Photo: Eric Marshall · CC BY 3.0A flood study covers Smithville: 11 on the national inventory, the newest from Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority
The national fire record shows next to nothing around Smithville, 0% of the land within 25 km since 1986 (0.000% a year). Shaking is a bigger worry than in most places, at $0.060 a year per $1,000 of building value ($0.030 typical). In Health Canada’s survey, just 2% of homes tested in the area exceeded 200 Bq/m³ (6.6% typical). Smithville grades B+ for hazard risk; wildfire is low here, so it earns no credit.
What stands out about Smithville’s hazards
For Smithville, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Smithville faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Smithville: B+
Seismic risk and radon set Smithville’s grade, wildfire can drag it down, and flood mapping stays out of it.
Its place: #466 of 866 in Ontario and #907 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Little of the land around Smithville has burned: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km since 1986
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Smithville’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
Next to the typical Canadian town (0.000% a year), Smithville’s 0.000% is in the low band.
Forest fuel is scarce around Smithville: 0.2% of the land within 5 km, 0.6% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Among the 871 towns in Ontario, Sioux Lookout burns fastest (0.16% a year); Smithville is with the 638 near zero.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Measured against 2,610 towns, Smithville is in the largest group, low (92%), and at its floor, while 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Smithville is on the flood map inventory: 11 studies, latest by Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority
Flood studies whose area touches Smithville, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
For Smithville the inventory points to 11 studies, most recently Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority’s in 2025.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coyle and Draper's Creeks | Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority | 2025 | final |
| Oswego Creek | Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority | 2025 | under review |
| Welland River | Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority | 2018 | final |
| Twenty Mile Creek | Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority | 2007 | final |
| Sixteen Mile Creek | Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority | 2007 | final |
| Sinkhole Creek | Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority | 2006 | final |
| North Creek | Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority | 2006 | final |
| Spring Creek | Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority | 2006 | final |
3 more studies on the inventory touch Smithville.
Towns with a flood study on file
Smithville is one of the 69% of towns in Ontario with a flood study on file; across Canada it is 58%.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Mapping around Smithville began in the 1990s; the 2000s saw the most work (5 of 9 studies), the latest in the 2020s.
Study dates as the NRCan inventory lists them, one count per study touching Smithville.
The grade leaves flood out, since a study area says nothing about how many of Smithville’s homes are at risk.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
High seismic risk in Smithville: $0.060 per $1,000 of buildings a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Roughly 2 times the typical $0.030: Smithville’s $0.060 marks real seismic exposure.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
The typical town in Ontario expects $0.043 a year; Smithville expects $0.060, and Alexandria $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
More earthquake risk than most: only 29% of Canada’s 2,611 towns are above Smithville.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
What a quake does after the shaking, fire, landslides, tsunami, falls outside NRCan’s figure for Smithville.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon runs low around Smithville: 2% of tested homes over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
Smithville’s survey area reads 2% over the guideline, under the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Smithville’s area, at 2%, is below the median in Ontario (4%), though 2% of its tests passed 600 Bq/m³.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Few tests over the guideline: Smithville shares the bottom band with 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns, below the other 63%.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Health Canada advises testing every home, Smithville’s included, whatever the area’s figure.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Radon tests: one figure for all of the Niagara Regional Area Health Unit
Where to get warnings in Smithville
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Smithville; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
For fires near Smithville, the national fire information system maps danger and active fires daily; local authorities give any evacuation order.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Smithville
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smithville | Low | $0.060 | 2% | Yes |
| Grimsby 31,478 · 11 km | Low | $0.046 | 2% | Yes |
| Beamsville 28,356 · 13 km | Low | $0.058 | 2% | Yes |
| Fifty Point 3,690 · 16 km | Low | $0.044 | 5% | Yes |
| Industrial 6,690 · 16 km | Low | $0.044 | 5% | Yes |
| Trillium 2,967 · 18 km | Low | $0.044 | 5% | None listed |
| Westmeria 2,646 · 18 km | Low | $0.044 | 5% | None listed |
Among its neighbours Smithville has the most fire on record (low); Grimsby follows (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Smithville faces
Practical steps for Smithville’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. Seismic risk is NRCan’s model of yearly building losses from shaking, averaged over many years and given for Smithville’s census subdivision (a neighbourhood shows its city’s).
- Radon is a survey. The radon share comes from about 14,000 long-term home tests in 2009–2011, pooled for now by the 2007 health region Smithville sits in.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. A study’s area can be a whole watershed or province, so being on the inventory says a map exists, not that a home in Smithville floods.
- Wildfire counts one way. For Smithville, wildfire means how much nearby land burned in the past forty years, a one-way input that can pull Risk down and nothing more.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Smithville
How is Smithville’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Smithville grades B+ for hazard risk, from earthquakes and radon, with wildfire counted only where it lowers the grade.
Does Smithville flood?
Smithville’s area has been studied for flooding, and the owner’s map shows which streets lie in a zone; the grade leaves flood out.
Is Smithville at risk of wildfire?
Hardly at all on record: 0% of the land within 25 km of Smithville since 1986, a low band, though small grass fires aren’t mapped.
Is radon a problem in Smithville?
The area’s survey found 2% of 100 tested homes above Health Canada’s guideline, so a three-month test is worth doing in Smithville.
How big is the earthquake risk in Smithville?
Expected earthquake damage in Smithville comes to $0.060 a year for each $1,000 that buildings are worth.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).