Photo: P199 · CC BY-SA 3.0Flood mapping exists for North Kawartha: 2 on record, latest by Crowe Valley Conservation Authority
The burned-area map is nearly blank around North Kawartha, 0% within 25 km since 1986, 0.000% a year. Shaking is about as much of a worry in North Kawartha as in most places, at $0.029 a year per $1,000 of building value ($0.030 typical). In Health Canada’s survey, 8.9% of homes tested in North Kawartha’s area exceeded 200 Bq/m³, close to the typical 6.6%. North Kawartha grades B− for hazard risk; wildfire is low here, so it earns no credit.
What stands out about North Kawartha’s hazards
For North Kawartha, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What North Kawartha faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in North Kawartha: B−
Seismic risk and radon set North Kawartha’s grade, wildfire can drag it down, and flood mapping stays out of it.
Its place: #654 of 866 in Ontario and #1,597 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Wildfire is rare near North Kawartha: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0% within 5 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where North Kawartha’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
At 0.000% of the land a year, North Kawartha’s burn rate is in the low band; the typical Canadian town sees 0.000%.
No fire has burned within 5 km of North Kawartha’s homes since 1986; the nearest burn is 20 km away.
More forest grows near North Kawartha’s homes (46% within 5 km) than across 25 km (29%).
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Sioux Lookout has the highest burn rate in Ontario, 0.16% a year; around North Kawartha, as around 638 of the 871 towns, it rounds to zero.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Only 7.5% of Canada’s 2,610 towns are above the low band, which holds 92%; North Kawartha, at a rounded zero, is far from them.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Flooding around North Kawartha is mapped in 2 studies, the newest by Crowe Valley Conservation Authority
Flood studies whose area touches North Kawartha, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
Crowe Valley Conservation Authority and others have studied flooding in areas that include North Kawartha: 2 studies, the latest from 2024.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chandos Lake FHIMP | Crowe Valley Conservation Authority | 2024 | under review · not public |
| Crowe River FHIMP | Crowe Valley Conservation Authority | 2024 | under review · not public |
Towns with a flood study on file
Flood maps are common in Ontario: 69% of towns have one, against 58% nationally, and North Kawartha is among them.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Nothing here counts toward Risk; the studies are pointers to the maps their owners keep for North Kawartha.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Earthquakes cost buildings in North Kawartha $0.029 per $1,000 a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
With $0.029 of shaking damage a year per $1,000, North Kawartha sits right at the typical $0.030.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Below the middle in Ontario: North Kawartha’s $0.029 against a median of $0.043; Alexandria has $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Neither high nor low for Canada: 51% of the 2,611 towns expect more damage than North Kawartha.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Only shaking damage to buildings in North Kawartha is counted; landslides, liquefaction, tsunami and fire after a quake aren’t.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Some radon around North Kawartha: 8.9% of area homes over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
8.9% of tested homes around North Kawartha were over the guideline, much like the typical Canadian town at 6.6%. North Kawartha shares its radon tests numbers with the rest of the Peterborough County-City Health Unit.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
North Kawartha’s area, at 8.9%, is above the median in Ontario (4%), and 0.9% of its tests passed 600 Bq/m³.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns share North Kawartha’s band of 5 to 10%; 26% sit higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Health Canada advises testing every home, North Kawartha’s included, whatever the area’s figure.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Where to get warnings in North Kawartha
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for North Kawartha; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Smoke and fire warnings for North Kawartha come through Environment Canada and Alert Ready; the fire map is CWFIS’s.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Get ready for what North Kawartha faces
Practical steps for North Kawartha’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Wildfire counts one way. Burned land within 25 km of where people live, averaged over 1986–2025 and checked for fuel near homes, is the measure; it looks back, not ahead, and only ever counts against North Kawartha.
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, North Kawartha takes its 2007 health region’s share.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in North Kawartha.
- Earthquakes are modelled. The earthquake figure is an expected loss, not a forecast, worked out by NRCan for each census subdivision, North Kawartha’s included.
Questions about flooding and hazards in North Kawartha
How is North Kawartha’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
North Kawartha grades B− for hazard risk, from earthquakes and radon, with wildfire counted only where it lowers the grade.
Is North Kawartha at risk of wildfire?
Some, but North Kawartha’s low band (0% of nearby land burned since 1986, latest 2025) is short of the level that counts.
Does North Kawartha flood?
The inventory lists a study touching North Kawartha; whether a given street floods is on that map, not in the grade.
Is radon a problem in North Kawartha?
The area’s survey found 8.9% of 112 tested homes above Health Canada’s guideline, so a three-month test is worth doing in North Kawartha.
How big is the earthquake risk in North Kawartha?
About $0.029 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for North Kawartha.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).