Photo: P199 · CC BY-SA 3.0Few places are as safe from hazards as Hornepayne: it beats almost every Canadian town
Burn scars are few around Hornepayne, with 0.4% of the land within 25 km touched by fire since 1986 (0.009% a year). Shaking is less of a worry than in most places, at $0.005 a year per $1,000 of building value ($0.030 typical). Fewer homes than usual carry radon here, 1% over the guideline where the typical town has 6.6%. Hazard risk gives Hornepayne a grade of A+; its wildfire band pulls it down.
What stands out about Hornepayne’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Hornepayne: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Hornepayne faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hornepayne grades A+ for hazard risk
Risk averages earthquakes and radon; wildfire joins only where it pulls the average down, so a town like Hornepayne with little fire nearby would get no credit for it.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Wildfire is rare near Hornepayne: 0.4% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0.1% within 5 km
Past fire around Hornepayne’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
A burn rate of 0.009% a year keeps Hornepayne in the low band (the typical Canadian town: 0.000%).
Near or far, forest fuel covers a similar share around Hornepayne: 89% within 5 km and 87% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 872
Hornepayne ranks 24th of the 872 towns in Ontario for burn rate, at 0.009% a year; Sioux Lookout leads with 0.16%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Some fire is mapped around Hornepayne, but not enough to leave the low band, where 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns are; 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
The flood map inventory lists nothing for Hornepayne
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Hornepayne: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
An empty entry for Hornepayne on the inventory isn’t proof of safety; ask locally for flood maps.
Towns with a flood study on file
Hornepayne has no flood study on file, though 69% of towns in Ontario do (Canada: 58%).
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Nothing here counts toward Risk; the studies are pointers to the maps their owners keep for Hornepayne.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Earthquakes cost buildings in Hornepayne just $0.005 per $1,000 a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
Hornepayne’s $0.005 is a fraction of the typical town’s $0.030 (0.2 times as much): quiet ground by Canadian standards.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
The typical town in Ontario expects $0.043 a year in shaking damage; Hornepayne expects less, $0.005, and Alexandria the most, $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Nearly every one of Canada’s 2,611 towns (96%) expects more shaking damage than Hornepayne.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The model counts damage to Hornepayne’s buildings and their occupants from shaking only: not liquefaction, landslides, tsunami or fires after a quake.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Little radon around Hornepayne: 1% of area homes over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline. · Area-wide: radon tests, counted over the Porcupine Health Unit
Where the typical Canadian town has 6.6% of homes over the guideline, Hornepayne’s area has fewer, 1%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Radon runs lower around Hornepayne than in most towns in Ontario: 1% against 4%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Hornepayne is in the lowest band, with 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns: under 5% of tests over the guideline, while 63% have more.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
The share describes the area, not a house: in Hornepayne as anywhere, test to be sure.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Hornepayne
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Hornepayne; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
In fire season, check CWFIS for danger and active fires around Hornepayne, and listen to local authorities for orders.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Get ready for what Hornepayne faces
What to do about the hazards Hornepayne faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. Flood studies cover areas of every size, which is why the page lists them for Hornepayne without grading them.
- Radon is a survey. Radon figures pool the survey’s home tests by area: postal areas once their boundaries arrive, the 2007 health region around Hornepayne until then.
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around Hornepayne’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; Hornepayne’s figure is its subdivision’s.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Hornepayne
Is Hornepayne at risk of wildfire?
Less than most of Canada: 0.4% of the land within 25 km of Hornepayne has burned since 1986, the last in 1999, a low band that leaves Risk alone.
How big is the earthquake risk in Hornepayne?
In NRCan’s seismic model, Hornepayne’s buildings lose $0.005 per $1,000 of value in an average year.
Does Hornepayne flood?
Nothing is listed for Hornepayne on the national inventory (0); local maps may still exist with the municipality.
Is radon a problem in Hornepayne?
In Health Canada’s survey, 1% of 96 homes tested in Hornepayne’s area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
How is Hornepayne’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Hornepayne A+, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).