Photo: ceedub13 · CC BY 2.0Wildfire low, radon 6.2%: how Carlington stands on hazards
No wildfire is mapped within 25 km of Carlington’s homes since 1986 (0% of the land, 0.001% a year). Seismic risk runs high: $0.15 of expected damage per $1,000 of buildings a year, the typical town $0.030. Carlington grades C+ for hazard risk; wildfire is low here, so it earns no credit.
What stands out about Carlington’s hazards
For Carlington, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Carlington faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Carlington: C+
Risk averages earthquakes and radon; wildfire joins only where it pulls the average down, so a town like Carlington with little fire nearby would get no credit for it.
Its place: #703 of 866 in Ontario and #1,894 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Only 64 homes were tested in the survey area, so the radon share is rough. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Wildfire is rare near Carlington: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0% within 5 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Carlington’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
Around Carlington fire takes 0.001% of the land in a typical year, the typical Canadian town 0.000%, which is low.
Nothing inside 5 km of Carlington’s homes has burned since 1986, and the nearest scar is 18 km off.
Close to Carlington there is little to burn (0.6% forest fuel within 5 km), but 7.9% of the land within 25 km is forest.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
In the top quarter in Ontario: Carlington ranks 83rd of 871 at 0.001% a year, with Sioux Lookout first at 0.16%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Low, like 92% of the country’s 2,610 towns: the land around Carlington burns, but slower than in the 7.5% above it.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
No flood study is listed for Carlington
Flood studies whose area touches Carlington, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
The inventory has nothing for Carlington, but a local or conservation-authority map may still exist.
Towns with a flood study on file
Carlington has no flood study on file, though 69% of towns in Ontario do (Canada: 58%).
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
The grade leaves flood out, since a study area says nothing about how many of Carlington’s homes are at risk.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
High seismic risk in Carlington: $0.15 per $1,000 of buildings a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
At $0.15 per $1,000, Carlington carries roughly 5 times the typical Canadian town’s earthquake risk ($0.030).
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Earthquake risk in Ontario peaks in Alexandria ($0.21); Carlington, at $0.15, sits above the median of $0.043.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
15% of Canada’s 2,611 towns expect more shaking damage than Carlington, which places it in the upper third.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
For Carlington the model prices shaking damage to buildings, nothing more.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean). · Earthquake risk: the city of Ottawa
Some radon around Carlington: 6.2% of area homes over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline. · Source area for radon tests: the City of Ottawa Health Unit
Carlington’s area, at 6.2%, is close to the 6.6% of the typical Canadian town.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Radon runs higher around Carlington than in most towns in Ontario: 6.2% against 4%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
26% of Canada’s 2,611 towns have more homes over 200 Bq/m³ than Carlington’s 5–10% band, which holds 37%.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Neighbouring homes in Carlington can differ a lot; only a long-term test tells you about yours.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Where to get warnings in Carlington
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Carlington; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
For fires near Carlington, the national fire information system maps danger and active fires daily; local authorities give any evacuation order.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Carlington
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlington | Low | $0.15 | 6.2% | None listed |
| Fisher Heights 6,451 · 1.8 km | Low | $0.15 | 6.2% | None listed |
| Westboro 12,899 · 2.1 km | Low | $0.15 | 6.2% | Yes |
| Braemar Park-Belair Heights-Copeland Park 9,248 · 2.2 km | Low | $0.15 | 6.2% | None listed |
| Laurentian 11,133 · 2.2 km | Low | $0.15 | 6.2% | Yes |
| Carleton Heights-Courtland Park 8,621 · 2.5 km | Low | $0.15 | 6.2% | Yes |
| Civic Hospital 6,091 · 2.6 km | Low | $0.15 | 6.2% | None listed |
None of the places around has more fire nearby than Carlington (low); Westboro comes closest (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Carlington faces
What to do about the hazards Carlington faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap the water heater down.
- Keep 72 hours of supplies.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
- Is earthquake cover included?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. NRCan’s inventory says where flood mapping exists, not where water goes; the map’s owner is the authority for Carlington.
- Radon is a survey. About 14,000 homes were tested across Canada in 2009–2011, and the share over the guideline for Carlington is its health region’s, the survey’s design unit.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Seismic risk is NRCan’s model of yearly building losses from shaking, averaged over many years and given for Carlington’s census subdivision (a neighbourhood shows its city’s).
- Wildfire counts one way. For Carlington, wildfire means how much nearby land burned in the past forty years, a one-way input that can pull Risk down and nothing more.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Carlington
Is Carlington at risk of wildfire?
Less than most of Canada: 0% of the land within 25 km of Carlington has burned since 1986, the last in 2014, a low band that leaves Risk alone.
How big is the earthquake risk in Carlington?
About $0.15 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Carlington.
Does Carlington flood?
Nothing is listed for Carlington on the national inventory (0); local maps may still exist with the municipality.
Is radon a problem in Carlington?
In Health Canada’s survey, 6.2% of 64 homes tested in Carlington’s area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
How is Carlington’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Carlington C+, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).