Photo: DaPuglet · CC BY-SA 2.0Vanier South is on Canada’s flood inventory: 1 listed, led by Rideau Valley Conservation Authority
Wildfire isn’t Vanier South’s worry: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986 (0.000% a year). Earthquakes add more: NRCan’s model puts building losses at $0.15 a year per $1,000 of value, against $0.030 for the typical town. In Health Canada’s survey, 6.2% of homes tested in Vanier South’s area exceeded 200 Bq/m³, close to the typical 6.6%. Vanier South grades C+ for hazard risk; wildfire is low here, so it earns no credit.
What stands out about Vanier South’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Vanier South: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Vanier South faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Vanier South grades C+ for hazard risk
Risk averages earthquakes and radon; wildfire joins only where it pulls the average down, so a town like Vanier South with little fire nearby would get no credit for it.
Its place: #703 of 866 in Ontario and #1,894 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. The radon share rests on 64 home tests in the survey area, so a few homes move it. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Wildfire is rare near Vanier South: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0% within 5 km
Past fire around Vanier South’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
A burn rate of 0.000% a year keeps Vanier South in the low band (the typical Canadian town: 0.000%).
The closest burn since 1986 lies 20 km from Vanier South’s homes, none within 5 km.
The forest starts beyond town: 1.1% of the land within 5 km of Vanier South’s homes is forest fuel, against 8.2% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Fire has taken almost none of the land around Vanier South, as for 638 of the 871 towns in Ontario; Sioux Lookout tops the list at 0.16%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Only 7.5% of Canada’s 2,610 towns are above the low band, which holds 92%; Vanier South, at a rounded zero, is far from them.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Vanier South is on the flood map inventory: 1 study, by Rideau Valley Conservation Authority
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Vanier South: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
One study on the inventory touches Vanier South, Rideau Valley Conservation Authority’s from 2016, and its area can be large, so it says a map exists, not that the town floods.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rideau River, Hogs Back to Rideau Falls | Rideau Valley Conservation Authority | 2016 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Its flood study puts Vanier South with 69% of towns in Ontario; Canada’s share is 58%.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
The grade leaves flood out, since a study area says nothing about how many of Vanier South’s homes are at risk.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Earthquakes cost buildings in Vanier South $0.15 per $1,000 a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
At $0.15 per $1,000, Vanier South carries roughly 5 times the typical Canadian town’s earthquake risk ($0.030).
For earthquake risk, the only official count covers all of the city of Ottawa, Vanier South included.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
The typical town in Ontario expects $0.043 a year; Vanier South expects $0.15, and Alexandria $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
15% of Canada’s 2,611 towns expect more shaking damage than Vanier South, which places it in the upper third.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The loss is to Vanier South’s buildings alone, from ground shaking; infrastructure and secondary hazards are left out.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon about average around Vanier South: 6.2% over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
Vanier South’s area sits close to the typical Canadian town: 6.2% over the guideline, against 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
The median in Ontario is 4% over 200 Bq/m³; the survey area around Vanier South has 6.2%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
26% of Canada’s 2,611 towns have more homes over 200 Bq/m³ than Vanier South’s 5–10% band, which holds 37%.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
A survey sample isn’t a map: any home in Vanier South can be high, and a three-month test is the only way to know.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Radon tests: one figure for all of the City of Ottawa Health Unit
Weather and fire alerts for Vanier South
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Vanier South; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
In fire season, check CWFIS for danger and active fires around Vanier South, and listen to local authorities for orders.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Vanier South
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanier South | Low | $0.15 | 6.2% | Yes |
| Vanier North 10,498 · 0.9 km | Low | $0.15 | 6.2% | Yes |
| Overbrook 19,953 · 1.0 km | Low | $0.15 | 6.2% | Yes |
| Sandy Hill 13,830 · 1.9 km | Low | $0.15 | 6.2% | Yes |
| Manor Park 9,491 · 1.9 km | Low | $0.15 | 6.2% | Yes |
| New Edinburgh 5,728 · 2.0 km | Low | $0.15 | 6.2% | Yes |
| Lowertown East 6,996 · 2.1 km | Low | $0.15 | 6.2% | Yes |
Vanier North burns a little more than Vanier South, in the same low band (low here).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Vanier South faces
What to do about the hazards Vanier South faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap the water heater down.
- Keep 72 hours of supplies.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
- Is earthquake cover included?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. A study’s area can be a whole watershed or province, so being on the inventory says a map exists, not that a home in Vanier South floods.
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; Vanier South’s figure is its subdivision’s.
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around Vanier South’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
- Radon is a survey. The radon share comes from about 14,000 long-term home tests in 2009–2011, pooled for now by the 2007 health region Vanier South sits in.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Vanier South
Is radon a problem in Vanier South?
In Health Canada’s survey, 6.2% of 64 homes tested in Vanier South’s area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
How is Vanier South’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Vanier South’s Hazard risk grade is C+, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Does Vanier South flood?
Vanier South’s area has been studied for flooding, and the owner’s map shows which streets lie in a zone; the grade leaves flood out.
Is Vanier South at risk of wildfire?
Less than most of Canada: 0% of the land within 25 km of Vanier South has burned since 1986, the last in 2014, a low band that leaves Risk alone.
How big is the earthquake risk in Vanier South?
NRCan’s model expects shaking to cost buildings in Vanier South $0.15 a year for every $1,000 of their value, on average over many years.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).