Photo: XeresNelro · CC BY-SA 4.0Bracebridge faces fewer hazards than 90% of Canadian towns
Wildfire isn’t Bracebridge’s worry: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986 (0.000% a year). Shaking is about as much of a worry in Bracebridge as in most places, at $0.023 a year per $1,000 of building value ($0.030 typical). In Health Canada’s survey, just 0.9% of homes tested in the area exceeded 200 Bq/m³ (6.6% typical). Hazard risk gives Bracebridge a grade of A, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Bracebridge’s hazards
For Bracebridge, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Bracebridge faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Bracebridge: A
Seismic risk and radon set Bracebridge’s grade, wildfire can drag it down, and flood mapping stays out of it.
Its place: #100 of 866 in Ontario and #409 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Little of the land around Bracebridge has burned: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km since 1986
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Bracebridge’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
Low: the land around Bracebridge burns at 0.000% a year, where the typical Canadian town sees 0.000%.
Fire has stayed at least 21 km from Bracebridge’s homes since 1986.
About as much forest grows next to Bracebridge’s homes (19% within 5 km) as across 25 km (24%).
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
To three decimals the burn rate around Bracebridge is zero, as for 638 of the 871 towns in Ontario, while Sioux Lookout reaches 0.16%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Bracebridge shares the low band with 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns, its burn rate rounding to nothing; 7.5% burn faster.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Bracebridge is on the flood map inventory: 1 study, by District Municipality of Muskoka
Flood studies whose area touches Bracebridge, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
One study on the inventory touches Bracebridge, District Municipality of Muskoka’s from 2024, and its area can be large, so it says a map exists, not that the town floods.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| District of Muskoka Floodplain Mapping | District Municipality of Muskoka | 2024 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Mapping in Ontario reaches 69% of towns, Bracebridge included, beside 58% across Canada.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
The grade leaves flood out, since a study area says nothing about how many of Bracebridge’s homes are at risk.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Expected shaking damage in Bracebridge: $0.023 a year per $1,000
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
0.8 times the typical $0.030: Bracebridge’s $0.023 is ordinary.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Bracebridge’s $0.023 sits under the median in Ontario, $0.043, and well under Alexandria’s $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Middle of the pack: 54% of Canada’s 2,611 towns have more earthquake risk than Bracebridge.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
What a quake does after the shaking, fire, landslides, tsunami, falls outside NRCan’s figure for Bracebridge.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon runs low around Bracebridge: 0.9% of tested homes over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline. · Measured across the Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit: radon tests
Bracebridge’s survey area reads 0.9% over the guideline, under the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
The median in Ontario is 4% over 200 Bq/m³; around Bracebridge it is 0.9%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Under 5% puts Bracebridge with 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 63% have more high tests.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Neighbouring homes in Bracebridge can differ a lot; only a long-term test tells you about yours.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Where to get warnings in Bracebridge
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Bracebridge; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
In fire season, check CWFIS for danger and active fires around Bracebridge, and listen to local authorities for orders.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Bracebridge’s neighbours compare on hazards
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bracebridge | Low | $0.023 | 0.9% | Yes |
| Gravenhurst 14,576 · 16 km | Low | $0.024 | 0.9% | Yes |
Nowhere around Bracebridge burns more: Gravenhurst, the closest rival, is low to its low.
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Bracebridge faces
Practical steps for Bracebridge’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. Flood studies cover areas of every size, which is why the page lists them for Bracebridge without grading them.
- Radon is a survey. Radon figures pool the survey’s home tests by area: postal areas once their boundaries arrive, the 2007 health region around Bracebridge until then.
- Wildfire counts one way. Burned land within 25 km of where people live, averaged over 1986–2025 and checked for fuel near homes, is the measure; it looks back, not ahead, and only ever counts against Bracebridge.
- Earthquakes are modelled. The earthquake figure is an expected loss, not a forecast, worked out by NRCan for each census subdivision, Bracebridge’s included.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Bracebridge
Does Bracebridge flood?
A flood study covers Bracebridge on Canada’s Flood Map Inventory; open the owner’s map to check a street, since flood isn’t graded.
Is Bracebridge at risk of wildfire?
Some, but Bracebridge’s low band (0% of nearby land burned since 1986, latest 2025) is short of the level that counts.
Is radon a problem in Bracebridge?
The area’s survey found 0.9% of 109 tested homes above Health Canada’s guideline, so a three-month test is worth doing in Bracebridge.
How is Bracebridge’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Bracebridge’s Hazard risk grade is A, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
How big is the earthquake risk in Bracebridge?
About $0.023 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Bracebridge.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).