Photo: P199 · CC BY-SA 3.0Hazard risk in Georgian Bay is lower than in 94% of Canadian towns
Wildfire isn’t Georgian Bay’s worry: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986 (0.000% a year). Shaking is about as much of a worry in Georgian Bay as in most places, at $0.019 a year per $1,000 of building value ($0.030 typical). Fewer homes than usual carry radon here, 0.9% over the guideline where the typical town has 6.6%. Georgian Bay grades A for hazard risk; wildfire is low here, so it earns no credit.
What stands out about Georgian Bay’s hazards
For Georgian Bay, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Georgian Bay faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Georgian Bay grades A for hazard risk
The grade weighs Georgian Bay’s seismic risk and radon equally, and wildfire is one-sided: a high band counts against a town, a low one earns nothing.
Its place: #21 of 866 in Ontario and #263 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Little of the land around Georgian Bay has burned: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km since 1986
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Georgian Bay’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
Low by Canadian standards: 0.000% of the land a year around Georgian Bay, 0.000% for the typical Canadian town.
No fire has burned within 5 km of Georgian Bay’s homes since 1986; the nearest burn is 24 km away.
35% of the land within 5 km of Georgian Bay is forest fuel, close to the 30% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Fire has taken almost none of the land around Georgian Bay, as for 638 of the 871 towns in Ontario; Sioux Lookout tops the list at 0.16%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Georgian Bay shares the low band with 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns, its burn rate rounding to nothing; 7.5% burn faster.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
District Municipality of Muskoka has mapped flooding for Georgian Bay (1 study)
Flood studies whose area touches Georgian Bay, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
One study on the inventory touches Georgian Bay, District Municipality of Muskoka’s from 2024, and its area can be large, so it says a map exists, not that the town floods.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| District of Muskoka Floodplain Mapping | District Municipality of Muskoka | 2024 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
69% of towns in Ontario have a flood study, more than Canada’s 58%; Georgian Bay has one too.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Nothing here counts toward Risk; the studies are pointers to the maps their owners keep for Georgian Bay.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Expected shaking damage in Georgian Bay: $0.019 a year per $1,000
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
0.6 times the typical $0.030: Georgian Bay’s $0.019 is ordinary.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Earthquake risk in Ontario peaks in Alexandria ($0.21); Georgian Bay, at $0.019, is below the median of $0.043.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Earthquakes cost less around Georgian Bay than in 66% of Canada’s 2,611 towns.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
For Georgian Bay the model prices shaking damage to buildings, nothing more.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon runs low around Georgian Bay: 0.9% of tested homes over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline. · Measured across the Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit: radon tests
Where the typical Canadian town has 6.6% of homes over the guideline, Georgian Bay’s area has fewer, 0.9%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Georgian Bay’s area, at 0.9%, is below the median in Ontario (4%).
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Radon rarely tops the guideline around Georgian Bay, as for 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 63% see more.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Radon varies from house to house in Georgian Bay, so the survey is a reason to test, not a result for yours.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Where to get warnings in Georgian Bay
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Georgian Bay; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
In fire season, check CWFIS for danger and active fires around Georgian Bay, and listen to local authorities for orders.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Get ready for what Georgian Bay faces
What to do about the hazards Georgian Bay faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. NRCan’s inventory says where flood mapping exists, not where water goes; the map’s owner is the authority for Georgian Bay.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Seismic risk is NRCan’s model of yearly building losses from shaking, averaged over many years and given for Georgian Bay’s census subdivision (a neighbourhood shows its city’s).
- Radon is a survey. About 14,000 homes were tested across Canada in 2009–2011, and the share over the guideline for Georgian Bay is its health region’s, the survey’s design unit.
- Wildfire counts one way. For Georgian Bay, wildfire means how much nearby land burned in the past forty years, a one-way input that can pull Risk down and nothing more.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Georgian Bay
How is Georgian Bay’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Georgian Bay’s Hazard risk grade is A, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Does Georgian Bay flood?
There is flood mapping for Georgian Bay on the national inventory, each study linked to its owner’s map, none of them graded.
Is radon a problem in Georgian Bay?
In Health Canada’s survey, 0.9% of 109 homes tested in Georgian Bay’s area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
Is Georgian Bay at risk of wildfire?
Less than most of Canada: 0% of the land within 25 km of Georgian Bay has burned since 1986, the last in 1999, a low band that leaves Risk alone.
How big is the earthquake risk in Georgian Bay?
Expected earthquake damage in Georgian Bay comes to $0.019 a year for each $1,000 that buildings are worth.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).