Photo: Sam Nabi · CC BY-SA 4.0Flood mapping exists for Victoria Park: 1 on record, latest by Grand River Conservation Authority
Wildfire isn’t Victoria Park’s worry: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986 (0.000% a year). Earthquake risk in Victoria Park is ordinary: NRCan’s model puts building losses at $0.022 a year per $1,000 of value, close to the typical town’s $0.030. Radon is lower than usual: 4% of tested homes in the survey area topped the guideline, against 6.6% for the typical town. Victoria Park grades A− for hazard risk; wildfire is low here, so it earns no credit.
What stands out about Victoria Park’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Victoria Park: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Victoria Park faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Victoria Park: A−
Two inputs always count for Victoria Park, earthquakes and radon; the third, wildfire, counts only against a town.
Its place: #237 of 866 in Ontario and #594 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Wildfire is rare near Victoria Park: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0% within 5 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Victoria Park’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
Forty years of fire maps put Victoria Park at 0.000% a year, low next to the typical Canadian town’s 0.000%.
Forest fuel is scarce around Victoria Park: 0.5% of the land within 5 km, 3.1% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Sioux Lookout has the highest burn rate in Ontario, 0.16% a year; around Victoria Park, as around 638 of the 871 towns, it rounds to zero.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Measured against 2,610 towns, Victoria Park is in the largest group, low (92%), and at its floor, while 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
A flood study covers Victoria Park, from Grand River Conservation Authority: 1 on the inventory
Flood studies whose area touches Victoria Park, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
One study on the inventory touches Victoria Park, Grand River Conservation Authority’s from 2018, and its area can be large, so it says a map exists, not that the town floods.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grand River Regulatory Floodplain | Grand River Conservation Authority | 2018 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Its flood study puts Victoria Park with 69% of towns in Ontario; Canada’s share is 58%.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Nothing here counts toward Risk; the studies are pointers to the maps their owners keep for Victoria Park.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Ordinary seismic risk in Victoria Park: $0.022 per $1,000 of buildings a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
At $0.022 per $1,000, Victoria Park’s earthquake risk is about the typical Canadian town’s ($0.030; 0.7 times).
Victoria Park shares its earthquake risk numbers with the rest of the city of Kitchener.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Earthquake risk in Ontario peaks in Alexandria ($0.21); Victoria Park, at $0.022, is below the median of $0.043.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Victoria Park sits mid-range among Canada’s 2,611 towns: 61% expect more shaking damage.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Roads, pipes and bridges aren’t in Victoria Park’s figure, nor landslides or tsunami: it is buildings and shaking.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
4% of homes tested around Victoria Park are over the radon guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline. · Area-wide: radon tests, counted over the Waterloo Health Unit
At 4% over the guideline, the area around Victoria Park is under the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Victoria Park’s area, at 4%, is close to the median in Ontario (4%).
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
The quietest radon band, under 5%, holds 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns and Victoria Park; 63% sit higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Basements, soil and how a house is sealed decide its radon, so in Victoria Park only a test can say.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Victoria Park
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Victoria Park; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
For fires near Victoria Park, the national fire information system maps danger and active fires daily; local authorities give any evacuation order.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Victoria Park
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victoria Park | Low | $0.022 | 4% | Yes |
| Mill Courtland Woodside Park 3,319 · 0.8 km | Low | $0.022 | 4% | Yes |
| City Commercial Core 2,581 · 1.1 km | Low | $0.022 | 4% | Yes |
| Cedar Hill 3,190 · 1.1 km | Low | $0.022 | 4% | Yes |
| Cherry Hill 6,304 · 1.1 km | Low | $0.022 | 4% | Yes |
| Meinzinger Park-Lakeside 5,007 · 1.5 km | Low | $0.022 | 4% | Yes |
| Southdale 5,277 · 1.7 km | Low | $0.022 | 4% | Yes |
Among its neighbours Victoria Park has the most fire on record (low); Mill Courtland Woodside Park follows (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Victoria Park faces
What to do about the hazards Victoria Park faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, Victoria Park takes its 2007 health region’s share.
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; Victoria Park’s figure is its subdivision’s.
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around Victoria Park’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in Victoria Park.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Victoria Park
Is Victoria Park at risk of wildfire?
Very little by the national record: Victoria Park’s band is low, with 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, so wildfire doesn’t change its grade.
How big is the earthquake risk in Victoria Park?
About $0.022 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Victoria Park.
Does Victoria Park flood?
The inventory lists a study touching Victoria Park; whether a given street floods is on that map, not in the grade.
How is Victoria Park’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Victoria Park A−, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
Is radon a problem in Victoria Park?
In Health Canada’s survey, 4% of 101 homes tested in Victoria Park’s area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).