Photo: P199 · CC BY-SA 4.0Bayshore is on Canada’s flood inventory: 1 listed, led by Rideau Valley Conservation Authority
Wildfire barely registers for Bayshore, at 0% of the land within 25 km since 1986 (0.001% a year). Seismic risk runs high: $0.15 of expected damage per $1,000 of buildings a year, the typical town $0.030. Bayshore’s survey area, 6.2% over the radon guideline, is close to the typical town’s 6.6%. Hazard risk gives Bayshore a grade of C+, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Bayshore’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Bayshore: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Bayshore faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Bayshore: C+
For Bayshore, Risk will be the average of earthquakes and radon, with wildfire added only if it makes the average worse.
Its place: #703 of 866 in Ontario and #1,894 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. The radon share rests on 64 home tests in the survey area, so a few homes move it. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Little of the land around Bayshore has burned: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km since 1986
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Bayshore’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
In a typical year 0.001% of the land near Bayshore burns; the typical Canadian town sees 0.000%, and both are low.
No fire has burned within 5 km of Bayshore’s homes since 1986; the nearest burn is 16 km away.
Close to Bayshore there is little to burn (2.8% forest fuel within 5 km), but 9.5% of the land within 25 km is forest.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
In the top quarter in Ontario: Bayshore ranks 83rd of 871 at 0.001% a year, with Sioux Lookout first at 0.16%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Bayshore is in the low band with 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns; 7.5% sit in moderate or higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
A flood study covers Bayshore, from Rideau Valley Conservation Authority: 1 on the inventory
Flood studies whose area touches Bayshore, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
A 2014 study by Rideau Valley Conservation Authority covers Bayshore, and its map, not the inventory, shows the zones.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa River | Rideau Valley Conservation Authority | 2014 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Its flood study puts Bayshore with 69% of towns in Ontario; Canada’s share is 58%.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
The grade leaves flood out, since a study area says nothing about how many of Bayshore’s homes are at risk.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Shaking is Bayshore’s costliest hazard: $0.15 a year per $1,000
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Roughly 5 times the typical $0.030: Bayshore’s $0.15 marks real seismic exposure.
Bayshore doesn’t get its own earthquake risk figures; the ones here come from the city of Ottawa.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
The typical town in Ontario expects $0.043 a year; Bayshore expects $0.15, and Alexandria $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
More earthquake risk than most: only 15% of Canada’s 2,611 towns are above Bayshore.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The loss is to Bayshore’s buildings alone, from ground shaking; infrastructure and secondary hazards are left out.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
6.2% of homes tested around Bayshore are over the radon guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline. · The radon tests numbers here cover the City of Ottawa Health Unit
Near the middle for radon: Bayshore’s area 6.2%, the typical Canadian town 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
The median in Ontario is 4% over 200 Bq/m³; the survey area around Bayshore has 6.2%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns share Bayshore’s band of 5 to 10%; 26% sit higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
The survey sampled homes around Bayshore; it can’t tell you your basement’s level.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Bayshore
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Bayshore; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
In fire season, check CWFIS for danger and active fires around Bayshore, and listen to local authorities for orders.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Bayshore’s neighbours compare on hazards
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayshore | Low | $0.15 | 6.2% | Yes |
| Crystal Bay - Lakeview Park 6,059 · 1.4 km | Low | $0.15 | 6.2% | Yes |
| Qualicum - Redwood 4,761 · 1.5 km | Low | $0.15 | 6.2% | Yes |
| Britannia 8,421 · 1.6 km | Low | $0.15 | 6.2% | Yes |
| Queensway Terrace North 3,160 · 1.6 km | Low | $0.15 | 6.2% | Yes |
| Iris 5,733 · 1.9 km | Low | $0.15 | 6.2% | None listed |
| Leslie Park - Bruce Farm 3,056 · 2.0 km | Low | $0.15 | 6.2% | None listed |
Crystal Bay - Lakeview Park burns a little more than Bayshore, in the same low band (low here).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Bayshore faces
Practical steps for Bayshore’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap the water heater down.
- Keep 72 hours of supplies.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
- Is earthquake cover included?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in Bayshore.
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; Bayshore’s figure is its subdivision’s.
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, Bayshore takes its 2007 health region’s share.
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around Bayshore’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Bayshore
Is Bayshore at risk of wildfire?
Some, but Bayshore’s low band (0% of nearby land burned since 1986, latest 2014) is short of the level that counts.
Is radon a problem in Bayshore?
The area’s survey found 6.2% of 64 tested homes above Health Canada’s guideline, so a three-month test is worth doing in Bayshore.
Does Bayshore flood?
The inventory lists a study touching Bayshore; whether a given street floods is on that map, not in the grade.
How is Bayshore’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Bayshore grades C+ for hazard risk, from earthquakes and radon, with wildfire counted only where it lowers the grade.
How big is the earthquake risk in Bayshore?
About $0.15 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Bayshore.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).