Photo: Canmenwalker · CC BY 4.0Hazard risk in Erindale is lower than in 86% of Canadian towns
The burned-area map is nearly blank around Erindale, 0% within 25 km since 1986, 0.000% a year. Seismic risk in Erindale sits near the middle: $0.040 of expected damage per $1,000 of buildings a year, the typical town $0.030. In Health Canada’s survey, just 0% of homes tested in the area exceeded 200 Bq/m³ (6.6% typical). Erindale grades A for hazard risk; wildfire is low here, so it earns no credit.
What stands out about Erindale’s hazards
For Erindale, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Erindale faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Erindale grades A for hazard risk
Two inputs always count for Erindale, earthquakes and radon; the third, wildfire, counts only against a town.
Its place: #194 of 866 in Ontario and #529 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Wildfire is rare near Erindale: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0% within 5 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Erindale’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
Around Erindale fire takes 0.000% of the land in a typical year, the typical Canadian town 0.000%, which is low.
With 0.7% forest fuel within 5 km and 0.7% within 25 km, the land around Erindale gives a fire little to burn.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
To three decimals the burn rate around Erindale is zero, as for 638 of the 871 towns in Ontario, while Sioux Lookout reaches 0.16%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Like most of Canada’s 2,610 towns (92%), Erindale is in the low band, with a burn rate of zero to three decimals; 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Erindale is on the flood map inventory: 8 studies, latest by Credit Valley Conservation Authority
Flood studies whose area touches Erindale, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
Credit Valley Conservation Authority and others have studied flooding in areas that include Erindale: 8 studies, the latest from 2020.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floodplain Mapping Loyalist Creek | Credit Valley Conservation Authority | 2020 | final · not public |
| Kenolli Creek | Credit Valley Conservation Authority | 2019 | final · not public |
| Mary Fix Creek | Credit Valley Conservation Authority | 2019 | final · not public |
| Stavebank Creek | Credit Valley Conservation Authority | 2019 | final · not public |
| Wolfedale Creek | Credit Valley Conservation Authority | 2019 | final · not public |
| Credit River | Credit Valley Conservation Authority | 2005 | final · not public |
| Sawmill Creek | Credit Valley Conservation Authority | 2005 | final · not public |
| Mullett Creek | Credit Valley Conservation Authority | 1997 | final · not public |
Towns with a flood study on file
69% of towns in Ontario have a flood study, more than Canada’s 58%; Erindale has one too.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Studies touching Erindale run from the 1990s to the 2020s, with the most in the 2010s: 4 of 8.
Study dates as the NRCan inventory lists them, one count per study touching Erindale.
The grade leaves flood out, since a study area says nothing about how many of Erindale’s homes are at risk.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Earthquakes cost buildings in Erindale $0.040 per $1,000 a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Nothing unusual about Erindale’s ground: $0.040 against a typical $0.030, 1.3 times.
Behind earthquake risk sits data gathered across the city of Mississauga, with Erindale one part of it.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Earthquake risk around Erindale ($0.040) matches the middle in Ontario ($0.043), far from Alexandria’s $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Neither high nor low for Canada: 43% of the 2,611 towns expect more damage than Erindale.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Only shaking damage to buildings in Erindale is counted; landslides, liquefaction, tsunami and fire after a quake aren’t.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
0% of homes tested around Erindale are over the radon guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
Radon runs below the typical Canadian town (6.6%) in Erindale’s area, at 0%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Radon runs lower around Erindale than in most towns in Ontario: 0% against 4%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
The quietest radon band, under 5%, holds 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns and Erindale; 63% sit higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Neighbouring homes in Erindale can differ a lot; only a long-term test tells you about yours.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Radon tests: one figure for all of the Peel Regional Health Unit
Where to get warnings in Erindale
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Erindale; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
In fire season, check CWFIS for danger and active fires around Erindale, and listen to local authorities for orders.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Erindale’s neighbours compare on hazards
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erindale | Low | $0.040 | 0% | Yes |
| Cooksville NHD (West) 14,821 · 2.1 km | Low | $0.040 | 0% | Yes |
| Fairview 7,597 · 2.3 km | Low | $0.040 | 0% | Yes |
| Creditview 10,972 · 2.4 km | Low | $0.040 | 0% | Yes |
| Sheridan 15,775 · 3.0 km | Low | $0.040 | 0% | Yes |
| DT Core 33,003 · 3.1 km | Low | $0.040 | 0% | Yes |
| DT Cooksville 8,864 · 3.5 km | Low | $0.040 | 0% | Yes |
Cooksville NHD (West) (low) has the heaviest fire record of Erindale’s neighbours, and Erindale (low) matches or beats it.
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Erindale faces
What to do about the hazards Erindale faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. The earthquake figure is an expected loss, not a forecast, worked out by NRCan for each census subdivision, Erindale’s included.
- Wildfire counts one way. Burned land within 25 km of where people live, averaged over 1986–2025 and checked for fuel near homes, is the measure; it looks back, not ahead, and only ever counts against Erindale.
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, Erindale takes its 2007 health region’s share.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in Erindale.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Erindale
Is radon a problem in Erindale?
Around Erindale, 90 survey homes were tested and 0% came in over 200 Bq/m³, a guide to the area, not to any one home.
Does Erindale flood?
The inventory lists a study touching Erindale; whether a given street floods is on that map, not in the grade.
How is Erindale’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Erindale A, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
How big is the earthquake risk in Erindale?
Expected earthquake damage in Erindale comes to $0.040 a year for each $1,000 that buildings are worth.
Is Erindale at risk of wildfire?
The burned-area record shows next to nothing around Erindale (0% within 25 km since 1986), so its band is low.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).