Photo: Laslovarga · CC BY-SA 3.0Flood mapping exists for Carlisle: 1 on record, latest by Conservation Halton
The national fire record shows next to nothing around Carlisle, 0% of the land within 25 km since 1986 (0.000% a year). Shaking is about as much of a worry in Carlisle as in most places, at $0.044 a year per $1,000 of building value ($0.030 typical). About as many homes carry radon around Carlisle as elsewhere, 5% over the guideline where the typical town has 6.6%. Hazard risk gives Carlisle a grade of B+, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Carlisle’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Carlisle: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Carlisle faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Carlisle grades B+ for hazard risk
For Carlisle, Risk will be the average of earthquakes and radon, with wildfire added only if it makes the average worse.
Its place: #494 of 866 in Ontario and #1,255 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Few fires near Carlisle: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Carlisle’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
Next to the typical Canadian town (0.000% a year), Carlisle’s 0.000% is in the low band.
Near or far, forest fuel covers a similar share around Carlisle: 7.1% within 5 km and 5.9% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Little or nothing burns around Carlisle in a typical year; 638 of the 871 towns in Ontario share that, and Sioux Lookout leads at 0.16%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
The low band holds 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns, and Carlisle sits at its very bottom; only 7.5% are above it.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Carlisle is on the flood map inventory: 1 study, by Conservation Halton
Flood studies whose area touches Carlisle, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
Conservation Halton studied flooding in an area that includes Carlisle (2020); open its map to see which streets lie in a flood zone.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Halton Shoreline Flood Hazard | Conservation Halton | 2020 | final · not public |
Towns with a flood study on file
Flood maps are common in Ontario: 69% of towns have one, against 58% nationally, and Carlisle is among them.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Listed, not scored: a flood study proves a map exists, not that Carlisle floods.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Expected shaking damage in Carlisle: $0.044 a year per $1,000
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Earthquake losses in Carlisle, $0.044 per $1,000, are in line with the typical $0.030 (1.5 times).
For earthquake risk, the only official count covers all of the city of Hamilton, Carlisle included.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
The median in Ontario is $0.043; Carlisle, at $0.044, is right beside it, and Alexandria tops the list at $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
In the upper part of Canada’s range: 32% of its 2,611 towns expect more damage than Carlisle.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The loss is to Carlisle’s buildings alone, from ground shaking; infrastructure and secondary hazards are left out.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
5% of homes tested around Carlisle are over the radon guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline. · Radon tests for the City of Hamilton Health Unit
Around Carlisle, 5% of tested homes topped the guideline, near the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Carlisle’s area, at 5%, is above the median in Ontario (4%).
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Between 5% and 10% of tests over the guideline: Carlisle, and 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 26% are higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
The share describes the area, not a house: in Carlisle as anywhere, test to be sure.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Carlisle
Alerts for Carlisle come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Fire danger and active fires near Carlisle are mapped daily by the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System; evacuation orders come from the municipality or province.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Carlisle
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle | Low | $0.044 | 5% | Yes |
| Freelton 2,724 · 3.7 km | Low | $0.044 | 5% | Yes |
| Waterdown 23,858 · 9.6 km | Low | $0.044 | 5% | Yes |
| Colborne 7,447 · 13 km | Low | $0.044 | 5% | Yes |
| York Road 4,931 · 14 km | Low | $0.044 | 5% | Yes |
| Burlington 197,737 · 14 km | Low | $0.047 | 4.1% | Yes |
| Golf Course 3,741 · 15 km | Low | $0.044 | 5% | None listed |
The neighbour with the most fire is Freelton (low), still no more than Carlisle (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Carlisle faces
Practical steps for Carlisle’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as Carlisle’s.
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of Carlisle’s homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
- Radon is a survey. Radon figures pool the survey’s home tests by area: postal areas once their boundaries arrive, the 2007 health region around Carlisle until then.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. Flood studies cover areas of every size, which is why the page lists them for Carlisle without grading them.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Carlisle
How is Carlisle’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Carlisle grades B+ for hazard risk, from earthquakes and radon, with wildfire counted only where it lowers the grade.
How big is the earthquake risk in Carlisle?
About $0.044 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Carlisle.
Does Carlisle flood?
A flood study covers Carlisle on Canada’s Flood Map Inventory; open the owner’s map to check a street, since flood isn’t graded.
Is Carlisle at risk of wildfire?
No meaningful wildfire history near Carlisle: 0% of nearby land since 1986, band low.
Is radon a problem in Carlisle?
5% of the 100 homes Health Canada tested around Carlisle topped the guideline; your own house needs its own test.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).