Photo: P199 · CC BY-SA 3.0A flood study covers Lakeshore: 1 on the national inventory, the newest from Essex Region Conservation Authority / County of Essex
Wildfire is rare near Lakeshore: 0.1% of the land within 25 km has burned since 1986, a burn rate of 0.002% a year. For earthquakes Lakeshore is middling, $0.020 a year per $1,000 against $0.030 for the typical town. More homes than usual carry radon here, 14% over the guideline where the typical town has 6.6%. Lakeshore grades C+ for hazard risk, with wildfire counted against it.
What stands out about Lakeshore’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Lakeshore: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Lakeshore faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Lakeshore grades C+ for hazard risk
For Lakeshore, Risk will be the average of earthquakes and radon, with wildfire added only if it makes the average worse.
Its place: #807 of 866 in Ontario and #1,999 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Wildfire is rare near Lakeshore: 0.1% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0% within 5 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Lakeshore’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
Low: the land around Lakeshore burns at 0.002% a year, where the typical Canadian town sees 0.000%.
Lakeshore’s homes have had no fire within 5 km since 1986; the closest was 19 km away.
Little near Lakeshore’s homes can carry a forest fire; only 0.1% of the land within 5 km is forest fuel, and 1.1% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
At 0.002% a year, Lakeshore is near the top in Ontario: 54th of 871, behind Sioux Lookout (0.16%).
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
7.5% of Canada’s 2,610 towns burn fast enough to rank moderate or above; Lakeshore stays low, with 92%.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Lakeshore is on the flood map inventory: 1 study, by Essex Region Conservation Authority / County of Essex
Flood studies whose area touches Lakeshore, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
The flood study touching Lakeshore is Essex Region Conservation Authority / County of Essex’s, dated 2024; its own map shows the zones street by street.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Essex Region | Essex Region Conservation Authority / County of Essex | 2024 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Flood maps are common in Ontario: 69% of towns have one, against 58% nationally, and Lakeshore is among them.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
The grade leaves flood out, since a study area says nothing about how many of Lakeshore’s homes are at risk.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Earthquakes cost buildings in Lakeshore $0.020 per $1,000 a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
With $0.020 of shaking damage a year per $1,000, Lakeshore is about even with the typical $0.030 (0.7 times).
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Below the middle in Ontario: Lakeshore’s $0.020 against a median of $0.043; Alexandria has $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Around half of Canada’s 2,611 towns expect more shaking damage than Lakeshore (64%).
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The loss is to Lakeshore’s buildings alone, from ground shaking; infrastructure and secondary hazards are left out.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
14% of homes tested around Lakeshore are over the radon guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
the typical Canadian town has 6.6% over the guideline; Lakeshore’s area has 14%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Radon runs higher around Lakeshore than in most towns in Ontario: 14% over the guideline (4% is typical), 1% over 600.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
More high tests than most: Lakeshore sits in a band that only 22% of Canada’s 2,611 towns share, with 4.6% above.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
One home in Lakeshore can be high while next door is low; a three-month test settles it.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Radon tests: the Windsor-Essex County Health Unit
Weather and fire alerts for Lakeshore
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Lakeshore; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
For fires near Lakeshore, the national fire information system maps danger and active fires daily; local authorities give any evacuation order.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Lakeshore
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakeshore | Low | $0.020 | 14% | Yes |
| Tecumseh 25,554 · 13 km | Low | $0.019 | 14% | Yes |
| East Riverside 15,758 · 16 km | Low | $0.019 | 14% | Yes |
| Forest Glade 21,328 · 16 km | Low | $0.019 | 14% | Yes |
| Riverside 21,828 · 19 km | Low | $0.019 | 14% | Yes |
The fire record around Riverside is a touch heavier than Lakeshore’s, but the band is the same: low (here low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Lakeshore faces
Practical steps for Lakeshore’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of Lakeshore’s homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as Lakeshore’s.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in Lakeshore.
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, Lakeshore takes its 2007 health region’s share.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Lakeshore
How big is the earthquake risk in Lakeshore?
About $0.020 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Lakeshore.
Is radon a problem in Lakeshore?
The area’s survey found 14% of 195 tested homes above Health Canada’s guideline, so a three-month test is worth doing in Lakeshore.
How is Lakeshore’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Lakeshore grades C+ for hazard risk, from earthquakes and radon, with wildfire counted only where it lowers the grade.
Does Lakeshore flood?
The inventory lists a study touching Lakeshore; whether a given street floods is on that map, not in the grade.
Is Lakeshore at risk of wildfire?
Some, but Lakeshore’s low band (0.1% of nearby land burned since 1986, latest 2010) is short of the level that counts.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).