Photo: P199 · CC BY-SA 3.0Few places are as safe from hazards as Lucan: it beats 96% of Canadian towns
The burned-area map is nearly blank around Lucan, 0% within 25 km since 1986, 0.000% a year. Shaking is less of a worry than in most places, at $0.015 a year per $1,000 of building value ($0.030 typical). Radon is lower than usual: 1.8% of tested homes in the survey area topped the guideline, against 6.6% for the typical town. Lucan grades A+ for hazard risk; wildfire is low here, so it earns no credit.
What stands out about Lucan’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Lucan: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Lucan faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Lucan: A+
Risk averages earthquakes and radon; wildfire joins only where it pulls the average down, so a town like Lucan with little fire nearby would get no credit for it.
Its place: #17 of 866 in Ontario and #240 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Wildfire is rare near Lucan: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0% within 5 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Lucan’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
The land within 25 km of Lucan burns at 0.000% a year on average, the low band; the typical Canadian town: 0.000%.
Little near Lucan’s homes can carry a forest fire; only 0.5% of the land within 5 km is forest fuel, and 0.7% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Near-zero burning puts Lucan with 638 of the 871 towns in Ontario, far below Sioux Lookout at 0.16%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Measured against 2,610 towns, Lucan is in the largest group, low (92%), and at its floor, while 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
No flood study is listed for Lucan
Flood studies whose area touches Lucan, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
The inventory has nothing for Lucan, but a local or conservation-authority map may still exist.
Towns with a flood study on file
Lucan has no flood study on file, though 69% of towns in Ontario do (Canada: 58%).
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood studies don’t enter the grade; they are listed so you can open the official map for Lucan.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Little shaking expected in Lucan: $0.015 a year per $1,000
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
0.5 times the typical $0.030: Lucan’s $0.015 is low for Canada.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Lucan’s $0.015 sits under the median in Ontario, $0.043, and well under Alexandria’s $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
72% of Canada’s 2,611 towns expect more shaking damage than Lucan.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The model counts damage to Lucan’s buildings and their occupants from shaking only: not liquefaction, landslides, tsunami or fires after a quake.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
1.8% of homes tested around Lucan are over the radon guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline. · Area-wide: radon tests, counted over the Middlesex-London Health Unit
A lower share than most: 1.8% of tested homes around Lucan, the typical Canadian town 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
The median in Ontario is 4% over 200 Bq/m³; around Lucan it is 1.8%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Radon rarely tops the guideline around Lucan, as for 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 63% see more.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Basements, soil and how a house is sealed decide its radon, so in Lucan only a test can say.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Lucan
Alerts for Lucan come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Alert Ready carries evacuation orders for Lucan to phones; CWFIS shows the day’s fire danger.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Lucan’s neighbours compare on hazards
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucan | Low | $0.015 | 1.8% | None listed |
| Exeter 10,781 · 18 km | Low | $0.014 | 11% | None listed |
| Sunningdale 21,645 · 19 km | Low | $0.020 | 1.8% | None listed |
| Uplands 8,819 · 19 km | Low | $0.020 | 1.8% | None listed |
The fire record around Exeter is a touch heavier than Lucan’s, but the band is the same: low (here low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Lucan faces
What to do about the hazards Lucan faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around Lucan’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in Lucan.
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, Lucan takes its 2007 health region’s share.
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; Lucan’s figure is its subdivision’s.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Lucan
How is Lucan’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Lucan grades A+ for hazard risk, from earthquakes and radon, with wildfire counted only where it lowers the grade.
Does Lucan flood?
With 0 studies on the inventory, Lucan’s flood risk is unmapped nationally; check with the municipality before buying.
Is radon a problem in Lucan?
Around Lucan, 110 survey homes were tested and 1.8% came in over 200 Bq/m³, a guide to the area, not to any one home.
How big is the earthquake risk in Lucan?
Expected earthquake damage in Lucan comes to $0.015 a year for each $1,000 that buildings are worth.
Is Lucan at risk of wildfire?
Very little by the national record: Lucan’s band is low, with 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, so wildfire doesn’t change its grade.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).