Photo: Earth Science and Remote Sensing Unit , Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center · Public domainFlood mapping exists for Kinburn: 1 on record, latest by Mississippi Valley Conservation Authority
Wildfire is rare near Kinburn: 0.1% of the land within 25 km has burned since 1986, a burn rate of 0.002% a year. Seismic risk runs high: $0.15 of expected damage per $1,000 of buildings a year, the typical town $0.030. In Health Canada’s survey, 6.2% of homes tested in Kinburn’s area exceeded 200 Bq/m³, close to the typical 6.6%. Hazard risk gives Kinburn a grade of C+; its wildfire band pulls it down.
What stands out about Kinburn’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Kinburn: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Kinburn faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Kinburn grades C+ for hazard risk
Risk averages earthquakes and radon; wildfire joins only where it pulls the average down, so a town like Kinburn with little fire nearby would get no credit for it.
Its place: #703 of 866 in Ontario and #1,894 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. The radon share rests on 64 home tests in the survey area, so a few homes move it. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Few fires near Kinburn: 0% within 5 km, 0.1% within 25 km
Past fire around Kinburn’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
Around Kinburn fire takes 0.002% of the land in a typical year, the typical Canadian town 0.000%, which is low.
Fire has stayed at least 9.9 km from Kinburn’s homes since 1986.
There is forest near Kinburn’s homes (12% within 5 km) and more of it further out (20% within 25 km).
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
In the top quarter in Ontario: Kinburn ranks 54th of 871 at 0.002% a year, with Sioux Lookout first at 0.16%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
7.5% of Canada’s 2,610 towns burn fast enough to rank moderate or above; Kinburn stays low, with 92%.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Kinburn is on the flood map inventory: 1 study, by Mississippi Valley Conservation Authority
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Kinburn: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
A 2019 study by Mississippi Valley Conservation Authority covers Kinburn, and its map, not the inventory, shows the zones.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lower Mississippi River Flood Plain Mapping Study | Mississippi Valley Conservation Authority | 2019 | final · not public |
Towns with a flood study on file
Mapping in Ontario reaches 69% of towns, Kinburn included, beside 58% across Canada.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
The grade leaves flood out, since a study area says nothing about how many of Kinburn’s homes are at risk.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Shaking is Kinburn’s costliest hazard: $0.15 a year per $1,000
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
At $0.15 per $1,000, Kinburn carries roughly 5 times the typical Canadian town’s earthquake risk ($0.030).
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
At $0.15, Kinburn is above the typical town in Ontario ($0.043); Alexandria has the most at $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
In the upper part of Canada’s range: 15% of its 2,611 towns expect more damage than Kinburn.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The model counts damage to Kinburn’s buildings and their occupants from shaking only: not liquefaction, landslides, tsunami or fires after a quake.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean). · Earthquake risk: one figure for all of the city of Ottawa
Radon about average around Kinburn: 6.2% over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline. · Source area for radon tests: the City of Ottawa Health Unit
The survey area of Kinburn reads 6.2%, a shade from the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
More homes top the guideline around Kinburn (6.2%) than in the typical town in Ontario (4%).
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
A middling share of high tests puts Kinburn with 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns, below 26% of them.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Basements, soil and how a house is sealed decide its radon, so in Kinburn only a test can say.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Kinburn
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Kinburn; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
In fire season, check CWFIS for danger and active fires around Kinburn, and listen to local authorities for orders.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Kinburn
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
None of the places around has more fire nearby than Kinburn (low); Fitzroy comes closest (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Kinburn faces
What to do about the hazards Kinburn faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap the water heater down.
- Keep 72 hours of supplies.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
- Is earthquake cover included?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. Flood studies cover areas of every size, which is why the page lists them for Kinburn without grading them.
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of Kinburn’s homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as Kinburn’s.
- Radon is a survey. Radon figures pool the survey’s home tests by area: postal areas once their boundaries arrive, the 2007 health region around Kinburn until then.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Kinburn
Is radon a problem in Kinburn?
In Health Canada’s survey, 6.2% of 64 homes tested in Kinburn’s area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
How big is the earthquake risk in Kinburn?
NRCan’s model expects shaking to cost buildings in Kinburn $0.15 a year for every $1,000 of their value, on average over many years.
Does Kinburn flood?
A flood study covers Kinburn on Canada’s Flood Map Inventory; open the owner’s map to check a street, since flood isn’t graded.
Is Kinburn at risk of wildfire?
Less than most of Canada: 0.1% of the land within 25 km of Kinburn has burned since 1986, the last in 2021, a low band that leaves Risk alone.
How is Kinburn’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Kinburn’s Hazard risk grade is C+, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).