
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Bathurst Manor: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
The flood study touching Bathurst Manor is Toronto Regional Conservation Authority’s, dated 2021; its own map shows the zones street by street.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Floodline Consolidation | Toronto Regional Conservation Authority | 2021 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Mapping in Ontario reaches 69% of towns, Bathurst Manor included, beside 58% across Canada.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood is shown here, never graded: a study says where a map exists, not how many of Bathurst Manor’s homes stand in a flood zone.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Ordinary seismic risk in Bathurst Manor: $0.043 per $1,000 of buildings a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
With $0.043 of shaking damage a year per $1,000, Bathurst Manor is about even with the typical $0.030 (1.4 times).
Bathurst Manor doesn’t get its own earthquake risk figures; the ones here come from the city of Toronto.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Earthquake risk around Bathurst Manor ($0.043) matches the middle in Ontario ($0.043), far from Alexandria’s $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Bathurst Manor sits mid-range among Canada’s 2,611 towns: 36% expect more shaking damage.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Only shaking damage to buildings in Bathurst Manor is counted; landslides, liquefaction, tsunami and fire after a quake aren’t.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon runs low around Bathurst Manor: 2.7% of tested homes over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
Bathurst Manor’s area, at 2.7%, is below the 6.6% of the typical Canadian town, though any one home can still be high.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Bathurst Manor’s area, at 2.7%, is below the median in Ontario (4%).
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Bathurst Manor is in the lowest band, with 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns: under 5% of tests over the guideline, while 63% have more.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
A low area share in Bathurst Manor doesn’t clear a house, nor does a high one condemn it: test.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Radon tests: one figure for all of the City of Toronto Health Unit
Where to get warnings in Bathurst Manor
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Bathurst Manor; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
For fires near Bathurst Manor, the national fire information system maps danger and active fires daily; local authorities give any evacuation order.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Bathurst Manor’s neighbours compare on hazards
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bathurst Manor | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Clanton Park 17,673 · 2.0 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Westminster-Branson 26,027 · 2.4 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Lansing-Westgate 15,980 · 2.6 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Willowdale West 17,210 · 3.0 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Newtonbrook West 23,978 · 3.1 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Yonge-Doris 20,298 · 3.4 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | None listed |
The fire record around Lansing-Westgate is a touch heavier than Bathurst Manor’s, but the band is the same: low (here low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Bathurst Manor faces
What to do about the hazards Bathurst Manor faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. NRCan’s inventory says where flood mapping exists, not where water goes; the map’s owner is the authority for Bathurst Manor.
- Earthquakes are modelled. The earthquake figure is an expected loss, not a forecast, worked out by NRCan for each census subdivision, Bathurst Manor’s included.
- Wildfire counts one way. Burned land within 25 km of where people live, averaged over 1986–2025 and checked for fuel near homes, is the measure; it looks back, not ahead, and only ever counts against Bathurst Manor.
- Radon is a survey. About 14,000 homes were tested across Canada in 2009–2011, and the share over the guideline for Bathurst Manor is its health region’s, the survey’s design unit.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Bathurst Manor
How is Bathurst Manor’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Bathurst Manor A−, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
Does Bathurst Manor flood?
There is flood mapping for Bathurst Manor on the national inventory, each study linked to its owner’s map, none of them graded.
How big is the earthquake risk in Bathurst Manor?
In NRCan’s seismic model, Bathurst Manor’s buildings lose $0.043 per $1,000 of value in an average year.
Is radon a problem in Bathurst Manor?
In Health Canada’s survey, 2.7% of 74 homes tested in Bathurst Manor’s area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
Is Bathurst Manor at risk of wildfire?
Very little by the national record: Bathurst Manor’s band is low, with 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, so wildfire doesn’t change its grade.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).