Hazard risk in Van Kirk is lower than in 89% of Canadian towns
No wildfire is mapped within 25 km of Van Kirk’s homes since 1986 (0% of the land, 0.000% a year). Seismic risk in Van Kirk sits near the middle: $0.030 of expected damage per $1,000 of buildings a year, the typical town $0.030. Radon is lower than usual: 0% of tested homes in the survey area topped the guideline, against 6.6% for the typical town. Hazard risk gives Van Kirk a grade of A, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Van Kirk’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Van Kirk: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Van Kirk faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Van Kirk: A
Two inputs always count for Van Kirk, earthquakes and radon; the third, wildfire, counts only against a town.
Its place: #105 of 866 in Ontario and #417 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Few fires near Van Kirk: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km
Past fire around Van Kirk’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
With 0.000% burned a year, Van Kirk is among the many low-band places (the typical Canadian town 0.000%).
Close to Van Kirk there is little to burn (0.1% forest fuel within 5 km), but 6.7% of the land within 25 km is forest.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Fire has taken almost none of the land around Van Kirk, as for 638 of the 871 towns in Ontario; Sioux Lookout tops the list at 0.16%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Most of the country’s 2,610 towns are low-band (92%, against 7.5% above); around Van Kirk, burning rounds to zero.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
2 flood studies cover Van Kirk, the newest from Toronto Regional Conservation Authority
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Van Kirk: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
2 studies on the inventory touch Van Kirk, the newest Toronto Regional Conservation Authority’s from 2021, and their areas can be large, so they say maps exist, not that the town floods.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Floodline Consolidation | Toronto Regional Conservation Authority | 2021 | final |
| Fletcher's Creek | Credit Valley Conservation Authority | 2005 | final · not public |
Towns with a flood study on file
Its flood study puts Van Kirk with 69% of towns in Ontario; Canada’s share is 58%.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
No single decade dominates: 2 studies for Van Kirk between the 2000s and the 2020s.
Study dates as the NRCan inventory lists them, one count per study touching Van Kirk.
Flood studies don’t enter the grade; they are listed so you can open the official map for Van Kirk.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Ordinary seismic risk in Van Kirk: $0.030 per $1,000 of buildings a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
Van Kirk’s $0.030 is the typical figure ($0.030): ordinary ground for Canada.
Nobody publishes earthquake risk for Van Kirk alone, so this card uses the figure for the city of Brampton.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
The typical town in Ontario expects $0.043 a year in shaking damage; Van Kirk expects less, $0.030, and Alexandria the most, $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Van Kirk’s earthquake risk lands near the centre of Canada’s range; 48% of the 2,611 towns are higher.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Roads, pipes and bridges aren’t in Van Kirk’s figure, nor landslides or tsunami: it is buildings and shaking.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
0% of homes tested around Van Kirk are over the radon guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline. · Source area for radon tests: the Peel Regional Health Unit
Van Kirk’s area, at 0%, is below the 6.6% of the typical Canadian town, though any one home can still be high.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Radon runs lower around Van Kirk than in most towns in Ontario: 0% against 4%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
The quietest radon band, under 5%, holds 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns and Van Kirk; 63% sit higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
One home in Van Kirk can be high while next door is low; a three-month test settles it.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Van Kirk
Alerts for Van Kirk come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Alert Ready carries evacuation orders for Van Kirk to phones; CWFIS shows the day’s fire danger.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Van Kirk
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Van Kirk | Low | $0.030 | 0% | Yes |
| Fletchers Meadow North 11,870 · 1.3 km | Low | $0.030 | 0% | Yes |
| Snelgrove 11,109 · 1.8 km | Low | $0.030 | 0% | Yes |
| Fletchers Meadow South 9,214 · 2.1 km | Low | $0.030 | 0% | Yes |
| Heart Lake North 8,539 · 2.3 km | Low | $0.030 | 0% | Yes |
| Mount Pleasant North 10,103 · 2.5 km | Low | $0.030 | 0% | Yes |
| Alloa 29,669 · 2.6 km | Low | $0.030 | 0% | Yes |
Nowhere around Van Kirk burns more: Fletchers Meadow North, the closest rival, is low to its low.
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Van Kirk faces
What to do about the hazards Van Kirk faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Radon is a survey. The radon share comes from about 14,000 long-term home tests in 2009–2011, pooled for now by the 2007 health region Van Kirk sits in.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. A study’s area can be a whole watershed or province, so being on the inventory says a map exists, not that a home in Van Kirk floods.
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around Van Kirk’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; Van Kirk’s figure is its subdivision’s.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Van Kirk
How big is the earthquake risk in Van Kirk?
NRCan’s model expects shaking to cost buildings in Van Kirk $0.030 a year for every $1,000 of their value, on average over many years.
Is Van Kirk at risk of wildfire?
The burned-area record shows next to nothing around Van Kirk (0% within 25 km since 1986), so its band is low.
Is radon a problem in Van Kirk?
In Health Canada’s survey, 0% of 90 homes tested in Van Kirk’s area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
Does Van Kirk flood?
Van Kirk’s area has been studied for flooding, and the owner’s map shows which streets lie in a zone; the grade leaves flood out.
How is Van Kirk’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Van Kirk grades A for hazard risk, from earthquakes and radon, with wildfire counted only where it lowers the grade.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).