Photo: K Danko · CC BY-SA 3.0Northern Bruce Peninsula’s hazards at a glance: a low wildfire record and 11% of area homes over the radon guideline
Wildfire barely registers for Northern Bruce Peninsula, at 0% of the land within 25 km since 1986 (0.000% a year). Seismic risk runs low: $0.012 of expected damage per $1,000 of buildings a year, the typical town $0.030. Hazard risk gives Northern Bruce Peninsula a grade of B+, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Northern Bruce Peninsula’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Northern Bruce Peninsula: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Northern Bruce Peninsula faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Northern Bruce Peninsula grades B+ for hazard risk
Seismic risk and radon set Northern Bruce Peninsula’s grade, wildfire can drag it down, and flood mapping stays out of it.
Its place: #605 of 866 in Ontario and #1,387 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Few fires near Northern Bruce Peninsula: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Northern Bruce Peninsula’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
Around Northern Bruce Peninsula fire takes 0.000% of the land in a typical year, the typical Canadian town 0.000%, which is low.
More forest grows near Northern Bruce Peninsula’s homes (62% within 5 km) than across 25 km (52%).
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Sioux Lookout has the highest burn rate in Ontario, 0.16% a year; around Northern Bruce Peninsula, as around 638 of the 871 towns, it rounds to zero.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
The low band holds 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns, and Northern Bruce Peninsula sits at its very bottom; only 7.5% are above it.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
The flood map inventory lists nothing for Northern Bruce Peninsula
Flood studies whose area touches Northern Bruce Peninsula, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
There is no study for Northern Bruce Peninsula on the national flood inventory, which is far from complete.
Towns with a flood study on file
Northern Bruce Peninsula has no flood study on file, though 69% of towns in Ontario do (Canada: 58%).
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Listed, not scored: a flood study proves a map exists, not that Northern Bruce Peninsula floods.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Low seismic risk in Northern Bruce Peninsula: $0.012 per $1,000 of buildings a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Shaking costs the typical town $0.030 a year; in Northern Bruce Peninsula it is only $0.012, 0.4 times as much.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Northern Bruce Peninsula’s $0.012 sits under the median in Ontario, $0.043, and well under Alexandria’s $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Toward the quiet end of Canada’s range: 84% of its 2,611 towns sit above Northern Bruce Peninsula.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The model counts damage to Northern Bruce Peninsula’s buildings and their occupants from shaking only: not liquefaction, landslides, tsunami or fires after a quake.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon runs high around Northern Bruce Peninsula: 11% of tested homes over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline. · Area-wide: radon tests, counted over the Grey Bruce Health Unit
Northern Bruce Peninsula’s area, at 11%, is above the 6.6% of the typical Canadian town, so testing is worth more here than most places.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Around Northern Bruce Peninsula, 11% of tests were over 200 Bq/m³ and 1% over 600, against a median of 4% in Ontario.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
The 10–20% band holds 22% of Canada’s 2,611 towns, Northern Bruce Peninsula among them; 4.6% rank above.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
One home in Northern Bruce Peninsula can be high while next door is low; a three-month test settles it.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Northern Bruce Peninsula
Alerts for Northern Bruce Peninsula come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Evacuation orders for Northern Bruce Peninsula come from the municipality or the province, while CWFIS maps fire danger every day.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Get ready for what Northern Bruce Peninsula faces
Practical steps for Northern Bruce Peninsula’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Radon is a survey. The radon share comes from about 14,000 long-term home tests in 2009–2011, pooled for now by the 2007 health region Northern Bruce Peninsula sits in.
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; Northern Bruce Peninsula’s figure is its subdivision’s.
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around Northern Bruce Peninsula’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. A study’s area can be a whole watershed or province, so being on the inventory says a map exists, not that a home in Northern Bruce Peninsula floods.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Northern Bruce Peninsula
How big is the earthquake risk in Northern Bruce Peninsula?
Expected earthquake damage in Northern Bruce Peninsula comes to $0.012 a year for each $1,000 that buildings are worth.
Does Northern Bruce Peninsula flood?
The inventory has 0 studies for Northern Bruce Peninsula, and an empty list isn’t a clean bill: the municipality holds any flood maps.
How is Northern Bruce Peninsula’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Northern Bruce Peninsula’s Hazard risk grade is B+, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Is radon a problem in Northern Bruce Peninsula?
The area’s survey found 11% of 98 tested homes above Health Canada’s guideline, so a three-month test is worth doing in Northern Bruce Peninsula.
Is Northern Bruce Peninsula at risk of wildfire?
Very little by the national record: Northern Bruce Peninsula’s band is low, with 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, so wildfire doesn’t change its grade.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).