Photo: Kenn Chaplin from Toronto, Canada · CC BY-SA 2.0Hazard risk in Tay Valley is higher than in 89% of Canadian towns
The national fire record shows next to nothing around Tay Valley, 0% of the land within 25 km since 1986 (0.001% a year). Earthquakes add more: NRCan’s model puts building losses at $0.064 a year per $1,000 of value, against $0.030 for the typical town. More homes than usual carry radon here, 19% over the guideline where the typical town has 6.6%. Hazard risk gives Tay Valley a grade of D, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Tay Valley’s hazards
For Tay Valley, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Tay Valley faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Tay Valley grades D for hazard risk
For Tay Valley, Risk will be the average of earthquakes and radon, with wildfire added only if it makes the average worse.
Its place: #850 of 866 in Ontario and #2,469 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Wildfire is rare near Tay Valley: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0% within 5 km
Past fire around Tay Valley’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
A burn rate of 0.001% a year keeps Tay Valley in the low band (the typical Canadian town: 0.000%).
Fire has stayed at least 20 km from Tay Valley’s homes since 1986.
8.1% of the land within 5 km of Tay Valley is forest fuel, close to the 11% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
The land around Tay Valley burns at 0.001% a year, the 83rd highest rate of 871 towns in Ontario; Sioux Lookout tops it at 0.16%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Tay Valley is in the low band with 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns; 7.5% sit in moderate or higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
5 flood studies cover Tay Valley, the newest from Mississippi Valley Conservation Authority
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Tay Valley: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
For Tay Valley the inventory points to 5 studies, most recently Mississippi Valley Conservation Authority’s in 2026.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall River | Mississippi Valley Conservation Authority | 2026 | final |
| Lower Clyde River | Mississippi Valley Conservation Authority | 2023 | final |
| Tay River From Glen Tay Road to Lower Rideau Lake | Rideau Valley Conservation Authority | 2013 | final |
| Tay River from Christie Lake to Glen Tay | Rideau Valley Conservation Authority | 2010 | final |
| Blueberry Creek | Rideau Valley Conservation Authority | 2010 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Tay Valley is one of the 69% of towns in Ontario with a flood study on file; across Canada it is 58%.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Studies touching Tay Valley run from the 2010s to the 2020s, with the most in the 2010s: 3 of 5.
Study dates as the NRCan inventory lists them, one count per study touching Tay Valley.
Nothing here counts toward Risk; the studies are pointers to the maps their owners keep for Tay Valley.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
High seismic risk in Tay Valley: $0.064 per $1,000 of buildings a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
Tay Valley’s $0.064 is about 2.1 times the typical town’s $0.030: it sits in one of Canada’s more active seismic zones.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
At $0.064, Tay Valley is above the typical town in Ontario ($0.043); Alexandria has the most at $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Tay Valley sits above most of Canada’s 2,611 towns on earthquake risk; 29% are higher.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
For Tay Valley the model prices shaking damage to buildings, nothing more.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Test for radon in Tay Valley: 19% of area homes were over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
At 19% over the guideline, the area around Tay Valley beats the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
More homes top the guideline around Tay Valley (19%) than in the typical town in Ontario (4%); 1.9% went over 600.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Tay Valley is in the 10–20% band, with 22% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; only 4.6% are higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Neighbouring homes in Tay Valley can differ a lot; only a long-term test tells you about yours.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Radon tests published for the Leeds, Grenville and Lanark District Health Unit, not by town
Where to get warnings in Tay Valley
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Tay Valley; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
For fires near Tay Valley, the national fire information system maps danger and active fires daily; local authorities give any evacuation order.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Tay Valley’s neighbours compare on hazards
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tay Valley | Low | $0.064 | 19% | Yes |
| Perth 6,972 · 10 km | Low | $0.081 | 19% | Yes |
| Drummond/North Elmsley 8,817 · 17 km | Low | $0.088 | 19% | Yes |
Among its neighbours Tay Valley has the most fire on record (low); Drummond/North Elmsley follows (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Tay Valley faces
Practical steps for Tay Valley’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in Tay Valley.
- Wildfire counts one way. Burned land within 25 km of where people live, averaged over 1986–2025 and checked for fuel near homes, is the measure; it looks back, not ahead, and only ever counts against Tay Valley.
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, Tay Valley takes its 2007 health region’s share.
- Earthquakes are modelled. The earthquake figure is an expected loss, not a forecast, worked out by NRCan for each census subdivision, Tay Valley’s included.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Tay Valley
Is Tay Valley at risk of wildfire?
Not much by Canadian standards: Tay Valley’s band is low, with 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986 (last in 2025), so wildfire doesn’t change its grade.
How is Tay Valley’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Tay Valley grades D for hazard risk, from earthquakes and radon, with wildfire counted only where it lowers the grade.
Is radon a problem in Tay Valley?
19% of the 108 homes Health Canada tested around Tay Valley topped the guideline; your own house needs its own test.
Does Tay Valley flood?
The inventory lists a study touching Tay Valley; whether a given street floods is on that map, not in the grade.
How big is the earthquake risk in Tay Valley?
NRCan’s model expects shaking to cost buildings in Tay Valley $0.064 a year for every $1,000 of their value, on average over many years.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).