Photo: Canmenwalker · CC BY 4.0Agincourt North is on Canada’s flood inventory: 1 listed, led by Toronto Regional Conservation Authority
Around Agincourt North, wildfire is practically absent from the record: 0% within 25 km since 1986, 0.001% a year. Earthquake risk in Agincourt North is ordinary: NRCan’s model puts building losses at $0.043 a year per $1,000 of value, close to the typical town’s $0.030. Fewer homes than usual carry radon here, 2.7% over the guideline where the typical town has 6.6%. Agincourt North grades A− for hazard risk, with wildfire counted against it.
What stands out about Agincourt North’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Agincourt North: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Agincourt North faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Agincourt North: A−
Seismic risk and radon set Agincourt North’s grade, wildfire can drag it down, and flood mapping stays out of it.
Its place: #285 of 866 in Ontario and #700 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. The radon share rests on 74 home tests in the survey area, so a few homes move it. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Wildfire is rare near Agincourt North: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0% within 5 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Agincourt North’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
In a typical year 0.001% of the land near Agincourt North burns; the typical Canadian town sees 0.000%, and both are low.
Agincourt North’s homes have had no fire within 5 km since 1986; the closest was 10 km away.
Only 4.6% of the land within 25 km of Agincourt North is forest fuel, and 0.8% close in.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
The land around Agincourt North burns at 0.001% a year, the 83rd highest rate of 871 towns in Ontario; Sioux Lookout tops it at 0.16%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Agincourt North is in the low band with 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns; 7.5% sit in moderate or higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Agincourt North is on the flood map inventory: 1 study, by Toronto Regional Conservation Authority
Flood studies whose area touches Agincourt North, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
The flood study touching Agincourt North is Toronto Regional Conservation Authority’s, dated 2021; its own map shows the zones street by street.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Floodline Consolidation | Toronto Regional Conservation Authority | 2021 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
69% of towns in Ontario have a flood study, more than Canada’s 58%; Agincourt North has one too.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
The grade leaves flood out, since a study area says nothing about how many of Agincourt North’s homes are at risk.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Ordinary seismic risk in Agincourt North: $0.043 per $1,000 of buildings a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
At $0.043 per $1,000, Agincourt North’s earthquake risk is about the typical Canadian town’s ($0.030; 1.4 times).
For earthquake risk, the only official count covers all of the city of Toronto, Agincourt North included.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
The median in Ontario is $0.043; Agincourt North, at $0.043, is right beside it, and Alexandria tops the list at $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Agincourt North’s earthquake risk lands near the centre of Canada’s range; 36% of the 2,611 towns are higher.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The model counts damage to Agincourt North’s buildings and their occupants from shaking only: not liquefaction, landslides, tsunami or fires after a quake.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
2.7% of homes tested around Agincourt North are over the radon guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
Radon runs below the typical Canadian town (6.6%) in Agincourt North’s area, at 2.7%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
The median in Ontario is 4% over 200 Bq/m³; around Agincourt North it is 2.7%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
63% of Canada’s 2,611 towns have a higher share of homes over 200 Bq/m³ than Agincourt North’s band, which holds 37%.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
One home in Agincourt North can be high while next door is low; a three-month test settles it.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Radon tests: one figure for all of the City of Toronto Health Unit
Weather and fire alerts for Agincourt North
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Agincourt North; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
For fires near Agincourt North, the national fire information system maps danger and active fires daily; local authorities give any evacuation order.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Agincourt North’s neighbours compare on hazards
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agincourt North | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Milliken 24,431 · 1.5 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| East L'Amoreaux 21,533 · 2.6 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Agincourt South-Malvern West 24,438 · 2.7 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
| Milliken 12,138 · 3.3 km | Low | $0.034 | 0% | Yes |
| Underwood 5,972 · 3.6 km | Low | $0.034 | 0% | None listed |
| Tam O'Shanter-Sullivan 27,526 · 3.7 km | Low | $0.043 | 2.7% | Yes |
The neighbour with the most fire is Milliken (low), still no more than Agincourt North (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Agincourt North faces
Practical steps for Agincourt North’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. NRCan’s inventory says where flood mapping exists, not where water goes; the map’s owner is the authority for Agincourt North.
- Radon is a survey. About 14,000 homes were tested across Canada in 2009–2011, and the share over the guideline for Agincourt North is its health region’s, the survey’s design unit.
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of Agincourt North’s homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as Agincourt North’s.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Agincourt North
How is Agincourt North’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Agincourt North’s Hazard risk grade is A−, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Does Agincourt North flood?
There is flood mapping for Agincourt North on the national inventory, each study linked to its owner’s map, none of them graded.
How big is the earthquake risk in Agincourt North?
About $0.043 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Agincourt North.
Is radon a problem in Agincourt North?
The area’s survey found 2.7% of 74 tested homes above Health Canada’s guideline, so a three-month test is worth doing in Agincourt North.
Is Agincourt North at risk of wildfire?
Some, but Agincourt North’s low band (0% of nearby land burned since 1986, latest 2001) is short of the level that counts.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).